Top Five MLB Award Favorites at All-Star Break, with Skenes as Strong Contender for NL ROY

Jul 11, 2024; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes (30) pitches in the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

• Paul Skenes has taken as massive lead in the NL Rookie of the Year odds at the All-Star break
• Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani are both odds-on favorites to win MVP in their respective leagues
• See MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year odds in the AL and NL coming out of the All-Star break

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Nearly 60% of the way through the 2024 MLB season, the odds to win MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year in the American League and National League have all taken shape.

As always, some races are tight while others have runaway favorites.

Jump to:AL MVP | NL MVP | AL Cy Young | NL Cy Young | AL ROY | NL ROY

AL MVP Odds & Favorites

All odds as of July 17 at DraftKings. See the list of DraftKings states to see if you’re eligible to claim a sign-up bonus. 

The AL MVP odds list Aaron Judge as -310 to win his second career MVP award. The 2022 AL MVP has mashed an MLB-best 34 home runs (five more than any other player) while also leading the majors in RBI (85) and OPS (1.112).

One thing that could work against Judge down the stretch is narrative. The Yankees, who were 28 games over .500 on June 12th (49-21), are just 9-19 in their last 28 games and have fallen behind the Orioles in the AL East.

Judge’s main competition, Gunnar Henderson, has been the catalyst of the Orioles’ offense. He is third in the majors (and second in the AL) with 28 home runs while sitting tenth in RBi (63) and seventh in OPS (.956). Henderson is the only player even remotely challenging Judge in terms of WAR. The Yankee slugger has an MLB-leading 6.4 WAR while Henderson is at 6.3. No other player in the majors is over 5.4.

NL MVP Odds & Favorites

In his first season on the Senior Circuit, Shohei Ohtani has emerged as the favorite in the NL MVP odds. His teammate Mookie Betts was the frontrunner before suffering a broken hand that’s going to cost him upwards of 40 games. Ohtani is first in the  NL and second in the majors in homers (29) while still hitting for an extremely high average (.316, fourth-best in the MLB). Usually in the lead-off spot for the mighty Dodgers, his opportunities for RBI aren’t as copious as most of his NL MVP competitors, but he still sits third in the NL with 69 RBI.

Bryce Harper is a distant second-favorite at the moment amid another great year for the two-time MVP. With 21 homers, 61 RBI, and a .983 OPS

AL Cy Young Odds & Favorites

Still just 27 years old, Tarik Skubal has become the anchor of the Tigers rotation in his fourth full season. After posting a career-best 2.80 in an injury-shortened 2023 campaign, he’s one-upping himself this year with an AL-leading 2.41 ERA and miniscule 0.88 WHIP (second to Logan Gilbert’s 0.87). He’s been a model of consistency, going at least 6.0 innings in 15 of his 19 starts. While wins have become an outdated pitching stat, he’s also T3 in the AL with 10.

He struck out a season and career-best 13 against the Reds on July 7, propelling him further ahead of the competition in the AL Cy Young odds.

The only player within striking distance of Skubal is first-year Oriole Corbin Burnes, who finished top-eight in NL Cy Young voting each of the last four years including his first (and so far only) win in 2021. Among qualified pitchers, Burnes is a close second to Skubal in ERA (2.43) and ninth in the in WHIP (1.04). His strikeout percentage is way down, though, sitting at just 23.3%, which continues a concerning trend. From 2020 to 2022, he was up over 30%. Last season, he dipped to 25.5% and now he’s down another 2% this year.

NL Cy Young Odds & Favorites

Is this finally the year for perennial Cy Young contender Chris Sale to win the award? Most assumed the 35-year-old had missed his window when injuries limited him to just 48.1 innings combined in 2021 and 2022, but he managed 102.2 last season as he worked his way back, and his nasty stuff has fully returned this year, his first with the Braves. Sale leads the majors in wins with 13 while sitting seventh in ERA (2.70), fifth in WHIP (0.95), and fourth in K/9 (11.5).

Pushing Sale is 2021 runner-up Zack Wheeler, who’s putting in another gem of a season for the Phillies. Wheeler’s ERA (2.70) is identical and his WHIP (0.99) is just a stone’s throw behind. The only real difference between the two is that Wheeler doesn’t have the same strikeout numbers, which is the main reason why Wheeler’s xFIP (3.46) pales in comparison to Sale’s (2.52).

The x-factor in the NL Cy Young odds is rookie Paul Skenes. If he qualified for the leaderboards, the #1 overall pick from the 2023 draft would put most of his competitors to shame. In his first 11 big-league starts, he’s 6-0 with a 1.90 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and a 32.4% strikeout percentage. He seems to be getting better, too. His most-recent start was a preposterous seven-inning gem in which he no-hit the Brewers while striking out 11 and issuing just one walk.

AL Rookie of the Year Odds & Favorites

The AL Rookie of the Year odds have underdone some heavy fluctuations over the past 3.5 months. Luis Gil looked destined to win the award early on as he started the season 9-1 with a 2.07 ERA, putting himself in the Cy Young conversation as well.

But Gil, like the Yankees, has really struggled of late. From June 20 to July 7, he had a run of four straight losses and his ERA ballooned to 3.27.

That’s allowed preseason favorite Wyatt Langford to sneak back to the top of the list, even though he isn’t having a spectacular season. Langford is slashing .250/..318/.384 in his first 72 MLB games with five home runs, 12 doubles, and 40 RBI.

Based on current stats, there’s little separating Langford from Baltimore’s Colton Cowser and Boston’s Ceddanne Rafaela. His status as favorite in the AL Rookie of the Year odds is based more on pedigree at the moment.

NL Rookie of the Year Odds & Favorites

I already touched on how insanely good Skenes has been in his first 11 starts. There’s no debate here. Barring injury, the Pirates ace is going to run away with this award.

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