- The Denver Broncos head south tonight to take on the New Orleans Saints on Thursday Night Football
- An Alt Total Points Under of 39.5 leads off tonight’s TNF same-game parlay
- Below, see all three legs of a +1400 Broncos vs Saints SGP for Thursday Night Football
The NFL heads south for Thursday Night Football, as the Denver Broncos face the Saints at the Superdome in New Orleans. Kickoff for tonight is scheduled for 8:15 pm ET. The Broncos and Saints are coming off tough losses in Week 6 against division rivals, in games where both teams were held scoreless across three quarters. There’s sure to be more scoring tonight, but hopefully not too much more, as tonight’s same-game parlay starts with an under bet.
Broncos vs Saints Same-Game Parlay Picks
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Alt Total Points: Under 39.5 Points | -152 |
| Bo Nix 200+ Passing Yards | +120 |
| Javonte Williams Anytime TD Scorer | +140 |
| TOTAL DEN vs NO SGP ODDS | +1400 |
After shopping tonight’s SGP at a few different sportsbooks, I found the best payout for tonight’s three-leg Broncos vs Saints same-game parlay to be at bet365, working out to a massive +1400.
Odds as of October 16th at bet365 Sportsbook. Use the latest bet365 promo code before betting on Broncos vs Saints.
I bounced back in last week’s 49ers vs Seahawks SGP, when all three of our legs hit. Staying conservative with the first-half under 24.5 worked out well when both San Francisco and Seattle were slow in getting started, only to explode for a combined 41 points in the second half. Brock Purdy hitting the over with his last pass was icing on the cake.
That’s why I’m riding the lightning with another Total Point Under and Passing Yard Over in my Week 7 Thursday Night Football SGP. All told, today’s NFL same-game parlay adds up to a huge +1400, where a $100 bet would net a profit of $1,400, but only if all three legs hit.
Facing a New Orleans team missing QB1 Derek Carr, Denver heads into TNF as a 2.5-point road favorite in the Broncos vs Saints odds.
Ian’s 2024 NFL SGP Record: 2-3, +13.33 units
Broncos vs Saints Same-Game Parlay Pick #1: Alt Total Points: Under 39.5
I won’t deny that this one feels a little odd, especially how the Saints have been a part of four games this season where the total hit 50 or more. That’s two-thirds of the games they’ve played so far, but I wouldn’t be making this move if there wasn’t a caveat.
Those four games featured some of the worst defenses in the league: the Panthers (29th), Cowboys (25th), Falcons (19th), and the Saints themselves (32nd) in last week’s 51-27 loss to Tampa Bay. And for what it’s worth, the Saints rank fourth in scoring, but 14th in total offense. Seems to me that’s a discrepancy worth scrutiny.
In New Orleans’ games against quality defenses, namely Philadelphia (10th) and Kansas City (4th), the totals ended on 27 and 39, respectively.
Comparatively, the Broncos’ ninth-overall defense has allowed passing and rushing totals similar to the Eagles. These comparisons are never apples to apples, but this one is pretty close.
So if the Saints defense is so bad, why am I still taking the under? Because the Broncos’ offense isn’t much better, rating 26th in passing and 18th in rushing. It’s the Saints’ pass defense (30th) that’s particularly vulnerable, but facing a less-than-effective passing offense should slow down the scoring quite a lot.
Broncos vs Saints Same-Game Parlay Pick #2: Bo Nix 200+ Passing Yards
I know, I just called the Broncos’ passing game “less-than-effective,” but that doesn’t mean Nix cannot hit 200+ yards, either.
Denver’s rookie QB has stayed under 200 yards in only two games this year: his first-ever NFL game in the first week of the season at Seattle (138 yards) and a sloppy, 10-9 “weather” game against the Jets (60 yards). Otherwise, he’s gone over 200 with yards to spare in his four other games.
Bo Nix is not a guy you give up on 6 games into his career.
