Week 2 NFL Picks Against the Spread

Sep 8, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker T.J. Watt (90) shows emotion against the Atlanta Falcons in the third quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images

• Check out our best picks against the spread for NFL Week 2
• I am betting on three road teams in the NFL on Sunday, September 15
• See my NFL Week 2 against the spread picks and analysis for Colts vs Packers, Giants vs Commanders, and Steelers vs Broncos

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The NFL season continues this weekend as 14 games kick off on Sunday, September 15. NFL Week 1 had a little bit of everything. We had a game in Brazil, favorites covered in nine of the 16 games, touchdowns came at a premium, and the biggest underdog of the week, the Patriots, won outright. So what will we see in Week 2?

I went 1-2 in my NFL against the spread picks in Week 1. Keep reading to see who I am backing this Sunday.

Colts vs Packers Odds

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ATS Picks #1: Colts -2.5 (vs. Packers)

The NFL odds list the Colts as 2.5-point road favorites over the Packers. Not only are the Packers traveling back home from Brazil, Jordan Love also got hurt on the second to last play of the game and will not play this Sunday. Green Bay is turning to Malik Willis who was traded to the team on August 26, so he was still learning the playbook before he got put in the game last Friday night. As shown in the last play of the game vs the Eagles, Willis does not want to throw the ball.

Far too many times in his limited NFL action, Willis has looked to run too early in his dropback or has held onto the ball for too long resulting in a sack. Willis has three starts under his belt, and in his career, he has thrown for 350 yards, zero touchdowns, and three interceptions. He has also added 144 yards on the ground with one rushing touchdown.

IT’S MALIK WILLIS TIME
pic.twitter.com/Gz5Ev6JMYb

— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) September 7, 2024

But this is not just a fade Malik Willis pick because Matt Lafluer is a good offensive head coach who I believe will come up with a good game plan to get the ball to their talented playmakers like Jayden Reed.

Even though the Colts lost to the Texans in Week 1, they played well. Quarterback Anthony Richardson threw for two touchdowns and led the team in rushing with 56 yards. Richardson also scored a rushing touchdown. Jonathan Taylor averaged just three yards per carry, but now he faces a Green Bay defense that was gashed on the ground by Saquon Barkley.

The Colts have struggled historically in Week 1. They took a step in the right direction by covering the spread against the Texans, but they still have not won a Week 1 game since 2013. Week 2 has been a different story. Since 2017, Indianapolis is 6-1 against the spread in their second game of the season. I am confident the Colts have the roster to go into Green Bay and beat the Malik Willis-led Packers by a field goal or more.

• Pick: Colts -2.5 (-110)

Giants vs Commanders Odds

ATS Picks #2: Giants +1.5 (vs. Commanders)

Aside from the Panthers, no team looked worse in Week 1 than the Giants. In a near pick ’em game, the Giants lost 28-6 at home to the Vikings. They now travel to Washington to face their NFC East foe that they know very well in Week 2.

New York has dominated this series of late. In their last ten games vs the Commanders, the Giants are 7-2-1 and are on a three-game winning streak. They have also won six of their last seven games at FedEx Field in Washington. Daniel Jones is 5-1-1 against Washington in his career.

Last year, the Giants lost to the Cowboys in Week 1 40-0. They followed that up with a 31-28 victory over the Cardinals in Week 2. Jones threw for 321 yards and two touchdowns in that matchup. This year, they seem to be on a similar path.

They lost by 22 in Week 1 and Jones looked awful, but Washington’s secondary provides a great opportunity for a bounce-back. Because of the Commanders’ defense, I expect the Giants’ offense to look competent in this game. Daniel Jones is 21-14 (60%) against the spread in his career after a straight up loss. I expect that trend to continue on Sunday.

• Pick: Giants +1.5 (-110)

Steelers vs Broncos Odds

ATS Picks #3: Steelers -2.5 (vs. Broncos)

Mike Tomlin is 24-6 against rookie quarterbacks in his career. That mixed with how good TJ Watt and the rest of the Steelers defense looked last week, I have a hard time believing in the Broncos in Week 2.

Bo Nix threw the ball 42 times in his NFL debut vs the Seahawks. He only threw for 138 yards and averaged 3.3 yards per attempt. He also threw two interceptions and was sacked twice in Week 1. Throw in some question marks on Denver’s offensive line and Pittsburgh’s defense should be able to tee off on Nix and co.

The 2.5-point spread suggests that this will be a close game, and the Steelers are one of the best teams in one-score games. Pittsburgh has been above .500 in one-score games for eight straight years and went 9-2 in those types of games last season.

#Steelers HC Mike Tomlin says the team will start Justin Fields at QB this week vs the Broncos. pic.twitter.com/y9zWNARKx7

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) September 10, 2024

It looks like Justin Fields will make his second start for the Steelers. Fields played fine against Atlanta. He took care of the ball and was 17/23 passing. He also added 57 rushing yards on 14 attempts. The Seahawks ran the ball well against the Broncos’ defense.

Running back Kenneth Walker averaged over five yards per carry on his way to a 103-yard rushing day, and Denver allowed a long touchdown run to quarterback Geno Smith. Fields and the rest of Pittsburgh’s running game have a great chance of controlling this game and putting it away late.

I am trusting Tomlin and the defense to get the job done and win by at least a field goal.

• Pick: Steelers -2.5 (-110)

Reger’s 2024 NFL ATS Record: 1-2 (-1.09 units)

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