- The #3 Purdue Boilermakers travel to Champaign to face the #12 Illinois Fighting Illini on Tuesday
- Purdue can clinch a second straight outright Big Ten regular-season title with a win
- See the Purdue vs Illinois predictions, odds, and player props for March 5
The two top teams in the Big Ten square off on Tuesday as the #3 Purdue Boilermakers (26-3, 13-5 Big Ten, 6-3 away, 15-12-2 ATS) meet the #12 Illinois Fighting Illini (22-7, 13-5 Big Ten, 15-2 home, 15-11-3 ATS) at the State Farm Center in Champaign, IL.
Tip-off is scheduled for 7:00 pm ET on Peacock and Illinois is listed as a slight home favorite.
Purdue vs Illinois Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Purdue Boilermakers | +2.5 (-115) | +115 | Over 163.5 (-110) |
| Illinois Fighting Illini | -2.5 (-105) | -138 | Under 163.5 (-110) |
Illinois is a 2.5-point favorite in Tuesday’s college basketball odds and -138 on the moneyline. Purdue comes back at +115 to win straight-up while the total is at a massive 163.5.
Odds as of March 5 at BetMGM. Claim the BetMGM North Carolina promo before launch on March 11.
Purdue One Win Away from Outright Big Ten Title
The Boilermakers have already earned a share of the Big Ten regular-season title, and the Illini are the only team that can keep the Boilermakers from a second straight outright Big Ten crown. (To earn a share of the title, Illinois needs to win out to get to 13-5 and also needs Purdue to lose to Wisconsin at home on March 10.)
Purdue enters Tuesday on a modest three-game win streak after falling at Ohio State (73-69) on Feb. 18 but are just 1-2 against the spread in that span. They routed Rutgers 96-68 as 14.5-point chalk before an 84-76 win at Michigan as 13.5-point favorites and a narrow 80-74 home win over Michigan State as ten-point chalk.
A prohibitively short favorite in the Wooden Award odds, reigning-winner Zach Edey (24.0 PPG, 11.8 RPG) has played possessed since losing to the Buckeyes. He’s averaged 30.7 PPG and 11 RPG over the past three, including a season-high 35 points against the Wolverines.
Edey sits second in the nation in scoring (first among Power Six players) and third in rebounding (again, first among P6 players). But Purdue isn’t a one-man team this year. After finishing 12th in offensive efficiency last year, when Edey was posting similar numbers, they are up to second this season thanks largely to the excellent play of point guard Braden Smith (13.1 PPG, 7.1 APG, 44.1 3P%).
As a group, the Boilermakers are absolutely deadly from three, shooting 40.5% from deep, the third-best clip among all 362 DI teams.
Purdue earned a hard-fought 83-78 home win over Illinois on Jan. 5 despite a rare off night from Edey (10 points, 15 rebounds). With all of Illinois attention on Edey, sophomore forward Trey Kaufman-Renn had a season-high 23 points on 8-of-12 shooting.
Illinois Riding Three-Game Win Streak
The Illini have also won three in a row heading into the clash with Purdue. After losing by a point at Penn State – a game in which they blew a seven-point lead with less than a minute to play – Illinois has responded with championship mettle. The Illini beat Iowa 95-85 next time out and handled Minnesota 105-97 on Feb. 28.
Last time out on Saturday, Brad Underwood’s team took down Wisconsin (91-83) in Madison as 3.5-point road underdogs.
Senior guard Terrence Shannon Jr (22.0 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 2.2 APG) is the only other Power Six player in the top five in scoring, nationwide.
With Marcus Domask (16.0 PPG, 4. 9 RPG), Coleman Hawkins (13.3 PPG, 5.8 RPG), and Quincy Guerrier (10.2 PPG, 6.7 RPG) also in double-figures, the Illini rate third in offensive efficiency (just one spot behind Purdue). Their defense, however, is an ugly 103rd.
