Top Same-Game Parlay Picks for Patriots vs Jets in Thursday Night Football Week 3

• The New England Patriots and New York Jets get Week 3 started tonight on Thursday Night Football
• Today’s Patriots vs Jets same-game parlay is risky but will pay off big if it hits
• Below, see all four-legs of a +1774 Patriots vs Jets SGP on TNF

---

Thursday Night Football gets another classic AFC East rivalry when the New England Patriots and New York Jets face off tonight at MetLife Stadium. Kickoff is set for 8:15 pm ET.

In their 2023 season finale, the Jets finally ended a fifteen-game losing streak to the Patriots and won’t be keen on letting New England start up a new one. Can Aaron Rodgers & the Jets make it two in a row against New England, or will Jerod Mayo pick up his second win as coach of the Patriots?

Considering how New England loves to eat up the clock and the Jets can’t stop sputtering with the ball, we’re seeing a number of props with low offensive expectations in the Patriots vs Jets odds. That’s why tonight’s four-leg SGP is aiming to take advantage of odds that may have dipped a little too low in our favor.

Patriots vs Jets Same-Game Parlay Picks

After hitting a +783 Bills vs Dolphins SGP last week (under 48.5 points + Tua Tagovailoa under 265.5 passing yards + James Cook anytime TD), I am admittedly going wild with a four-leg play that’s banking on one unproven passing offense to outperform a disappointing pass defense. The total odds for this NFL same-game parlay works out to a massive +1774, where a $100 wager would net a $1,774 profit, but only if all four legs hit.

Odds as of September 18th at DraftKings. Make sure you’re located in one of the DraftKings legal states before betting on Patriots vs Jets.

Patriots vs Jets SGP Pick #1: Over 38.5 Total Points

Tonight’s first SGP pick was a toss-up between taking the over at -112 and picking the Patriots to cover +6 at -110, which was Sascha Paruk’s top pick in his Patriots vs Jets predictions. I wouldn’t blame anyone for taking the Pats at +6.5 if you can find it at -110!

Instead, I’m leaning towards the over 38.5 total points at -112. That point total is too small of a benchmark to pass up.

Head-to-head, the under has hit in six of the last ten games between the Patriots and Jets dating back to 2019. That includes the three recent paltry totals of 20, 25, and 13 points. If you’ve got your Farmer’s Almanac open, you’ll see that the under is 2-1 since 2015 when Patriots vs Jets happens in September.

However, I feel we can lean more towards recency bias tonight, since the over is 2-1-1 in games involving the Patriots and Jets in 2024.

The under hit in Week 1’s Patriots/Bengals game, where the 3D% was a pedestrian 38.4% and the Bengals kept giving the ball back to a team that held onto it for 34:03 of game clock. The push was last Sunday’s Jets/Titans game, where two offenses trying to forge identities nearly broke 41 points.

Now may be the moment the Jets offense overperforms, with Aaron Rodgers finally in his third game in Gotham green. Meanwhile, the Patriots’ run-heavy offense will be salivating to take a crack at a subpar run defense.

This game won’t be pretty, but both teams will put up more points than you think.

Patriots vs Jets Same-Game Parlay Picks #2 & 3: Rodgers Over 225.5 Alt Pass Yards & Hall Over 4.5 Receptions

It’s a weird feeling to take the over against a Patriots defense. Since this is no longer the Patriots of the 2010s, I’m willing to take a chance.

Yes, they stymied Joe Burrow on the road in Week 1, but could not contain Geno Smith at home in Week 2. It’s a weird pass defense juxtaposition to compare, but I think the win over the Bengals is the outlier.

In contrast, the Pats run defense is solid, meaning the Jets will take to the air, which is great news for Aaron Rodgers.

Against the Patriots & Belichick-esque passing defenses, Rodgers has thrown for 368, 259, and 251 yards. Time to see if he can truly plant that Achilles and throw at a young secondary. In those three games against the Pats, Rodgers routinely targeted eight receivers or more.

Also worth noting is that Rodgers plays well against the zone, while still decent against man coverage. This is why the Belichick-esque defense matters and why we’re pairing it with the “Breece Hall Receptions” parlay.

Breece Hall’s 23.7% Target Share is the highest by a running back two weeks intro the season over the last 4 years

pic.twitter.com/LiqkdK2BFf

— Matty Kiwoom (@MattyKiwoom) September 16, 2024

Last weekend, the Patriots zone coverage was torched by Geno Smith. They mixed their coverage to a 50/50 split between zone and man in the 2nd half and held Seattle to six points.

But that didn’t stop the Seattle passing game, with Smith throwing for 169 pass yards in the first half and 158 in the second. The Patriots stopped the deluge of points, sure, but not yards in the air.

So why does this matter? My theory is that Rodgers demonstrably knows how to adjust against the Pats passing defensive. Yes, Belichick is gone, but “The Patriot Way” vibes for Mayo & Co. aren’t forgotten that easily.

If the Pats start in zone and move to man, Rodgers will instead target guys like Hall and Allen Lazard on short routes. Hall already has games with 5 and 7 receptions; he should get at least 5 more if Rodgers makes the adjustments we’re banking on.

Patriots vs Jets SGP Pick #4: Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime TD

The Patriots are strong on the ground on both sides of the ball, but they’ll eat up the clock on offense by feeding the ball to Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson a lot.

With a passing game that hasn’t exactly been electric, Stevenson and Gibson already have a combined 64 rushing attempts in just two weeks, the second-most of any backfield duo in the league.

So who get’s the Pats’ rushing touchdown? We’re going with Stevenson, the feature back who has two TDs in two games and is getting over 70% of the team’s carries. (A Stevenson TD also features in the best Patriots vs Jets player props.)

Last Week’s Results – All three legs hit (Under 48.5 Total Points, Tua Tagovailoa Under 265.5 Pass Yards, James Cook Anytime TD) at +783.

Thursday Night Football in Week 3 features a matchup between the New England Patriots and the New York Jets. Both teams are looking to bounce back from tough losses in Week 2 and will be looking to secure their first win of the season. One way to add some excitement to this game is by placing a same-game parlay bet, where you can combine multiple bets into one wager for a potentially bigger payout. Here are some top same-game parlay picks for the Patriots vs Jets matchup:

1. Patriots to win: The Patriots are coming off a tough loss to the Miami Dolphins in Week 1, but they showed some promise on offense. With rookie quarterback Mac Jones showing poise in the pocket and a solid defense led by veteran cornerback Stephon Gilmore, the Patriots should be able to come out on top against the struggling Jets.

2. Total points under 45.5: Both teams have struggled to put up points in their first two games of the season, and this matchup could be a low-scoring affair. With two young quarterbacks still finding their footing in the NFL, don’t expect a high-scoring shootout in this game.

3. Damien Harris over 60.5 rushing yards: The Patriots have a strong rushing attack led by running back Damien Harris, who has shown the ability to break off big runs. Against a Jets defense that has struggled to stop the run, Harris should have a big game on the ground.

4. Corey Davis to score a touchdown: The Jets’ offense has shown some signs of life with rookie quarterback Zach Wilson connecting with wide receiver Corey Davis for big plays. Look for Davis to find the end zone in this game against a Patriots defense that has had some lapses in coverage.

By combining these picks into a same-game parlay bet, you can increase your potential payout while adding some extra excitement to Thursday Night Football. Just remember to gamble responsibly and do your research before placing any bets. Good luck!