SEC Championship: Expert Prediction, Odds, and Player Props for Georgia vs Texas

• No. 5 Georgia takes on No. 2 Texas in a rematch for the SEC Championship on Saturday
• The Bulldogs beat the Longhorns 30-15 as 4-point road underdogs in their first meeting this season
• Read below for our Georgia vs Texas prediction, updated odds and player props for the SEC title game

The SEC Championship Game is giving us a rematch we’ve all been waiting for, as No. 5 Georgia (10-2) clashes with No. 2 Texas (11-1) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

Both teams have changed since Georgia’s 30-15 win in Austin back in October – the Bulldogs have shown some cracks, while Texas has reeled off five straight wins. With a playoff bye on the line, the implications couldn’t be greater.

Here is our UGA vs Texas prediction for Saturday’s SEC Championship Game.

Georgia vs Texas Prediction

Look, that first meeting told us a lot. Georgia physically dominated Texas in the trenches on their way to that 30-15 road upset. The Bulldogs’ defense made life miserable for the Longhorns, who mustered just 259 total yards and an abysmal 29 on the ground.

The reality is, while Texas has been rolling lately, there are still legitimate questions about their offensive line holding up against elite defensive fronts like Georgia’s. I’ve been really impressed with how the Bulldogs’ defensive line has rounded into championship form lately, averaging three sacks over their last three games.

On the offensive side, Carson Beck seems to have figured things out after those midseason turnover issues. The junior has been dealing lately, tossing 11 touchdowns without a single pick in his last three games. He’ll look again to target Domini Lovett, who caught five passes for 47 yards and two TDs last week vs GA Tech.

Carson Beck is ready to make his mark in the SEC Championship Game!

Beck told @DjShockley3 earlier this week: “I want my own (SEC Championship).” pic.twitter.com/bjJzBp7alF

— Sudu (@sudu_tv) December 7, 2024

The ground game looks potent too, with freshman sensation Nate Frazier (587 rush yds, 8 TD) stepping up due to Trevor Etienne being injured. The latest Etinee injury update is that the star RB is questionable to play with a rib injury. That would be massive for UGA if he can go, as Etienne found paydirt three times in the first meeting.

Let’s be honest – playing this game in Atlanta is huge for Georgia. The crowd will be heavily pro-Bulldogs, and this team knows Mercedes-Benz Stadium like the back of their hand after playing here the last three seasons.

While Texas definitely has the talent to pull this off, I’m rolling with the battle-tested Bulldogs as 3-point underdogs. Kirby Smart’s defensive scheme and Georgia’s ability to control both lines of scrimmage should be the difference. Expect another rough day for Ewers against that relentless pass rush.

• Prediction: Georgia +3

Before rushing to bet Texas as field-goal favorites ATS, consider that the favorite is 25-6 straight-up in the SEC Championship Game, but just 14-16-1 against the spread.

Updated Georgia vs Texas Odds

There’s been some interesting line movement since this one opened. Texas started as 1.5-point favorites at -115, but sharp money pushed it up to -3 before some Georgia buyback brought it down to Texas -2.5. It’s gone back up to -3 at the time of publishing.

Here are the latest odds for the SEC Championship Game:

The total has increased slightly from their first meeting’s 45 combined points. It’s worth noting both teams have been trending under lately, with Texas going under in 6 of their last 8. That contradicts a trend of the “over” going 16-5 in the last 21 SEC Championship Games.

Check out our full college football odds page for the latest title game lines and totals.

Odds updated 1pm ET on December 7, at ESPN Sportsbook.

Georgia vs Texas Player Props

The UGA vs Texas player props show Texas running back Quintrevion Wisner with the best odds to score a TD at -175, which is 63.6% implied probability.

My Best UGA-Tex Prop Bet

One player prop I absolutely love here is Nate Frazier to score a touchdown at -145 odds on BetMGM. The freshman has been an absolute revelation, finding paydirt in five straight games while getting at least 11 carries in each contest.

Nate Frazier will be a dog coming into his sophomore season 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/SWeI7pCH2G

— Coach T (@TheRealRashaud) November 14, 2024

Sure, Texas has been stout against the run overall, giving up just 3 yards per carry. But here’s what catches my eye – they’ve shown some vulnerability in the red zone, with eight of their nine rushing touchdowns allowed coming inside the 20.

The way Georgia’s offense has been clicking lately, Frazier should get his chances near the goal line. Even if the sledding gets tough inside, he’s shown he can break one from distance. At -145, there’s solid value backing a back who’s been money in the end zone lately.

• Our Pick: Nate Frazier anytime TD (-145 at
  BetMGM
  
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Final UGA vs Texas Prediction

I’m riding with Georgia +3 to take down Texas and claim the SEC crown. The Bulldogs’ championship DNA, combined with their defensive prowess and that Atlanta crowd advantage, should be enough to neutralize the Longhorns’ explosive offense.

Watch for Georgia’s front seven to make Ewers uncomfortable all game while their ground attack controls the clock. Back the Dawgs getting points and sprinkle on Frazier to score for a winning championship weekend ticket.

The SEC Championship game between the Georgia Bulldogs and the Texas Longhorns is set to be a thrilling matchup between two powerhouse teams. Both teams have had successful seasons, with Georgia boasting an impressive 11-1 record and Texas sitting at 9-3.

In terms of expert predictions, many analysts are favoring Georgia to come out on top in this game. The Bulldogs have one of the top defenses in the country, allowing just 17.2 points per game. Their offense is also potent, led by quarterback Jake Fromm and running back D’Andre Swift. On the other hand, Texas has had a solid season but has struggled at times against top competition.

In terms of odds, Georgia is currently favored by around 7 points in most sportsbooks. The over/under for the game is set at around 58 points, indicating that oddsmakers are expecting a relatively high-scoring affair.

When it comes to player props, there are several key players to keep an eye on in this game. For Georgia, Jake Fromm will be a focal point of the offense and will likely have a big impact on the outcome of the game. D’Andre Swift is also a player to watch, as he has been one of the top running backs in the SEC this season.

On the Texas side, quarterback Sam Ehlinger will be crucial to the Longhorns’ success. He has thrown for over 3,000 yards and 25 touchdowns this season and will need to have a big game against Georgia’s tough defense. Wide receiver Lil’Jordan Humphrey is another player to watch, as he has been a big-play threat for Texas all season.

Overall, the SEC Championship game between Georgia and Texas is shaping up to be a highly competitive and exciting matchup. With expert predictions favoring Georgia, it will be interesting to see if Texas can pull off the upset and secure a spot in the College Football Playoff. Fans can expect a high-scoring game with plenty of exciting plays from both teams.