PUR vs ILL Player Props
| Player | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Three-Pointers Made |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braden Smith (PUR) | 13.5 (Ov -125 | Un -115) | 5.5 (Ov -145 | Un +105) | 5.5 (Ov -100 | Un -140) | 1.5 (Ov +125 | Un -165) |
| Coleman Hawkins (ILL) | 14.5 (Ov -110 | Un -130) | 5.5 (Ov +105 | Un -145) | 2.5 (Ov -125 | Un -115) | 1.5 (Ov -175 | Un +135) |
| Fletcher Loyer (PUR) | 9.5 (Ov -130 | Un -110) | 2.5 (Ov -105 | Un -135) | OFF | 1.5(Ov +105 | Un -145) |
| Lance Jones (PUR) | 13.5 (Ov -110 | Un -130) | 5.5 (Ov -105 | Un -135) | 2.5 (Ov +140 | Un -180) | 2.5 (Ov +145 | Un -190) |
| Marcus Domask (ILL) | 17.5 (Ov -125 | Un -115) | 4.5 (Ov -145 | Un +105) | 3.5 (Ov -140 | Un -100) | 1.5 (Ov -105 | Un -135) |
| Quincy Guerrier (ILL) | 8.5 (Ov -105 | Un -135) | 3.5 (Ov -155 | Un +115) | OFF | 1.5 (Ov +170| Un -230) |
| Terrence Shannon Jr (ILL) | 21.5 (Ov -130 | Un -110) | 4.5 (Ov -115 | Un -125) | 2.5 (Ov +145 | Un -190) | 2.5 (Ov +140 | Un -180) |
| Zach Edey (PUR) | 24.5 (Ov -130 | Un -110) | 12.5 (Ov -130 | Un -110) | OFF | OFF |
Player props as of March 5 at DraftKings. See the latest on the DraftKings North Carolina promo ahead of launch on March 11.
Despite his lethargic 10-point performance the first time these teams met this year, Edey is listed with a game-high point total of 24.5, a number he’s exceeded in his last three games overall. Shannon leads the Illini at 21.5, half a point under his season average. Shannon missed the first game against Purdue while suspended by the university.
Purdue vs Illinois Prediction
Illinois has won 13 straight home games with Shannon in the lineup, while all Purdue is just 3-3 this year in true road games against teams rated in KenPom’s top 60. I see Purdue as a much more credible threat in the March Madness odds this season, but I don’t see them taking down a team as deep and talented as Illinois on the road.
PUR vs ILL pick: Illinois -2.5 (-105)
Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NCAAM betting record:
- ATS: 16-16 (-1.48 units)
- Moneyline: 2-8 (-8.48 units)
- Over/Under: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
- Player props: 2-2 (+0.78 units)
All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.
The Purdue Boilermakers are set to take on the Illinois Fighting Illini on March 5 in what promises to be an exciting college basketball matchup. Both teams have had their fair share of ups and downs this season, making this game a crucial one for their respective postseason aspirations.
In terms of predictions, it’s difficult to say which team will come out on top. Purdue has been playing solid basketball as of late, with wins over ranked opponents like Michigan State and Ohio State. However, Illinois has also shown flashes of brilliance, most notably in their recent victory over Iowa.
One key player to watch in this game is Purdue’s Jaden Ivey. The freshman guard has been a standout performer for the Boilermakers this season, averaging 11.7 points per game and shooting 39% from three-point range. If Ivey can continue his hot streak, Purdue will have a good chance of coming out on top.
On the Illinois side, Ayo Dosunmu is the player to keep an eye on. The junior guard is averaging 21 points per game and has been a consistent scoring threat for the Fighting Illini all season. If Dosunmu can get going early and often, Illinois will be in good shape.
As for player props, betting on Ivey to score over 15 points or Dosunmu to record a double-double could be solid options. In terms of odds, Purdue is currently favored by 3.5 points, with the over/under set at 145.5 points.
Overall, this game has all the makings of a close and competitive matchup. Both teams have the talent and potential to come out on top, so it will ultimately come down to who can execute their game plan better on the day. Fans of college basketball are in for a treat with this exciting showdown between Purdue and Illinois on March 5.
