Top 3 Cinderella Picks for the 2025 NCAA Tournament March Madness

• The Round of 64 at the NCAA Tournament tips off on Thursday
• VCU leads the nation in opponent effective field goal percentage
• See my three best Cinderella picks for the March Madness, below

Almost every year, programs come out of nowhere to go on a fairy tale run at the NCAA Tournament. Identifying which longshots have that kind of ceiling is tricky, but there are a handful of factors we can consider to help identify potential sleepers. I’ve compiled a list of my favorite Cinderella picks for this year’s March Madness tournament below. Keep reading for my analysis and their odds in the futures market.

March Madness Cinderella Picks & Odds

UC San Diego is my pick with the longest odds to reach the Sweet Sixteen at +360. They’re +1800 to make the Elite Eight, and +4900 to crack the Final Four. I’m betting them to reach the tournament’s second week as a 12-seed, in a South Region that is primed for chaos.

Odds as of March 18 at DraftKings. See all the available March Madness betting promos before the start of the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

Cinderella Pick #1: UC San Diego to Reach Sweet Sixteen (+360)

The Tritons draw Big Ten champs Michigan on Thursday in Round 2. UC San Diego made the NCAA Tournament in their first year of eligibility, becoming only the third program to do so. They enter play riding a 15-game winning streak, the longest in the nation, and have plenty of the characteristics of an attractive sleeper.

They’re loaded with experience. The Tritons start five upperclassmen, four of which average 10+ points per night. They take care of the ball and force turnovers, ranking top-10 in both offensive and defensive turnover percentage. UC San Diego is also a strong shooting team, making 37% of their threes this season.

As for their first matchup with the Wolverines, it profiles well for two reasons. Michigan is extremely turnover prone, and is likely exhausted. The Wolverines had to scratch and claw their way through four games en route to a conference title. They finished up on Sunday evening, and now have to play in Denver, at altitude, four days later. The Tritons meanwhile, needed just two games to claim the Big West crown.

Assuming they get past Michigan, the Yale-Texas A&M winner awaits in the Round of 32. Yale grades out 37 spots lower than UC San Diego per Kenpom’s rankings. A&M meanwhile, can’t shoot and struggles to defend the three-point line. The Aggies rank 317th in effective field goal percentage, and are 310th in opponent three-point makes. I love the Tritons to get at least two wins and crack the Sweet Sixteen.

• Cinderella Pick #1: UC San Diego to Reach Sweet Sixteen (+360)

Cinderella Pick #2: VCU to Reach Sweet Sixteen (+350)

My next favorite double-digit seed is VCU in the East region. The 11-seed Rams won 12 of their last 13, on their way to an Atlantic 10 championship. Their first round matchup with BYU profiles as one of the best Thursday games. The Cougars want to play fast and fill the hoop, while the Rams rely on their tenacious defense.

VCU will try to capitalize on BYU’s turnover prone guards, while defending the perimeter at all costs. The Rams lead the nation in opponent effective field goal percentage, and rank top-41 in both adjusted offense and defensive efficiency. They grade out 31st in Net Rating and 30th in overall efficiency per KenPom, just five spots lower than the Cougars.

I’m counting on them to upset the Cougars, and then take down 3-seed Wisconsin in the Round of 32. The Badgers don’t play an intimidating brand of defense, ranking outside the top-330 in opponent turnover percentage and block rate. They don’t crash the glass, and they struggle to get to the charity stripe.

The run likely ends in the Sweet Sixteen with Alabama looming, but they’re one of my favorite bets to make it that far given their juicy +350 odds.

• Cinderella Pick #2: VCU to Reach Sweet Sixteen (+350)

Cinderella Pick #3: Gonzaga to Reach Elite Eight (+470)

Gonzaga typically enters the March Madness bracket as a top-seed. This year, however, they’re an 8-seed. A slow start by their standards threw everyone off the scent, but they closed the season on an absolute heater. The Zags have won nine of their last 10 games. That includes a perfect run at the WCC Tournament, where they knocked off #19 Saint Mary’s in the final.

Experts have been beating the drum that this team is better than their record for quite some time. The advanced analytics show that, as they sit 9th in KenPom’s Net Rating, despite not being ranked in the AP top-25. I agree, and am making them my pick to reach the Elite Eight

The Bulldogs boast the country’s second-best offense, averaging 87 points per night. A potential Round of 32 matchup with top-seed Houston is the biggest hurdle to clear before the Elite Eight in the Midwest, and the Cougars are certainly not immune to early exits at this tournament.

Houston is a 1-seed for the third straight season. They’ve yet to make it past the Sweet Sixteen during that stretch. Defense is their calling card, but if they can’t lock down the Zags elite offense they’ll be in trouble. The Cougars rank 132nd in scoring, and outside the top-89 in shooting efficiency and three point makes. They could also be without leading rebounder J’Wan Roberts, per the key March Madness injuries to know.

If Gonzaga can advance to the Sweet Sixteen for a 10th straight time at the NCAA Tournament, a favorable matchup will be waiting. The highest-seeded potential opponents would be #4 Purdue or #5 Clemson, two teams that rank at least 10 spots lower per KenPom’s metrics.

• Cinderella Pick #3: Gonzaga to Reach Elite Eight (+470)

As the 2025 NCAA Tournament March Madness approaches, college basketball fans are eagerly anticipating which teams will emerge as the Cinderella stories of the tournament. Every year, there are a few underdog teams that capture the hearts of fans with their unexpected success and thrilling upsets. Here are the top three Cinderella picks to watch out for in the 2025 NCAA Tournament:

1. University of Nevada, Las Vegas (UNLV): UNLV has been a consistent mid-major program over the years, but in 2025 they have a talented roster that could make some noise in the tournament. Led by a dynamic backcourt duo and a strong frontcourt presence, UNLV has the potential to upset higher-seeded teams and make a deep run in the tournament.

2. Saint Louis University: Saint Louis may not be a household name in college basketball, but they have quietly put together a strong season and are poised to surprise many in the tournament. With a balanced scoring attack and a stifling defense, Saint Louis has the tools to compete with any team in the field and could be a dangerous matchup for higher-seeded opponents.

3. University of Vermont: Vermont may come from a smaller conference, but they have proven themselves as a tough and resilient team that is capable of pulling off upsets in the tournament. With a disciplined offense and a tenacious defense, Vermont has the ability to frustrate opponents and control the pace of the game, making them a team to watch out for in March Madness.

While these teams may not be among the favorites to win the national championship, they have the potential to surprise and make a memorable run in the tournament. Keep an eye on UNLV, Saint Louis, and Vermont as they look to become this year’s Cinderella stories in the 2025 NCAA Tournament March Madness.