Preview: Phoenix Mercury vs Dallas Wings – Prediction, Odds, and Player Props for Wednesday, July 3rd

Jun 30, 2024; Phoenix, Ariz., U.S.; Phoenix Mercury guards Kahleah Copper (2) and Diana Taurasi (3) and center Brittney Griner (42) wait for free throws during the fourth quarter against the Indiana Fever at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Michael Chow-Arizona Republic

• The Phoenix Mercury face the Dallas Wings in Wednesday’s lone WNBA game
• We’ve made our Mercury vs Wings prediction for Wednesday night, plus identified player props
• Read below for Mercury vs Wings prediction, odds and player props to wager on

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The Phoenix Mercury battle the Dallas Wings on Wednesday, July 3, 2024 at 8:00 PM ET/5:00 PM PT. The game will be televised on Fubo TV and WNBA League Pass.

According to FanDuel, the Mercury are 4.5-point favorites with a moneyline of -200, while the Wings are 4.5-point underdogs at +175. The total is set at 171 points with the over and under both at -110.

Here is our Mercury vs Wings prediction, along with WNBA player props to wager on.

Mercury vs Wings Prediction

This will be the third meeting between the Mercury and Wings this season. Phoenix suffered a 107-92 blowout loss in their first matchup before bouncing back with a 97-90 double-overtime victory. The Mercury, currently at 9-10, are looking to snap a two-game losing streak and gain a series edge over the 4-15 Wings.

The Mercury have been inconsistent on both ends of the floor, ranking 7th in offensive rating and 9th defensively. However, they boast a potent offensive trio in Kahleah Copper (21.8 ppg), Brittney Griner (20.0 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.3 bpg), and Diana Taurasi (16.6 ppg).

Copper’s ability to create her own shot and Griner’s dominant interior presence will likely prove too much for the injury-plagued Wings to contain. We’re targeting her in the WNBA player props further below.

KAHLEAH COPPER AND CAITLIN CLARK BATTLING EARLY 😤 pic.twitter.com/W6cXGxMkhi

— ESPN (@espn) June 30, 2024

Dallas has struggled mightily, losing 13 of their last 14 games. Injuries to key players like Satou Sabally, Maddy Siegrist, and Jaelyn Brown have left Arike Ogunbowale (23.7 ppg) to carry the offensive load.

While Ogunbowale has historically dominated against Phoenix, averaging 23.8 points in 17 career matchups, the Wings’ lack of depth and firepower will hinder their ability to keep pace with the Mercury.

Expect a high-scoring affair, as both teams play at a fast pace and have had defensive issues. However, the Mercury’s star power and the Wings’ injury woes give Phoenix the edge. The Mercury should win and cover the 5-point spread in a game that goes over the 171-point total.

PHX-DAL Picks:

• Mercury -4.5 (-110)
• Over 171 Points (-110)

Mercury vs Wings Odds

The Mercury enter this game as 4.5-point favorites with a moneyline of -200, implying a 67.7% probability of victory. On the other hand, the Wings are 4.5-point underdogs at +175, suggesting a 36.4% chance of pulling off the upset.

The odds reflect the discrepancy in the teams’ records and overall performance this season. The Mercury, despite their inconsistencies, have fared better than the Wings, who have been plagued by injuries and have lost 13 of their last 14 games.

Furthermore, the Mercury have already defeated the Wings once this season and have the star power advantage with Copper, Griner, and Taurasi leading the charge. The Wings’ reliance on Ogunbowale and their defensive struggles have also likely influenced the odds in Phoenix’s favor.

Odds as of July 3, 2024, at FanDuel Sportsbook. 

Phoenix vs Dallas Player Props

Here are a few of the player props we are targeting for Wednesday’s WNBA game:

Kahleah Copper Over 20.5 Points (-120)

Copper is the Mercury’s leading scorer, averaging 21.8 ppg. The Wings have the second-worst defensive rating (107.5) and allow the most paint points per game (40.0), which plays to Copper’s strengths as a slasher.

Furthermore, Copper has averaged 30.5 points in two games against the Wings this season. She’s a great bet to go over her point projection tonight given her proven track record against this defense.

Arike Ogunbowale Over 22.5 Points

Ogunbowale leads the Wings with 23.7 ppg and has exceeded this line in 61% of her games. She has averaged 28.3 ppg against the Mercury over the past few seasons, exceeding 22.5 points in 8 of 9 head-to-head matchups.

The fast-paced nature of this game should provide Ogunbowale with plenty of scoring opportunities. Considering we are forecasting a high-scoring affair, we’re also backing Ogunbowale to exceed her point total tonight.

Wings vs Mercury Injury Report

Dallas Wings:

• F Maddy Siegrist (broken finger) – Out
• F Satou Sabally (shoulder) – Out, not expected to play until after the Olympics
• G Jaelyn Brown – Out

The Wings’ injury woes have been a significant factor in their struggles this season. The absence of Siegrist and Sabally has left the team without two of their top scorers, putting more pressure on Ogunbowale to carry the offensive load. Brown’s absence further depletes their depth.

Phoenix Mercury:

• G Charisma Osborne – Day-to-day

Osborne’s potential absence is less impactful than the Wings’ injuries, as the Mercury still have their core trio of Copper, Griner, and Taurasi available. However, if Osborne is unable to play, it could affect the Mercury’s backcourt depth and perimeter defense.

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