Jul 29, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes (30) reacts after a play during the third inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
- We’ve made our Pirates vs Diamondbacks prediction for Sunday’s MLB matchup
- The Pirates are slight favorites with a moneyline of -155 as Paul Skenes takes the mound
- Read below for Pirates vs Diamondbacks prediction, odds, and Skenes props for August 4, 2024
The Pittsburgh Pirates and Arizona Diamondbacks wrap up their three-game series Sunday afternoon at the beautiful PNC Park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 PM ET in this rubber match between two NL playoff hopefuls.
The Pirates are slight favorites in the Sunday MLB odds with a moneyline of -155, while the Diamondbacks are +130 underdogs. The run line is set at Pirates -1.5 (+140) and Diamondbacks +1.5 (-162), with the over/under at 8 runs.
Let’s get into our D-Backs vs Pirates production for Sunday as we analyze the betting odds and best Paul Skenes props to bet.
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Prediction Sunday
The Pirates took game two on Saturday by a score of 4-2 to even up the series. Pittsburgh has now won four of their last six games overall as they try to chase down a Wild Card spot.
Meanwhile, the D-Backs saw their four-game winning streak come to an end. Arizona still sits in the 2nd Wild Card position, though, at 59-52, 2.5 games ahead of Pittsburgh.
Rookie phenom Paul Skenes (6-1, 1.90 ERA) takes the mound for the Bucs as he looks to bolster his NL Cy Young case. The young flamethrower has been absolutely sensational, punching out 103 batters in his first 80 big-league innings. Skenes has allowed two earned runs or less in eight straight starts.
He’ll be challenged by an Arizona lineup that’s piping hot right now, scoring 7.9 runs per game over their last 10 with a robust .309 team average. Something’s gotta give Sunday.
Arizona counters with Ryne Nelson (8-6, 4.53 ERA). The second-year hurler has been up and down but is coming off his best outing of the year, blanking the Nationals over seven innings with nine Ks. Still, Nelson has been knocked around on the road this season to the tune of a 3.83 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.
| 6-1 | Record | 8-6 |
| 1.90 | ERA | 4.53 |
| 0.910 | WHIP | 1.359 |
| 6.44 | K/BB | 2.47 |
| .198 | Opp Avg | .281 |
Despite Arizona’s offensive surge, I’m backing Skenes to keep dealing and quiet the D-Backs’ bats. With Nelson’s tendency to allow hard contact and the Pirates’ bullpen finding its rhythm, I like the Pirates to score just enough to secure the win.
But with two talented young arms on the mound, I’m expecting a relatively low-scoring game. Give me the under 7.5 as my best bet with a slight lean towards the Pirates on the ML. But I’ll be tossing ARI +1.5 into a SGP as my predicted final score is 3-2.
ARI-PIT Sunday Picks:
- Under 7.5
- Diamondbacks +1.5
Arizona vs Pittsburgh Odds – August 4th
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diamondbacks | +130 | +1.5 (-162) | Over 8 (-110) |
| Pirates | -155 | -1.5 (+140) | Under 8 (-120) |
The Pirates are -155 moneyline favorites, implying a 60.8% probability of winning the game. Conversely, the Diamondbacks are +130 underdogs, indicating a 43.5% chance of pulling off the upset. The run line of Pirates -1.5 (+140) suggests that oddsmakers believe there’s a decent chance Pittsburgh wins by more than one run.
A B-Rey BLAST💥 pic.twitter.com/nQfMrF9dLc
— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) August 4, 2024
The over/under is set at 8 runs, with the under slightly favored at -120 (implied probability of 54.5%). This relatively low total can be attributed to the expected pitcher’s duel between Skenes and Nelson, as well as the Pirates’ strong bullpen performance in recent games.
It’s worth noting that the Pirates have won six of their last seven day games after playing the previous day, while the Diamondbacks have lost four of their last five day games against National League opponents with winning records.
Odds as of August 3rd, 2024. Check out the top MLB betting sites for Pirates vs D-Backs baseball.
Paul Skenes Props to Bet
Given Paul Skenes’ impressive rookie campaign, there are several intriguing prop bets I’m considering for Sunday’s game. Make sure to shop around to find the best odds for these bets.
Skenes Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-120):
Skenes has hit this number in 10 of his 13 starts. He’s averaging 11.5 K/9, good for 6th in MLB among qualified starters. The D-Backs also have the 5th-most Ks in baseball. Love the over here.
Skenes Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-150):
The young ace has allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his last eight starts, so this prop is another safe play. You have to lay the juice in the MLB player props, but a same-game parlay is a great way to get some action on this play at reduced juice.
Skenes to Record a Win (+120):
With the Pirates favored and Skenes on the mound, betting on him to secure the victory offers decent value.
PIT vs ARI Injury Report
The only notable injury from Saturday’s game was Pirates veteran outfielder Andrew McCutchen, who exited with a left quad issue after singling in the sixth inning.
McCutchen’s status for Sunday’s contest is uncertain, but if he’s unable to play, it would be a blow to Pittsburgh’s lineup.
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
On Sunday, August 4th, the Arizona Diamondbacks will face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates in what is sure to be an exciting matchup. Both teams have had their fair share of ups and downs this season, making it difficult to predict the outcome of this game. However, with a little analysis and some insight into the players to watch, we can make some educated guesses about how things might play out.
In terms of odds, the Diamondbacks are currently favored to win this game. They have been playing solid baseball as of late and have a strong lineup that can put runs on the board quickly. The Pirates, on the other hand, have struggled at times this season and will need to bring their A-game if they want to come out on top.
One player to keep an eye on in this matchup is Diamondbacks pitcher Paul Skenes. Skenes has been a reliable arm for Arizona this season, posting a solid ERA and striking out batters at a high rate. If he can keep the Pirates’ hitters off balance and give his team a chance to score some runs, the Diamondbacks should have a good chance of coming away with a win.
In terms of props, there are a few that stand out for this game. One interesting bet could be on the total number of runs scored. Both teams have shown the ability to put up runs in bunches, so taking the over on the run total could be a smart play. Another prop to consider is the first team to score. If the Diamondbacks can get on the board early, they may be able to set the tone for the rest of the game and come away with a victory.
Overall, this game has the potential to be a close and competitive matchup. With solid pitching from Paul Skenes and strong hitting from both teams, fans can expect an exciting game that could go down to the wire. Be sure to tune in on Sunday, August 4th to see how it all unfolds.
