Top Player Prop Bets for Bills vs Chiefs AFC Championship Game – Including Longshot Options

• We’ve made it to Sunday so it’s time to start getting bets down for the AFC Championship Game
• My favorite way to get loose betting the NFL is with longshot player prop bets
• See my favorite Bills vs Chiefs longshot player props for the AFC Championship

We’re saying goodbye to the NFL really soon so the smartest thing we can do right now is get in on some longshot bets. There is nothing more exciting than cashing a +520 bet on something everyone you know told you wouldn’t happen. Nothing shuts the haters up more than longshot wins. Why? Because haters just aren’t great at math. They think we have to win +520 bets at the same rate as -110 bets. It’s sad but true. I wish I could go back and make all the haters pay attention in math class but I simply can’t. It’s a pipe dream and I’m a dreamer. But for the rest of us, we’ve got the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs which means multiple longshot bet opportunities. I’ve listed my two favorite moves in the article below. Felt like the move.

Bills vs Chiefs Player Props to Bet

I already included Josh Allen over 1.5 TDs in my Conference Championships Props to Target and today’s Bills/Chiefs player props are taking it a step further, targeting over 2.5 passing TDs at +520 odds. Odds as of Jan. 26 at FanDuel. Check out SBD’s FanDuel review for the latest promo codes to use on Bills vs Chiefs.

Josh Allen Could Get Loose Today

It’s no secret that I’m a Josh Allen guy. The man has a cannon and he is the actual definition of a “competitor”. Look that word up right now. You’ll see a picture of Josh Allen throwing a touchdown pass.

I’m not the only Josh Allen guy today though. From the looks of it, Planet Earth is behind him as well.

On behalf of planet earth, I am rooting for Josh Allen to beat Patrick Mahomes. Who’s with me?

— Jason Moore (@jasonffl) January 20, 2025

Here’s the thing, I don’t have anything against the Kansas City Chiefs. I actually like Patrick Mahomes. The guy can play and it’s fun to watch. I just want to see another team in the Super Bowl and if we’re being honest, the Buffalo Bills will be a fun team to see in the Super Bowl.

The beauty of this bet is we don’t even need the Bills to win this game. All we need is for Josh Allen to show up in a big moment. He does that all the time. Sure, he only threw three touchdowns in a game three times this season. I wish that number was higher but it wasn’t because he ran for 12 more TDs. What if he doesn’t run for any today?

On the season, the Chiefs only allowed 13 rushing touchdowns (one was to Allen) so it’s not like teams can line up and just push them around. They also gave up 24 passing touchdowns so it’s not like they can’t be had through the air. In a game where everything is on the line, there is no reason Josh Allen to throw three touchdowns should be +520. I’ll take that all day. Feels right.

• Josh Allen 3+ Touchdown Passes (+520) – FanDuel

Dawson Knox Still Plays for the Bills

Sometimes people forget about people. It happens all the time. In fact, I had a friend that I hung out with every day in 2002. We’re talking every single day. I didn’t even remember him until he friend requested me on Facebook last year. Literally forgot all about him.

The same type of thing happened early this NFL season with Dawson Knox. Lucky for us, in the second half of the season, he reminded us he still plays for the Bills.

Dawson Knox started off the season fairly quiet

Weeks 1 thru 7 (played 5 games)

27th in yards (148)
25th in receptions (15)
19th in yards/game (29.6)

Since week 8 (9 games)

7th in yards (356)
7th in receptions (31)
12th in yard/game (39.6) pic.twitter.com/RATIPklPNB

— SportsRoc (@SportsRoc2) December 27, 2022

Now I can already tell you that the haters are going to hate this. They hate everything which is why we call them haters in the first place. Pay them no mind. They’ll all be shouting Dalton Kincaid at the top of their lungs while we’re just sitting back saying Dawson Knox.

For once, the haters aren’t wrong. Kind of. I do think Dalton Kincaid will have a decent day. He’s a tight end and the Kansas City Chiefs just don’t cover tight ends. In fact, no team in the NFL gave up more receiving yards to the tight end position this season than Kansas City. It was noticeable.

Here’s where it gets good. Our guy Dawson Knox is also a tight end. Has been his whole life. He also went for 40+ the last time these two teams met. Kincaid didn’t play that game but Kincaid was around when Knox went 40+ against the Detroit Lions. My point is, 40+ isn’t that crazy for a guy like Knox in this situation given the type of routes he runs. It damn sure shouldn’t be +520. Feels easy.

• Dawson Knox 40+ Receiving Yards (+520) – FanDuel

Check out SBD’s other Bills vs Chiefs content, including:

As the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs gear up for their highly anticipated AFC Championship Game, fans and bettors alike are eagerly looking for ways to get in on the action. One popular way to do so is through player prop bets, which allow bettors to wager on specific outcomes involving individual players.

For the Bills vs Chiefs matchup, there are several enticing player prop bets to consider, including some longshot options that could pay off big if they hit. Let’s take a look at some of the top player prop bets for this game:

1. Josh Allen Over/Under Passing Yards: One of the most popular player prop bets for this game will undoubtedly be on Bills quarterback Josh Allen’s passing yards. Allen has been on fire this season, throwing for over 4,500 yards in the regular season. The over/under for Allen’s passing yards in this game is likely to be set around 300 yards, but with the Chiefs’ suspect pass defense, the over could be a solid bet.

2. Tyreek Hill Anytime Touchdown Scorer: Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill is one of the most explosive playmakers in the NFL, and he is always a threat to find the end zone. Betting on Hill to score a touchdown at any point in the game is a popular prop bet, and with his speed and playmaking ability, it’s always a possibility.

3. Stefon Diggs Over/Under Receiving Yards: On the other side of the ball, Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs has been a revelation this season, leading the league in receiving yards. The over/under for Diggs’ receiving yards in this game will likely be set high, but given his talent and chemistry with Allen, he could easily surpass that mark.

4. Longshot Option: Clyde Edwards-Helaire First Touchdown Scorer: While he may not be the first player that comes to mind when thinking about potential first touchdown scorers, Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire could be a sneaky longshot option. Edwards-Helaire has shown flashes of brilliance this season and could find pay dirt early in the game.

5. Longshot Option: Dawson Knox Anytime Touchdown Scorer: Bills tight end Dawson Knox has emerged as a red zone threat for Buffalo this season, scoring touchdowns in multiple games. Betting on Knox to score a touchdown at any point in the game could be a lucrative longshot option.

Overall, player prop bets add an extra layer of excitement to an already thrilling AFC Championship Game between the Bills and Chiefs. Whether you’re betting on Allen’s passing yards, Hill finding the end zone, or taking a chance on a longshot option, there are plenty of opportunities to cash in on this highly anticipated matchup. Good luck and happy betting!