Week 18 NFL Picks Against the Spread

• Just one week remains in the NFL regular season
• In my NFL Week 18 best bets, I am looking at one favorite and two underdogs
• See below for SBD’s NFL picks against the spread for Week 18

We have made it to Week 18 of the NFL season, and just two spots remain in the NFL playoff bracket. This can be one of the trickiest weeks to bet on with teams eliminated and teams resting players for the playoffs.  Still, there is value to be found as the regular season winds down, and I am targeting two underdogs to cover the spread in my three best bets.

Keep reading for all my NFL Week 18 picks against the spread.

NFL Week 18 Picks Against the Spread

Odds as of Saturday, January 4 at ESPN BET. Be sure to claim the best ESPN BET promo code before locking in your NFL Week 18 bets.

ATS Pick #1: Commanders -6.5 vs Cowboys

What a season it has been for the Commanders. Washington clinched a playoff spot with a new head coach and a rookie quarterback. While they are locked into a playoff spot, they are still playing for their seeding. With a win last week and a Packers loss, the Commanders moved to the six-seed and will play the Rams if everything stays the same. If Washington beats the Cowboys, they will remain the six-seed. If Washington loses and the Packers win, they will move down to the seven-seed and play the Eagles in the playoffs.

Washington lost to the Cowboys as 10.5-point favorites at home earlier in the season, but since then, the Commanders have rattled off four straight wins and are 3-1 against the spread during that span. They still have plenty to play for in this game, and the fact that they lost to Dallas makes me feel better about Washington’s mindset heading into this one.

Dallas has had a down season and has somehow played even worse at home. The Cowboys are just 2-6 against the spread when playing at home. They were just embarrassed by a Kenny Pickett-led Eagles team. Washington should be able to run all over this team, and I trust Jayden Daniels and the Commanders to end their regular season on a high note.

• NFL Week 18 Pick: Commanders -6.5 (-110) 

ATS Pick #2: Chiefs +10.5 vs Broncos

Yet again the Chiefs are locked into the #1 seed in the AFC. Because of that, they will be sitting Patrick Mahomes and some other starters. The NFL odds have the Chiefs as 10.5-point underdogs to the Broncos due to this, but I think that is way too many points for a well-coached team playing a divisional opponent.

Bo Nix has been good in his first season, but it is difficult to trust Denver’s offense right now. Even with people sitting, the Chiefs have a talented defense, so I do not see the Broncos winning this game by 11 points or more. Their offense has been inconsistent and while they might connect on a big play or two, Kansas City knows this team well.

Odds to make the NFL Playoffs:

Broncos -550

DEN is in with a win over the Chiefs

Dolphins +700

MIA is in with a win and DEN loss

Bengals +1100

CIN is in with a win, a DEN loss, and a MIA loss

*odds via @DKSportsbook pic.twitter.com/oIXaoHgReq

— SportsBettingDime (@SBD) January 3, 2025

Denver has lost two games in a row, so they could be feeling the pressure to clinch the final playoff spot in the AFC. The Broncos control their own destiny and can get in with a win. Kansas City is starting Carson Wentz, so I do think that Denver will win, but I expect conservative play-calling in this one. All season, the Broncos have tried to control time of possession and have long sustained drives based on their run game and short passes. While Denver should win, this game will be a lot closer than the spread suggests.

• NFL Week 18 Pick: Chiefs +10.5 (-115)

ATS Pick #3: Raiders +4.5 vs Chargers

The Raiders are yet again playing well late in the season when they have nothing on the line. They have now won two in a row and continue to play hard even though their season is over.

Even though Las Vegas has been eliminated from playoff contention for weeks now, Antonio Pierce is still coaching to show the organization that he is the right guy for the job. Quarterback Aidan O’Connell is sneakily a great quarterback against the spread. In his career, he is 13-3 against the spread and has covered in two straight games.

The Chargers on the other hand do not have much to play for after clinching a playoff spot and defeating the Patriots 40-7 last week. The starters for the Chargers will be playing and they can technically move up to the five-seed, but that all depends on the Steelers. Los Angeles cannot be worse than the six-seed and they could be locked into that spot with a Pittsburgh win on Saturday. I will back the Raiders to continue fighting and keep this game close.

• NFL Week 18 Pick: Raiders +4.5 (-115) 

As we head into Week 18 of the NFL season, the playoff picture is starting to come into focus. With several teams still fighting for a spot in the postseason, every game becomes crucial. For bettors looking to make some money, picking games against the spread can be a challenging but rewarding endeavor.

One of the key factors to consider when making your picks is the injury report. Injuries can have a significant impact on a team’s performance, so it’s important to stay up to date on who is in and who is out. Additionally, weather conditions can also play a role in how a game plays out, so be sure to check the forecast before placing your bets.

Another important factor to consider is the recent performance of each team. Some teams may be on a hot streak, while others may be struggling to find their footing. It’s important to take into account each team’s form heading into the game.

When making your picks against the spread, it’s also important to consider the betting trends. Look at how each team has performed against the spread in recent games, as well as how they have fared in head-to-head matchups. This can give you valuable insight into how the game might play out.

Finally, don’t forget to do your research. Look at expert predictions, analyze statistics, and consider any other relevant information that could help you make an informed decision. Remember, there are no guarantees when it comes to sports betting, but by doing your homework and making smart picks, you can increase your chances of coming out ahead.

In conclusion, Week 18 of the NFL season presents bettors with plenty of opportunities to make some money by picking games against the spread. By considering factors such as injuries, weather conditions, recent performance, betting trends, and doing your research, you can give yourself the best chance of success. Good luck with your picks!