- Michigan State takes on Mississippi State in the first official game of the March Madness tournament
- Though MSU is the #9 seed in this matchup, they are the favorites at sportsbooks
- See my picks and predictions for #9 MSU vs #8 MSST below
March Madness is officially upon us! The first round tips-off with a 9 vs 8 matchup between Michigan State and Mississippi State at 12:15pm ET on Thursday, March 21. You can tune into this game on CBS. These two teams find themselves in the West Region of the March Madness bracket, and the winner will (very likely) earn a matchup with the #1 seed, North Carolina, on Saturday.
Let’s have a look at the odds for Michigan State vs Mississippi State and then I’ll get into how I’m betting this game:
Michigan St vs Mississippi St Odds
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| (9) Michigan State | -1.5 (-105) | O 130.5 (-110) | -120 |
| (8) Mississippi State | +1.5 (-115) | U 130.5 (-110) | +100 |
As you would expect in a matchup between the eight and nine seeds, we are seeing a pretty small spread. Michigan State is favored by 1.5 points and they’re listed at -120 odds to win the game. Based on the odds, the Spartans have a 54.6% chance of winning the game.
If you bet $20 on MSU to win at -120, you would stand to win $16.67 and return $36.67. That same $20 bet on Mississippi State at +100 odds would potentially profit $20 and return $40.
The total is set at 130.5, which is the third-lowest among all determined first-round matchups.
The odds above are from BetMGM.
If you already know who/what you’re betting in this matchup and just wanted to find the best price for your bet, here are the best lines for each bet at the time of writing this:
- Best Michigan St moneyline: -113 at FanDuel
- Best Mississippi St moneyline: +105 at Caesars
- Best MSU spread: -1 (-112) at DraftKings
- Best MSST spread: +1.5 (-110) at Caesars
- Best Over: 130 (-110) at Caesars
- Best Under: 130.5 (-107) at BetRivers
Be sure to check our college basketball odds to shop for the best current lines if you don’t read this right away.
Both MSU & MSST Enter the Tournament Riding Cold Streaks
No one is accusing either Michigan State or Mississippi State of being on any sort of hot streak. Both teams have lost five of their last seven games, but most of the Bulldogs recent losses at least came to quality opponents. Four of their losses came against top-25 ranked teams, one of which was on overtime loss to South Carolina and another was a two-point loss to Kentucky.
Michigan State, on the other hand, has three bad losses on their record from late in the season. Though two of them were decided by three points or less, they were to non-tournament teams (Iowa, Ohio State, and Indiana) and two of which came at home. For the record, their other two losses in their cold streak came to Purdue.
However, sportsbooks obviously aren’t too concerned about Tom Izzo’s team heading into the tournament, as they’re not only favored to get by Mississippi State, but they also have the sixth-best odds to make the Final Four among teams in the West Region.
Michigan State vs Mississippi State Team Stats
Instead of giving you a full breakdown of every team stat available, I have only included the ones I feel are most important to this matchup.
| 24th | NET Ranking | 31st |
| 3-9 | Quadrant 1 Record | 4-9 |
| 6-5 | Quadrant 2 Record | 4-3 |
| 18th (+20.03) | KenPom AdjEM | 30th (+17.98) |
| 57th (113.8) | KP Adj Off Efficiency | 60th (113.7) |
| 8th (93.7) | KP Adj Def Eff | 20th (95.7) |
| 305th (65.2) | KP Adj Tempo | 202nd (67.1) |
| 12th (+12.30) | KP SOS | 22nd (+11.15) |
| 77th (+4.49) | KP Non-Conf SOS | 173rd (+0.70) |
| 66th (35.9%) | 3P% | 247th (32.5%) |
| 254th (70.6%) | FT% | 324th (67.2%) |
I use the phrase “low & slow” for not only my grill/smoker, but also when it comes to March Madness. I’m a big fan of teams who can keep the score low with good defense and play at a slow pace, making every possession so valuable.
When looking at the stats for these two teams, they both check those boxes. However, one team just does it better than the other and has been tested more as well.
Michigan St vs Mississippi St Picks for Rd 1
If Mississippi State drew any of the other #9 seeds in this tournament, I am likely taking them to win in the first round – dependent upon the odds, of course. I actually like Miss State and the style of basketball they play, but this was maybe the worst matchup the Bulldogs could have drawn, in my opinion.
Michigan State plays better defense, shoots the ball better, and plays slower than Mississippi State. The only way the Bulldogs can overcome this, outside of MSU just having an awful day shooting, is to hit some threes and make their free throws. But they don’t do either of those things.
On top of that, this MSU team has that classic underachieving/underappreciated Izzo feel about it, which is typically the formula for a Sweet 16 run.
With these teams both playing so slow and defending so well, I’m also taking the under. The total has gone under in six of MSU’s last eight games as well as each of MSST’s last three.
Pick #1: Michigan State ML (-113) at FanDuel
Pick #2: Under 130.5 (-107) at BetRivers
The highly anticipated matchup between Michigan State and Mississippi State on March 21 is sure to be a thrilling game for college basketball fans. Both teams have had successful seasons so far, with Michigan State boasting a 22-9 record and Mississippi State sitting at 18-14.
In terms of predictions, this game is expected to be a close one. Michigan State has a slight edge in terms of overall talent and experience, but Mississippi State has shown that they are capable of pulling off upsets against top teams. The key for Michigan State will be to contain Mississippi State’s star player, Iverson Molinar, who is averaging 17.1 points per game this season.
In terms of odds, Michigan State is currently favored to win by 3.5 points according to most sportsbooks. This indicates that the experts believe Michigan State has a slight advantage in this matchup. However, anything can happen in college basketball, so fans should be prepared for a close and exciting game.
As for picks, it’s always difficult to predict the outcome of a single game with certainty. However, based on their overall performance this season, Michigan State seems like the safer bet to come out on top in this matchup. Their strong defense and balanced scoring attack should give them the edge over Mississippi State.
Overall, fans can expect a competitive and entertaining game between Michigan State and Mississippi State on March 21. Both teams have the talent and skill to come out on top, so it should be a game worth watching for any college basketball fan.