He’s got the tools. Just has to be more consistent with them.
Some actual weapons wouldn’t hurt either pic.twitter.com/g0I9D7dPkE
— Fien (@zachefiene) October 14, 2024
Most notable of those performances is Nix’s most recent, the 216 yards he put up last week against the Chargers fourth-ranked pass defense. It’s a low total for a young QB against a quality pass defense, but he still broke 200 yards.
If we take general probability into consideration, NFL quarterbacks who have thrown 20 pass attempts or more in a game this season have also thrown for 200+ yards on 106 occasions, compared to the 65 QBs who stayed under 200. And of those 65 QBs, only one of them was facing the Saints.
I’m not saying Nix throwing for 200 yards is a given, but the likelihood that he does so is better than what sportsbooks are suggesting.
Broncos vs Saints Same-Game Parlay Pick #3: Javonte Williams Anytime TD Scorer
I’m leaning towards Javonte Williams for an anytime TD, mostly as a litmus test to see if the Saints did their homework after last week’s implosion.
No, Williams doesn’t score a lot; in fact, he alternates seasons between scoring in bunches or not at all. But when Williams scores, he does so in the red zone, as all twelve of his career TDs have come from within 20 yards.
And that’s where things get tricky, because the Saints currently rank third in defensive red zone scoring percentage. At 38.1%, only the Bears (37.5%) and Broncos (33.3%) are better at preventing red zone touchdowns. So is there value in taking Javonte Williams for a TD on Thursday? I believe there is.
That gaudy defensive RZ% covers their whole season, but when only looking at the last four games, the Saints’ percentage drops to 43.8%, all losses.
Strangely, that parallels Denver’s improvement in the red zone: their offensive RZ% is 50% for the entire the season, but is a massive 72.7% over their last four games.
New Orleans is getting worse in the red zone, while Denver is getting better. Who does that benefit? A guy who only scores in the red zone. That means Javonte Williams.
The Denver Broncos will face off against the New Orleans Saints in Thursday Night Football for Week 7 of the NFL season. As fans gear up for this exciting matchup, many are looking to place bets on the game. One popular betting option that has gained popularity in recent years is the same-game parlay.
A same-game parlay allows bettors to combine multiple bets within the same game into one single wager. This can lead to higher payouts, but also comes with increased risk. For those looking to try their luck with a same-game parlay for the Broncos vs Saints game, here are some top picks to consider:
1. Drew Brees Over 250 Passing Yards: The Saints quarterback has been on fire this season, averaging over 270 passing yards per game. With a strong receiving corps at his disposal, Brees should have no trouble hitting the over on this prop bet.
2. Alvin Kamara Anytime Touchdown Scorer: Kamara has been a touchdown machine for the Saints this season, finding the end zone in nearly every game. With his versatility as a runner and receiver, Kamara is a solid pick to score a touchdown in this matchup.
3. Melvin Gordon Over 50 Rushing Yards: The Broncos running back has been a consistent performer for the team this season, averaging over 60 rushing yards per game. Against a tough Saints defense, Gordon may not have a breakout performance, but he should be able to hit the over on this prop bet.
4. Total Points Over 45: Both the Broncos and Saints have potent offenses that can put up points in a hurry. With two high-powered quarterbacks leading their respective teams, this game has the potential to be a high-scoring affair. Taking the over on the total points scored could pay off for bettors.
5. Broncos to Win by 7-12 Points: If you’re feeling bold, consider betting on the Broncos to win by a margin of 7-12 points. With an explosive offense led by quarterback Drew Lock and a solid defense, the Broncos have the potential to pull off a convincing win against the Saints.
As with any form of sports betting, it’s important to do your research and make informed decisions when placing same-game parlays. While these picks can provide a starting point for your wagers, be sure to consider factors such as injuries, weather conditions, and recent performance trends before finalizing your bets. Good luck and happy betting!