Week 10 NFL Picks Against the Spread

• NFL Week 10 is underway
• In this week’s NFL picks, I am targeting two underdogs and one favorite
• Keep reading for our NFL Week 10 expert picks against the spread

We are officially in the second half of the 2024 NFL season. It’s Week 10, and we will see if underdogs can bounce back this week after favorites dominated in Week 9. Last week, favorites went 14-1 SU and 10-5 ATS. Despite that, there are still two underdogs that I like against the spread on Sunday.

See below for all my NFL Week 10 picks.

NFL Week 10 Picks Against the Spread

Odds as of November 8 at bet365. Be sure to claim the best bet365 bonus code before locking in your NFL Week 10 bets.

Week 10 ATS Pick #1: Colts +4 vs Bills

Yes, the Colts looked terrible in primetime against the Vikings last week. Indianapolis’s offense did not get in the endzone and could not move the ball, but for all we know, it was just past Joe Flacco’s bedtime. Outside of last Sunday night, Flacco has been good this season, and I expect him to get back to form against a Bills defense that has been vulnerable against the run and pass.

This is also a great situational spot for Indianapolis. The Bills are coming off a close, hard-fought divisional game against the Dolphins and next week they face the undefeated Chiefs. Kansas City knocked the Bills out of the playoffs last year and are looking for revenge. Over the last few years, the Chiefs and Bills have formed one of the most entertaining rivalries in the league. They want to get in and out of Indianapolis to focus on that game.

Indianapolis is 7-2 against the spread this season and every game they have played has been decided by eight points or less. The Colts have some fight to them, and at 4-5, the Colts need this win to stay in the thick of the AFC playoff picture. They will be the more motivated team, and they are at home. I like getting over a field goal with the Colts on Sunday.

• Pick: Colts +4 (-110)

Week 10 ATS Pick #2: Broncos +7.5 vs Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs are the only undefeated team in the league. They will likely get another win on Sunday as the NFL odds list the Chiefs as big favorites over the Broncos, and Patrick Mahomes has done extremely well vs the Broncos in his career. He is 12-1 straight up vs Denver, however, I do not expect this game to be a blowout. Mahomes is 7-6 against the spread against Denver, and the Chiefs have failed to cover their last two games as favorites of over a touchdown.

Denver was just blown out by the Ravens, but with Bo Nix and Sean Payton, this Broncos team has looked much better than in years past. The Broncos defense is a top unit in the NFL, and the Chiefs have been an under team this season.

Bo Nix CATCHES a touchdown from Courtland Sutton. WHAT A PLAY. 🔥 #BroncosCountry

(via NFL, CBS) pic.twitter.com/MsxYlAbz9O

— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) November 3, 2024

This is also a difficult spot for the Chiefs. They are on a short week and played in overtime on Monday Night vs the Buccaneers. While they are not as likely to look over a divisional opponent, the Chiefs do have the Bills on deck in Week 11. Overall, this should be a low-scoring game, and I trust the Broncos offense to score enough points to keep this game under a touchdown. I will take the Broncos to cover the spread against their AFC West rival.

• Pick: Broncos +7.5 (-110)

Week 10 ATS Pick #3: Bears -6 vs Patriots

This is a game I will unfortunately be watching now. Chicago got embarrassed last week on the road in Arizona, and the Patriots lost in overtime to the Titans.

In this battle of rookie quarterbacks, I expect the Bears to pull away as the Patriots have had back-to-back hard-fought and emotional games. They came back to beat the Jets two weeks ago, then lost an overtime game last week that was forced on a miracle touchdown as regulation ended. The Bears on the other hand have dropped two in a row. After the hail mary loss to the Commanders, they looked out of sorts last week. Now, they are back home where they play much better.

Chicago beats up on bad teams. Thier wins have come against the Titans (2-6), the injury-riddled Rams, the Panthers (2-7), and the Jaguars (2-7). All of those games were at home and were won by at least six points. This is the perfect get-right spot for the Bears.

The Bears defense is still a strong unit, and like the rest of their team, is much better at home. I do not see how Drake Maye, Rhamondre Stevenson, and the rest of the Patriots will be able to move the ball in Chicago. New England’s defense is great either as they just allowed 167 rushing yards to the Titans. The Bears will be able to run the ball against the Patriots, set up their play-action for Caleb Williams, and win this game comfortably in front of their home fans.

• Pick: Bears -6 (-110)

As we head into Week 10 of the NFL season, there are several intriguing matchups on the schedule that have caught the attention of football fans and bettors alike. With teams jockeying for playoff positioning and divisional supremacy, every game becomes crucial at this point in the season.

One of the most anticipated games of the week is the showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Las Vegas Raiders. The Chiefs are coming off a dominant win over the Green Bay Packers, while the Raiders are looking to bounce back from a tough loss to the New York Giants. The Chiefs are currently favored by -2.5 points in this matchup, and many experts believe they will come out on top once again.

Another game to keep an eye on is the battle between the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets. The Bills have been one of the top teams in the league this season, led by their dynamic quarterback Josh Allen. The Jets, on the other hand, have struggled to find consistency and are currently sitting near the bottom of the standings. The Bills are favored by -12.5 points in this game, and it’s likely that they will cover the spread against their struggling divisional rival.

In the NFC, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will take on the Washington Football Team in what should be a competitive matchup. The Buccaneers are led by future Hall of Famer Tom Brady and have one of the most explosive offenses in the league. Washington, meanwhile, has shown flashes of potential but has struggled to put it all together consistently. The Buccaneers are favored by -9.5 points in this game, and they should be able to cover the spread against a Washington team that has had trouble keeping up with high-powered offenses.

Overall, Week 10 of the NFL season promises to deliver plenty of excitement and drama as teams continue to battle for playoff positioning. Whether you’re a casual fan or a seasoned bettor, there are plenty of intriguing matchups to keep an eye on, and plenty of opportunities to make some money by picking games against the spread. So sit back, relax, and enjoy another action-packed week of NFL football.