Sunday’s Fourth Round: Arnold Palmer Tournament Odds, Picks, and Best Bets

• Collin Morikawa is a +105 favorite to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational entering Sunday’s final round
• Morikawa carded a 5-under par round of 67 on Saturday to take a one-stroke lead over Russell Henley
• See the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational live odds, and best picks before the Final Round

It’s shaping up to be a nail-biting finish at the PGA Tour’s fourth Signature Event of 2025. Collin Morikawa takes a one-shot lead over Russell Henley into the fourth round at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, seeking his first victory since the 2023 Zozo Championship. Six golfers enter play on Sunday within five shots of the lead, and I’m still not ready to count out the top-two players in the world. World #1 Scottie Scheffler will begin eight shots back, while #2 Rory McIlroy is seven shots behind Morikawa.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Live Odds

Morikawa is a +105 favorite to win the API, followed by Henley at +275. Corey Conners checks in next with +550 odds, while former champ Jason Day has a +900 price tag.

Odds as of March 8 at DraftKings. Claim a DraftKings promo code to bet on the Arnold Palmer Invitational. 

Nasty Weather Looming Brings Longshots Into Play

No disrespect to Morikawa, but he’s not cracking my list of best bets. Saturday’s conditions brought sunshine and light winds to Bay Hill Club and Lounge, but Sunday will be a different story.

Ideal scoring conditions in Round 3 paved the way for Morikawa to shine, and he obliged. The 28-year-old carded six birdies and a bogey en route to a 5-under par round of 67, leading the field in strokes gained approach along the way.

The two-time Major champ is one of the best ball strikers in the world, and is tops in that category this week, along with strokes gained tee-to-green. He’s put together multiple top-two finishes in his last five starts, but he hasn’t tasted victory since late 2023.

With so many quality names within striking distance, it’s hard to back Morikawa at even money. He’s not a ruthless closer like Scheffler or McIlroy, and the nasty weather on deck is only going to add more variance to the leaderboard.

Sunday’s forecast is calling for cold temperatures, with winds escalating in the afternoon. That can place a larger emphasis on scrambling and putting, which are not Morikawa’s forte. Morikawa loses strokes to the field on average when putting on Bermuda services like the ones at Bay Hill, and has lost strokes around the greens in back-to-back tournaments entering this week.

Not only am I skipping Morikawa on my betting card, I’m fading the entire top-six. You can poke holes in each of those golfers as well, and I see plenty of value further down the board.

Arnold Palmer Picks & Best Bets for Final Round

1. Rory McIlroy +5000: Let’s start with McIlroy. He’s been a little off this week with his irons, but he’s been a net positive in every other major statistical category. McIlroy has a history of storming the field on Sunday at the API, shooting an 8-under, 64 in 2018 to steal the title. He gained 10 strokes putting that week on the field, the most of his entire career. If the flat stick gets hot on Sunday look out.
2. Shane Lowry +6500: Shane Lowry fell back to the pack on Saturday thanks to a pair of sloppy double bogeys, but he’s never someone you want to bet when the weather’s perfect. The Irishman is a superb wind player, who thrives in tough conditions. He’s a previous Open Champion and finished third here last year. For the week, he ranks sixth in iron play and ninth in putting, which should serve him well in the Final Round.
3. Scottie Scheffler +7500: I pulled the trigger on Scottie at +12000 prior to him playing the 18th on Saturday, but he’s still a value at this number. Scheffler has stormed the pack many times in his career, and despite his mediocre standing so far this week, the stats point to big things coming. The two-time Major champ is tops in strokes gained off the tee, fifth in strokes gained tee-to-green, and seventh in scrambling. He’s won this event twice in the last three years, and no one will be surprised if he makes a big move on Sunday.

The Arnold Palmer Invitational is one of the most prestigious events on the PGA Tour, and Sunday’s fourth round promises to be an exciting day of golf. With some of the top players in the world competing for the title, fans can expect plenty of drama and excitement as the tournament comes to a close.

As we head into the final round, let’s take a look at the odds, picks, and best bets for Sunday’s action at Bay Hill.

Odds:

Heading into the final round, the odds are constantly shifting as players jockey for position on the leaderboard. Some of the top contenders include Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau, Viktor Hovland, and Jordan Spieth. Each of these players has shown flashes of brilliance throughout the tournament and will be looking to make a final push on Sunday.

Picks:

When it comes to making picks for Sunday’s final round, it’s important to consider a variety of factors. Course history, recent form, and current leaderboard position can all play a role in determining who is likely to come out on top.

One player to keep an eye on is Rory McIlroy. The Northern Irishman has a strong track record at Bay Hill, having won the tournament in 2018 and finished in the top 10 in each of his last five appearances. With his powerful driving and precise iron play, McIlroy has the game to make a run at the title on Sunday.

Another player to watch is Bryson DeChambeau. The reigning U.S. Open champion has been in solid form this season and has the length off the tee to take advantage of Bay Hill’s wide fairways. If he can dial in his approach shots and putt well on Sunday, DeChambeau could be a serious contender for the title.

Best Bets:

When it comes to placing bets on Sunday’s final round, there are a few options that stand out as potentially lucrative opportunities. One strategy is to look for players who are within striking distance of the lead but are being overlooked by oddsmakers.

For example, Viktor Hovland is currently a few shots off the pace heading into Sunday’s final round. The young Norwegian has been playing well this season and has the game to make a move up the leaderboard. With favorable odds, Hovland could be a smart bet to make a run at the title.

In conclusion, Sunday’s fourth round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational promises to be an exciting day of golf with plenty of drama and excitement. With top players vying for the title and shifting odds throughout the day, fans can expect a thrilling conclusion to this prestigious tournament. Whether you’re looking to make picks or place bets, be sure to consider all the factors at play and enjoy the action on Sunday at Bay Hill.