Aug 31, 2024; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs quarterback Blake Shapen (2) drops back to pass against the Eastern Kentucky Colonels during the third quarter at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports
- Arizona State vs Mississippi State is featured on Saturday Night College Football
- The Sun Devils are 5.5-point favorites in the ASU vs Mississippi State odds
- Read below for Mississippi State vs Arizona State odds, pick and prediction
The Mississippi State Bulldogs travel to the desert to take on the Arizona State Sun Devils on Saturday, September 7th at 10:30 p.m. ET. This intriguing Week 2 matchup between SEC and Pac-12 foes will be televised nationally on ESPN from Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe, Arizona.
The Sun Devils opened as 2.5-point home favorites but have since been bet up to -5.5 at most sportsbooks. The total opened at 59.5 points and has held steady throughout the week.
Here is a look at the ASU vs MSST odds, along with our betting pick and prediction for Saturday night college football.
Arizona State vs Mississippi State Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi State | +5.5 (-115) | +180 | Over 59.5 (-105) |
| Arizona State | -5.5 (-105) | -220 | Under 59.5 (-115) |
The Sun Devils are laying nearly a touchdown, which implies a 64% probability they defend their home turf. Mississippi State faces an uphill battle as 5.5-point road underdogs, with just a 36% implied win probability at +180 on the moneyline.
Bettors would need to risk $220 to win $100 on Arizona State, a steep price indicative of oddsmakers’ confidence in the Sun Devils. Bulldogs backers can get +180 odds, meaning a $100 bet would profit $180 if Mississippi State pulls the upset.
Odds as of August 31, 2024, at ESPN Sportsbook. Lock in the ESPN Bet promo code to wager on Saturday college football.
Bulldogs Betting Analysis
Mississippi State enters a new era under offensive guru Jeff Lebby. The former Oklahoma play-caller has a proven track record of designing high-powered attacks.
As Oklahoma’s offensive coordinator in 2022-23, the Sooners finished 8th in scoring (41.5 PPG) among all FBS teams. While Lebby was Ole Miss’s OC in 2020-21, the Rebels ranked 3rd in total offense (555.5 YPG)
Lebby brought in Baylor transfer QB Blake Shapen to orchestrate his up-tempo Air Raid system. Shapen, who threw for 5,500+ yards over three years with the Bears, shined in his Bulldogs debut, completing a hyper-efficient 15-of-20 passes for 247 yards and 3 TDs against Eastern Kentucky.
Blake Shapen is putting them on the money pic.twitter.com/GiW3Yo1UXm
— Hail State Stool (@HailStateStool) August 31, 2024
Shapen distributed the ball to a trio of receivers for scores, but lightning-quick wideout Kevin Coleman emerged as his go-to target. The former Ohio State receiver torched the Colonels for 88 yards and a TD on just two catches, showing the game-breaking ability that made him a top-50 recruit.
The offensive line, despite replacing three starters, imposed its will in the trenches. MSU Ball State rushed for 203 yards at a robust 5.6 yards per carry. On the other side of the ball, a physical defensive front led by Georgia product De’Monte Russell tallied four sacks and forced two fumbles.
However, the secondary remains a question mark after allowing the 4th-most passing plays of 30+ yards in the SEC last season. Shapen will need to consistently move the chains and finish drives to keep that suspect pass defense off the field against an explosive ASU attack.
Sun Devils Betting Analysis
It’s a new era in Tempe under former ASU quarterback Kenny Dillingham. The 32-year-old wunderkind wasted no time overhauling the roster, bringing in a whopping 30 transfers.
The most impactful addition looks to be Michigan State transfer QB Sam Leavitt. In his first college start, the redshirt freshman looked poised beyond his years, completing 14-of-22 passes for 258 yards and 2 TDs. Leavitt also flashed dual-threat ability with 47 rushing yards.
This was one of Sam Leavitt’s most impressive plays in Arizona State’s win over Wyoming.
Leavitt feels the pressure off the edge, steps up in the pocket, keeps his eyes down field and hits the check down. He didn’t look like a redshirt freshman.
pic.twitter.com/DLsX88fipV— Anthony Totri (@Anthony_Totri) September 3, 2024
Leavitt spread the wealth to a deep collection of playmakers, none more impressive than rangy receivers Giovanni Sanders and Xavier Guillory. The sophomores scored on 68 and 52-yard bombs, respectively, exposing a Wyoming secondary that ranked 124th in passing yards allowed in 2023.
ASU also boasts one of the Pac-12’s most experienced offensive lines. Anchored by All-Conference left tackle BJ Baylor, the unit returns four starters and paved the way for 241 rushing yards on a gaudy 4.9 yards per carry against the Cowboys.
The Sun Devils defense, which struggled mightily in ranking 89th nationally last season, showed signs of improvement in the opener. ASU generated three turnovers, scoring touchdowns off both a fumble recovery and interception. However, a green front seven that replaces six starters remains a work in progress.
Mississippi State vs Arizona State Prediction
Get your popcorn ready, folks. We’ve got a good ol’ fashioned Wild West shootout on our hands. Both teams rolled up 40+ points in Week 1 and I don’t expect either offense to slow down on Saturday night.
The total has gone over in seven of Mississippi State’s last 10 Saturday games. It’s also sailed over in five of Arizona State’s last six contests overall.
In the CFB public betting splits, 55% of bets are on the under 59.5 points, but the over is drawing 54% of the money. This signals some respected big-money wagers on a shootout.
I’m rolling with the over 59.5 points, but I also like the Sun Devils laying 5.5 at home. Leavitt is the real deal and will outduel Shapen in a game ASU leads wire-to-wire. The Sun Devils’ experience advantage in the trenches will be the difference.
Saturday CFB Picks:
- Arizona State -5.5 (-105)
- Over 59.5 (-105)
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Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
In a highly anticipated Saturday night matchup, the Mississippi State Bulldogs will face off against the Arizona State Sun Devils in what is sure to be an exciting college football game. Both teams are coming off strong performances in their previous games and will be looking to continue their winning streaks.
The Bulldogs are currently 2-0 on the season and are coming off a dominant 38-17 victory over NC State. Led by quarterback Will Rogers, who has thrown for 646 yards and five touchdowns so far this season, Mississippi State’s offense has been firing on all cylinders. The Bulldogs also boast a strong defense that has held opponents to just 17 points per game.
On the other side, the Sun Devils are also 2-0 on the season after defeating UNLV 37-10 in their last game. Quarterback Jayden Daniels has been impressive, throwing for 380 yards and four touchdowns in the first two games. Arizona State’s defense has also been solid, allowing just 13 points per game.
In terms of odds, Mississippi State is currently favored by 3.5 points in this matchup. The over/under is set at 52 points, indicating that oddsmakers are expecting a relatively high-scoring game.
When it comes to picking a winner in this game, it’s a tough call. Both teams have been playing well and have strong offenses and defenses. However, I believe that Mississippi State’s passing attack will give them the edge in this game. If Will Rogers can continue to find success through the air, the Bulldogs should be able to come out on top.
Ultimately, this game has all the makings of a close and competitive matchup. Fans can expect to see a high-scoring affair with plenty of exciting plays on both sides of the ball. It should be a thrilling Saturday night showdown between two talented teams.