Jan 28, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) prepares to throw the ball as Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Drue Tranquill (23) defends during the first half in the AFC Championship football game at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
- Bettors are on the Ravens as 3-point underdogs ahead of the NFL season-opener versus the Chiefs
- Under 47 is drawing the vast majority of the tickets on the total
- See all the Ravens vs Chiefs public betting splits for the NFL Season Opener on September 5
The NFL is back, and schedule makers have spoiled us with a heavyweight tilt in the season opener. Patrick Mahomes and the defending Super Bowl-champion Kansas City Chiefs host Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens in a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship Game.
Which way are bettors leaning ahead of tonight’s kick-off? The table below sets out the Ravens vs Chiefs public-betting splits for Thursday Night Football.
Ravens vs Chiefs Betting Splits & Percentages
| Team | Spread | ATS Handle% | ATS Bet% | Total Points | O/U Handle% | O/U Bet% | Moneyline | ML Handle% | ML Bet% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | +3 | 65% | 65% | 47 | 39% | 19% | +130 | 67% | 25% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -3 | 35% | 35% | 47 | 61% | 81% | -150 | 33% | 75% |
KC opened as a 2.5-point favorite when the Week 1 NFL odds were initially released, but since then that number has climbed to -3. Catching a field goal with Jackson is apparently too good to pass up, as his Ravens are drawing 65% of the against-the-spread handle and wagers per the NFL public betting trends.
Public-betting splits as of 2:15 pm ET, September 5, at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim the top DraftKings promos for NFL Week 1.
NFL Spread Betting Splits Favor Ravens
Historically, Jackson has been an ATS cash cow as an underdog. He’s 12-1-1 as a dog over the course of his career, covering seven straight times dating back three years. Going on the road has not phased Jackson one bit, as he’s compiled a 68% cover rate (25-12-2) in six NFL seasons.
Ravens (+3) @ Chiefs on Thursday Night Football
Lamar has been an underdog 14 times in his career.
12-1-1 against the spread
10-4 straight upThat’s the best ATS and straight up performance by a QB as an underdog (at least 10 games) in the TruMedia database.
— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) September 4, 2024
Also working in Baltimore’s favor is head coach John Harbaugh’s against-the-spread prowess in Week 1. In 16 season openers, Harbaugh’s Ravens are 12-4 ATS, the second best mark among head coaches in the Super Bowl era.
Despite those glowing trends, there’s plenty of reasons to back the Chiefs as well. Not only is Kansas City the two-time defending champ, and the favorite in the Super Bowl 59 odds, they’re also riding the NFL’s longest ATS cover streak at six games.
Everyone knows Mahomes as an underdog is an auto-bet, but he’s been very profitable as a short favorite as well. When laying 3-points or fewer, Mahomes-led teams are 11-7 ATS (61%).
Betting on the defending champs has historically been a sharp move in Week 1, as they’ve posted a 13-7-3 against the spread mark in the last 23 years.
Ravens vs Chiefs Total Favors a Low-Scoring Game
When you think Jackson vs Mahomes, offense immediately comes to mind. Yet, last season both team’s success was predicated on strong defenses. The Ravens and Chiefs finished as the top-two scoring defenses in 2023, and most bettors are expecting this contest to underwhelm offensively.
Top 5 NFL Scoring Defenses in 2023
| Team | Rank |
|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 1 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 2 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 3 |
| Buffalo Bills | 4 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 5 |
The total opened up at 46.5 and has fluctuated between that number and 47 all summer. 47 is where the market currently sits, and most bettors are hammering the under. Currently, that side of the total is drawing a whopping 81% of the tickets.
For what it’s worth, the NFL over under trends agree. Primetime unders are 70-42-1 over the past two seasons, including 35-23 last season. KC contests were 12-5 to the under last regular season, with eight of their nine home games falling short of the total.
NFL Moneyline Handle Favors Baltimore
As of Wednesday afternoon, more money had been bet on Baltimore’s moneyline than any other Week 1 underdog. 67% of the moneyline handle is backing Jackson and company in this contest, and that number is the result of just 25% of the moneyline tickets. That’s typically an indication of sharp action, as wise guys tend to wager much more than casual bettors.
Jackson’s impeccable record as a dog is the main driver. He’s 10-4 straight up as an underdog in his career, which is the best winning percentage among any quarterback with at least six starts.
However, bet against Mahomes at your own risk. The three-time Super Bowl champ is 36-11 all-time at home, and 20-4 overall in the first four weeks of an NFL season.
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As SBD’s resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he’d rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
The highly anticipated NFL season-opener between the Baltimore Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs is set to kick off, and fans are eagerly placing their bets on which team will come out on top. Public betting and money splits for this game are a hot topic of discussion among sports bettors and analysts alike.
Public betting refers to the percentage of bets placed on each team by the general betting public. Money splits, on the other hand, refer to the percentage of total money wagered on each team. These metrics can provide valuable insights into where the public sentiment lies and how much money is being wagered on each team.
In the case of the Ravens vs Chiefs matchup, early indications suggest that there is a fairly even split in both public betting and money wagered. Both teams are considered top contenders in the AFC, with the Ravens led by star quarterback Lamar Jackson and the Chiefs led by reigning Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes.
The Ravens are coming off a strong 2020 season, finishing with an impressive 11-5 record and making it to the divisional round of the playoffs. They have a dynamic offense led by Jackson, who is known for his dual-threat abilities as a passer and runner. The Ravens also boast a strong defense, which could pose a challenge for the high-powered Chiefs offense.
On the other hand, the Chiefs are coming off a Super Bowl victory and have established themselves as one of the top teams in the league. Mahomes is widely regarded as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and he has a talented supporting cast that includes wide receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce.
With both teams boasting strong rosters and high-powered offenses, it’s no surprise that public sentiment is split on this game. Bettors are likely weighing factors such as home-field advantage, injuries, and recent performance when making their picks.
As kickoff approaches, it will be interesting to see how public betting and money splits evolve. Will one team emerge as a clear favorite among bettors, or will the split remain close until game time? Only time will tell, but one thing is for certain – this matchup between the Ravens and Chiefs is sure to be a thrilling start to the NFL season.