Preview: Capitals vs Oilers – Prediction, Odds, and Starting Goalies for January 21st

• The Washington Capitals (31-10-5) visit the Edmonton Oilers (29-14-3) on Tuesday night
• The Oilers will be without Connor McDavid against Alex Ovechkin and the Caps
• Read our Capitals vs Oilers prediction and pick for this matchup on January 21, 2025

The NHL-leading Washington Capitals (31-10-5) head north of the border to battle the Edmonton Oilers (29-14-3) at Rogers Place on Tuesday, January 21, 2025. Puck drop is scheduled for 9:00 PM Eastern Time, with the game televised on Sportsnet and MNMT.

Edmonton is a -150 home favorite, while the over/under is set at 5.5 goals. Will the Oilers prove the oddsmakers right and defend home ice without suspended superstar Connor McDavid?

Let’s analyze this East tilt and make our Capitals vs Oilers prediction.

Capitals vs Oilers Prediction

I’m taking the Oilers to get the job done on home ice, even without McDavid in the lineup. The betting market has undervalued Edmonton in this spot due to McDavid’s three-game ban and the public heavily backing Washington.

However, the Oilers are no one-trick pony, having posted a 22-27-10 record without McDavid over the years. With the likes of Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and more, they still have the firepower to light the lamp. Edmonton is also highly motivated to bounce back from a tough loss to the rival Canucks that snapped their four-game win streak.

Sharp money is pouring in on the Oilers as well, moving the line from Edmonton -140 to -150 despite McDavid’s absence and the public backing the Caps. The wise guys clearly see value on the Oilers at home against a Washington team that’s primed for regression.

While the Capitals own the NHL’s best record, a deeper look at their last 10 games reveals poor possession numbers (47.31% Corsi For, 47.25% Fenwick For), being outshot (44.62% Shot Share), and subpar Scoring Chance (46.82%) and High-Danger Chance (47.53%) shares. Most concerningly, Washington has an unsustainably high 1.057 PDO, driven by an inflated 10.34% shooting percentage and 95.37% save percentage.

The Caps have rode a PDO bender and incredible goaltending from Logan Thompson to this point, but it feels like smoke and mirrors compared to the rock solid underlying metrics boasted by Edmonton. The Oilers should control play at 5v5.

Finally, Edmonton’s stellar 15-7-1 home record and rowdy Rogers Place crowd can’t be overlooked. I’m grabbing the Oilers moneyline at a decent -150 price before it steams any higher. Edmonton has the edge in advanced stats, scoring depth, motivation and home ice to prevail even without their captain. Lay the juice on the Oil.

Tuesday NHL Pick:

• Oilers Moneyline (-140 at Bet99)

Capitals vs Oilers Odds

The Oilers are -140 moneyline favorites to come out on top. A successful $140 wager on Edmonton would profit $100. The Capitals are +120 underdogs – a $100 bet would net $120.

Edmonton is +165 to cover -1.5 goals, while Washington is -236 to stay within 1.5 goals. The over/under is set at a modest 5.5 goals, with the over slightly favored at -115 and the under at -105.

Odds as of Jan. 21, at Bet99. See our Bet99 review page for current offers.

Projected Starting Goalies

At first glance, Thompson has a statistical advantage over Skinner. The Caps netminder has been in the Vezina Trophy conversation all season long and enters on an incredible run. However, we already touched on Washington’s unsustainable team save percentage of 95.37%. Some cracks are beginning to show.

Meanwhile, Skinner has been very solid in his own right with an 18-10-3 record. The Oilers allow the fewest goals per game (2.43) and shots per game (27.4) in the league, which makes Skinner’s job much easier. They also kill penalties at an impressive 84.2% clip (3rd).

The Oil have too many edges in their favor to pass up at this price. Trust Edmonton’s 5v5 play, depth and lively crowd to carry them sans McDavid. The Oilers moneyline is the play.

The Washington Capitals will face off against the Edmonton Oilers on January 21st in what is sure to be an exciting matchup between two of the top teams in the NHL. Both teams have been playing well this season and are currently sitting near the top of their respective divisions.

The Capitals come into this game with a record of 25-10-4, good for second place in the Metropolitan Division. They have been led by their dynamic duo of Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom, who have been lighting up the scoreboard all season long. Ovechkin leads the team with 23 goals, while Backstrom leads in assists with 29.

On the other side, the Oilers have been led by their superstar duo of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. McDavid leads the league in points with 63, while Draisaitl is not far behind with 56. The Oilers currently sit in second place in the Pacific Division with a record of 24-15-2.

In terms of odds, the Capitals are currently favored to win this game with a moneyline of -130, while the Oilers are sitting at +110. The over/under for total goals scored in this game is set at 6.5.

As for the starting goalies, it is expected that Braden Holtby will get the nod for the Capitals, while Mikko Koskinen will likely be between the pipes for the Oilers. Holtby has been solid this season with a record of 18-9-4 and a save percentage of .909, while Koskinen has been equally impressive with a record of 16-10-2 and a save percentage of .917.

Overall, this game has all the makings of a high-scoring affair between two of the top teams in the league. It will be interesting to see which team comes out on top and solidifies their spot near the top of their respective divisions. Be sure to tune in on January 21st to catch all the action!