October 16, 2024

Sport and Betting News

Saturday Night College Football: Predictions, Picks, and Odds for Boise State vs Hawaii

14 mins
  • We’ve made our Boise State vs Hawaii prediction for Saturday night CFB
  • The Broncos are heavily favored on the road against the Rainbow Warriors
  • Read below for Boise State vs Hawaii odds, prediction and best bets

The No. 17 Boise State Broncos (4-1, 1-0 Mountain West) head to the island to take on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (2-3, 0-1) in a late Saturday night clash on October 12th, 2024. Kickoff is set for 11 p.m. ET at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu and the game will be televised on CBS Sports Network.

Boise State opens as a heavy 20.5-point favorite with an over/under of 59.5 points. The Broncos are -1600 on the moneyline, implying a 94.1% probability they get the win, while Hawaii is a +900 underdog, giving them just a 10% implied probability of pulling off the upset.

Here is our Boise Stare vs Hawaii prediction for Saturday late-night college football.

Boise State vs Hawaii Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Boise St -21 (-110) -1600 Over 60.5 (-105)
Hawaii +21 (-115) +900 Under 60.5 (-110)

The Broncos are a massive -1600 moneyline favorite, which is 90% implied win probability. The lopsided odds indicate just how much Boise State has impressed so far this season and how little faith oddsmakers have in Hawaii to keep this competitive.

The Broncos’ only loss was by 3 points on the road against Oregon, while their four wins have come by an average of nearly 27 points.

Meanwhile, Hawaii’s only wins have come against FCS opponents and they’ve lost three of their last four overall. The Over/Under of 59.5 points is on the higher end, likely due to Boise’s explosive offense that is averaging over 50 points per game.

Broncos Betting Analysis

Boise State’s dominance this season can be attributed to one man – running back Ashton Jeanty. The Heisman odds frontrunner leads the nation in rushing yards (1,031), rushing touchdowns (16), and yards per carry (10.8). He’s been nearly unstoppable, eclipsing 1,000 yards in just five games.

Jeanty’s prop bets reflect his torrid pace – his TD prop is -3000 or higher on a weekly basis. He’s having the type of season that draws comparisons to Barry Sanders at Oklahoma State. Astonishingly, the junior ball-carrier has a 99.8 PFF grade so far, the highest mark ever given out.

Behind Jeanty, Boise’s offense ranks 2nd nationally in EPA per play and 4th in explosiveness. QB Maddux Madsen hasn’t been asked to do much (85/135, 1056 yards, 10 TD, 2 INT) with the way Jeanty is rolling.

When called upon though, Madsen has struggled, as evidenced by his performance vs Oregon (3.7 ypa, 54.8 PFF grade) when Jeanty was out the 2nd half.

The Broncos defense remains a concern, ranking 114th in EPA/play allowed and dead last in explosiveness allowed. Against Utah State last week, BSU gave up 371 pass yards and 9.1 yards per attempt in what was mostly garbage time. If Jeanty has an off day, can the Broncos defense hold up?

Rainbow Warriors Betting Analysis

Hawaii may be just 2-3, but they’ve been competitive, with close losses to UCLA and San Diego State. The Rainbow Warriors have really shined on dn defense, ranking 12th in Success Rate and 10th in EPA/Play allowed. The front seven especially has been stingy, slotting 8th in Front 7 Havoc and 33rd in PFF’s Rush Defense grades.

Offensively, Hawaii lives and dies by the pass under coach Timmy Chang. Quarterback Brayden Schager has thrown for respectable numbers (124/205, 1328 yards, 11 TD, 6 INT) but has been hurt by drops. His receiving corps has 18 drops, most in the nation.

Still, the Warriors rank 51st in Passing Success Rate and Schager has been solid on intermediate throws (1-19 yards), posting a 78.2 PFF grade. Against Boise’s 106th-ranked pass defense, he should have opportunities for chunk plays.

Hawaii’s biggest improvement from last year has been Finishing Drives, where they now rank 40th. Compare that to a Boise defense that’s 82nd in Finishing Drives allowed, and the Warriors should be able to cash in when they get chances.

Boise State vs Hawaii Prediction

I’m taking Hawaii +21 in this matchup, but I do think Boise State ultimately gets the win. The look-ahead spot with UNLV on deck worries me that the Broncos. They are 21-point road favorites tonight, and may get caught sleepwalking a bit.

Hawaii’s run defense is legit, ranking top-35 in EPA, Success Rate and Defensive Line Yards. Are they going to completely shut down Jeanty? Probably not. But they can do enough to make Madsen try to beat them.

On the other side, I expect Schager to have success against this porous Boise secondary that’s allowing 8.5 yards per attempt. The Warriors also have a special teams advantage, ranking 50th in PFF Special Teams vs 103 for the Broncos.

At the end of the day, I think Boise’s talent edge is too much and they pull away for a 45-27 type of win. But catching three scores with an underdog that is 7-2 ATS in their last nine conference games is too good to pass up.

Lay the 21 with the Warriors and hope to catch Boise State napping in Hawaii. The over is also appealing if you think Schager and Hawaii can hit their team total of 20.5 points.

Saturday CFB Pick:

  • Rainbow Warriors +21 (-110)
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Saturday night college football is set to be an exciting matchup as Boise State takes on Hawaii. Both teams are coming off strong performances in their previous games and are looking to continue their success on the field.

Boise State comes into this game with a record of 4-1, with their only loss coming against Oklahoma State in a close game. The Broncos have been led by their strong offense, which is averaging over 30 points per game. Quarterback Hank Bachmeier has been impressive so far this season, throwing for over 1,200 yards and 9 touchdowns. Running back George Holani has also been a key player for the Broncos, rushing for over 400 yards and 4 touchdowns.

On the other side, Hawaii is coming into this game with a record of 2-3. The Rainbow Warriors have had a tough start to the season, but they are coming off a big win against New Mexico last week. Quarterback Chevan Cordeiro has been a bright spot for Hawaii, throwing for over 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns so far this season. The Rainbow Warriors also have a strong running game, led by Dae Dae Hunter who has rushed for over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns.

In terms of predictions and picks for this game, Boise State comes in as the favorite with odds of -7.5. The Broncos have been playing well on both sides of the ball and should be able to control the game against Hawaii. However, the Rainbow Warriors have shown that they can put up points and keep games close, so this could be a competitive matchup.

Overall, Saturday night college football fans can expect an exciting game between Boise State and Hawaii. With two high-powered offenses going head-to-head, this game has the potential to be a high-scoring affair. Ultimately, Boise State’s strong play on both offense and defense should give them the edge in this matchup.

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