The Best Early-Week Bet to Make for the Cotton Bowl: Predicting Texas vs Ohio State

• The final CFP semifinal (Cotton Bowl) matchup features the fifth-seeded Texas Longhorns against the 8th-seeded Ohio State Buckeyes on January 10th at AT&T Stadium at 7:30 pm ET on ESPN.
• The Buckeyes are a 6-point favorite to advance to the championship.
• We have an opening preview of Texas vs Ohio State, including a prediction or two, and more.

Cold weather is likely for the College Football Playoff semifinal matchup between Texas (13-2, 8-7 ATS) and Ohio State (12-2, 8-6 ATS). Texas is 4-3 ATS against Top 25 teams, while Ohio State is 4-1.

Ohio State has had three straight bowl games which featured some unexpected outcomes. The games against Utah and Georgia were instant classics. Last year’s Cotton Bowl loss to Missouri were anything but. This Cotton Bowl features some higher stakes.

Texas has endured quite the up and down ride. The Longhorns survived a fierce fight from Arizona State to win last week 39-31 in double overtime. Ohio State dominated Oregon early and never looked back in their matchup.

We examine some early odds and make a prediction or two for this contest.

Texas vs Ohio State Odds

Odds as of Jan. 6 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check the top DraftKings Sportsbook promos before making a bet on any college football playoff action. 

This is a reasonable early line for the playoff semifinal tilt. Ohio State has rode their offense to early success while Texas suffered from a little bit of the yips trying to close out Arizona State. The statement Buckeyes first half is why Penn State is a 6-point favorite entering the game.

Against the spread, both teams have won eight times this season.

The total is 53.5 at DraftKings and around the same number at BetMGM and FanDuel. Caesars is staying at 53, for now.

Here are those injuries and opt-outs. Ohio State and Texas have been minimally impacted on these fronts.

Texas: The Flag Bearer For The SEC

The Texas Longhorns are the last team standing from the SEC. Most expected Georgia or maybe Alabama but that did not happen. Quinn Ewers was able to deliver in overtime to send the Longhorns to the Cotton Bowl. Now, their reward is a meeting with Ohio State.

The games against Clemson and Arizona State showed some concerns with the Longhorns. Texas could not run the ball against the Arizona State but Ewers managed four total touchdowns despite several mistakes. Defensively, the Longhorns allowed Arizona State and Cam Skattebo back in the game. The Sun Devils ran for 214 yards and racked up 500+ yards of offense.

Texas coach Steve Sarkisian called Ohio State the “best team in college football.” 😳 Longhorns gonna have their work cut out for ’em.

— Stadium Pulse (@StadiumPulse0) January 3, 2025

Now, the question for Texas is can they avoid mistakes against an Ohio State team that capitalizes on them. The defense is going up against some shifty rushing options for the Buckeyes and Will Smith. It could be too formidable of a foe.

Ohio State’s Day Is Almost Here

For Ryan Day and Will Howard, the day is almost here. The Ohio State Buckeyes had two major hiccups and nearly a third during the regular season. However, the playoffs have been a domination from the Buckeyes. Ohio State outclassed Tennessee in the first round and then blitzed Oregon. The Buckeyes led 34-0 and then coasted to a 41-21 win.

Ohio State knows there is one more game until the National Championship. Texas will be far from easy but TreVeyon Henderson, Quinshon Judkins, and Howard have racked up 27 touchdowns. Both running backs are game breakers in their own way behind a large Ohio State offensive line.

Many are calling the Ohio State vs Texas Cotton Bowl the defacto Title Game, and it is easy to see why:

🔥The two best teams per ESPN’s FPI.

🔥Two elite defenses & top 5 talent rosters.

Texas’s edge: LOS
Ohio State’s: EVERYTHING else

My analysis:https://t.co/fWpE4viy4M

— College Football with Sam (@CFBwSam) January 5, 2025

The key for Ohio State on offense is to also not forget Jeremiah Smith and his 1200+ yards and 14 receiving touchdowns. Texas will be desperate to show that last week’s fourth quarter was a fluke. Now, the Buckeyes’ offensive line can be challenged by the Texas defensive front. This game comes down to Ryan Day and Will Howard.

Texas vs Ohio State Early Prediction

• Ohio State -6 at DraftKings
• Over 53.5 at DraftKings

Ohio State is capable of throttling Texas much like Georgia did earlier in the season. However, the chess match between Day and Steve Sarkisian will be intriguing..

Texas and Ohio State should be able to score just enough points while the Buckeyes make the six-point spread the best bet to make on Friday night.

As college football fans eagerly await the highly anticipated Cotton Bowl matchup between the Texas Longhorns and the Ohio State Buckeyes, many are already placing their bets on who will come out victorious in this exciting showdown. While both teams have had successful seasons, there is one early-week bet that stands out as a potential winner.

When looking at the matchup between Texas and Ohio State, one key factor to consider is the performance of each team’s defense. The Longhorns have shown a strong defensive presence throughout the season, ranking 32nd in the nation in total defense. Led by standout players such as linebacker Joseph Ossai and defensive back Caden Sterns, Texas has been able to shut down some of the best offenses in the country.

On the other hand, Ohio State’s defense has struggled at times this season, particularly in their matchups against top-ranked opponents. The Buckeyes rank 51st in total defense, giving up an average of 384.2 yards per game. While Ohio State does have talented players on defense such as cornerback Shaun Wade and defensive end Tyreke Smith, they have shown vulnerabilities that Texas could potentially exploit.

In addition to their strong defense, Texas also has a potent offense led by quarterback Sam Ehlinger. The senior signal-caller has thrown for over 2,500 yards and 25 touchdowns this season, while also adding over 380 rushing yards and eight touchdowns on the ground. Ehlinger’s ability to make plays with both his arm and his legs could pose a significant challenge for Ohio State’s defense.

While Ohio State has a high-powered offense led by quarterback Justin Fields and running back Trey Sermon, they may struggle against Texas’ stout defense. The Longhorns have shown an ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks and force turnovers, which could disrupt the Buckeyes’ offensive rhythm.

Taking all of these factors into consideration, the best early-week bet to make for the Cotton Bowl may be to wager on Texas covering the spread. With their strong defense and dynamic offense, the Longhorns have the potential to come out on top in this highly anticipated matchup. Of course, anything can happen in college football, but Texas appears to have the edge heading into this showdown with Ohio State.