WCC Tournament: Analyzing Odds, Picks & Predictions for Pepperdine vs Saint Mary’s

• The upstart Pepperdine Waves hope to take down the top-seeded Saint Mary’s Gaels in the WCC Tournament semifinals
• The Gaels beat the Waves by 24 and 30 points in their two regular-season meetings
• Below, see the Pepperdine vs Saint Mary’s odds plus my best picks and predictions for Monday’s WCC semis

A near-perfect WCC season continues for the #1 Saint Mary’s Gaels (27-4, 17-1 WCC, 14-16 ATS) on Monday when they face the #9 Pepperdine Waves (13-21, 4-14 WCC, 15-17-1 ATS) in the semifinal of the conference tournament at Orleans Arena in Paradise, NV, at 6:00 pm PT/9:00 pm ET. Saint Mary’s absolutely dominated Pepperdine in their two regular-season meetings and is a massive favorite to advance to Tuesday’s final, where they would face either #2 Gonzaga or #3 San Francisco.

Pepperdine vs Saint Mary’s Odds

Saint Mary’s is laying 19.5 points against the spread and is a hyper-short -5000 on the moneyline in Monday’s college basketball odds, which amounts to a 98.04% implied win probability. The Waves are listed as +1350 neutral-court underdogs (6.90% implied win probability). The total is sitting at 134.5, which is a few points lower than the KenPom score projection (78-60) but 10.5 points higher than either of their regular-season totals (112 and 124).

Odds as of 11:15 am ET, March 10, at BetMGM. Claim the latest BetMGM promo code to land a bonus to use on the WCC Tournament.

Pepperdine, which finished an ugly ninth in the 11-team WCC in the regular season with a dismal 4-14 record, has won three straight games as the betting underdog to reach Monday’s semifinal. On Friday, the Waves crushed Portland (86-73) as one-point underdogs; on Saturday, they got past Oregon State (77-73) as 10.5-point underdogs; and on Sunday, they upset Santa Clara (78-76) as 15.5-point ‘dogs.

The Waves had lost five in a row and eight of nine entering the conference tournament. During the regular season, they were obliterated by the Gaels 71-41 in Moraga, and 74-50 at home.

Pepperdine’s three-game win streak has primarily been powered by two men: 6’8 senior forward Stefan Todorovic (18.5 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 2.2 APG), who’s averaging 24.0 PPG in the WCC Tournament, and 6’1 junior guard Moe Odum (12.9 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 7.7 APG), who’s averaging 22.3 PPG.

As the #1 seed, the Gaels received a bye to the semifinals and will be playing their first game since March 1st. They have won seven in a row since their lone conference loss at San Francisco (65-64) on Feb. 6th. Prior to conference play, Saint Mary’s went 2-1 in neutral-court games, beating Nebraska (77-74) and embarrassing USC (71-36) before losing to Arizona State (68-64).

The Gaels ranked 21st in the latest AP Poll and sit 22nd at KenPom, primarily thanks to their stifling defense, which rates 11th out of all 364 DI teams in efficiency. They play at the sixth-slowest tempo in the nation and have a balanced attack; senior guard Augustas Marciulionis leads the team in scoring, averaging just 14.4 PPG. Sophomore forward Paulius Murauskas (12.8 PPG, 8.1 RPG) and senior center Mitchell Saxen (10.4 PPG, 8.0 RPG) are also in double-figures, and are the primary reason the Gaels rank second in the country in offensive rebound percentage (40.2%) and 15th on defense (74.9%).

Saint Mary’s sits 30th in the latest March Madness championship odds at +10000. Their best result since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams is the Sweet 16 (2010).

Pepperdine vs Saint Mary’s Prediction

The Waves have been a fun story in the WCC Tournament, but they’re a top-heavy team that will be playing its fourth game in as many nights. And they’ll be playing an opponent that they matchup terribly against.

The Gaels are an absolute monster on the glass; they out-rebounded the Waves 50-32 and 41-29 in their pair of lopsided regular-season meetings. Todorovic accounted for just 26 points in the two games, combined, shooting an ugly 11-of-30 from the field.

I do think the Waves can keep this competitive for a half, but I don’t see them exceeding the 56.5-point team total they currently have at DraftKings.

My Saint Mary’s vs Pepperdine Picks

• Pepperdine first half +11.5 (-105)
• Pepperdine team total under 56.5 (-105)

Sascha Paruk’s 2024-25 NCAAM betting record: 34-22 (+8.52 units). All wagers 1 unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

The West Coast Conference (WCC) Tournament is heating up as Pepperdine takes on Saint Mary’s in what promises to be an exciting matchup. Both teams have had strong seasons and are looking to make a statement in the tournament.

When it comes to the odds, Saint Mary’s comes in as the favorite in this game. The Gaels have a solid record and have proven themselves to be a tough team to beat. Pepperdine, on the other hand, has had some ups and downs this season but has shown flashes of brilliance.

In terms of picks and predictions, it’s a tough call. Saint Mary’s has the edge in experience and talent, but Pepperdine has shown that they can compete with some of the best teams in the conference. It could come down to which team can execute their game plan better on the day of the game.

One key factor to watch in this matchup is the battle in the paint. Saint Mary’s has a strong frontcourt led by big man Matthias Tass, while Pepperdine relies on their guards to create scoring opportunities. Whichever team can establish dominance inside could have a significant advantage.

Overall, this game is shaping up to be a close one with both teams hungry for a win. It will come down to execution and which team can make the big plays when it matters most. Fans can expect a high-energy, competitive game between these two talented teams. Stay tuned for what promises to be an exciting matchup in the WCC Tournament.