Preview: Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning – Prediction, Odds, and Starting Goalies for Thursday, March 6th

• The Buffalo Sabres (24-30-6) visit the Tampa Bay Lightning (36-21-4) on Thursday, March 6, 2025
• The NHL odds have the Lightning as heavy home favorites at -250 on the moneyline, with the total set at 6.5 goals
• Read below for our Sabres vs Lightning prediction and best bets for Thursday night hockey at Amalie Arena

An Atlantic Division matchup is on tap Thursday night as the Buffalo Sabres (24-30-6) head to the Sunshine State to face the Tampa Bay Lightning (36-21-4) at Amalie Arena. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 PM ET on ESPN.

The NHL betting odds have the Lightning as hefty -250 home favorites, with the Sabres at +200 on the moneyline. The total is set at 6.5 goals, juiced to the Under at -115.

Let’s dive into the matchup in our Sabres vs Lightning prediction and determine the best bets for Thursday night.

Sabres vs Lightning Prediction

While the Sabres have beaten the Lightning in their last two meetings, I’m backing Tampa Bay on the puck line (-1.5) at plus-money (+105) to win big at home. The Lightning enter on a six-game home winning streak in which their offense has caught fire, outscoring opponents 26-7.

Goaltending is also trending heavily in Tampa’s favor. Likely Lightning starter Andrei Vasilevskiy (29-16-3, 2.18 GAA, .923 SV%) has been on a tear, going 11-3-1 with a league-best .943 SV% since mid-January. Meanwhile, Sabres netminder Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (20-18-4, 3.06 GAA, .892 SV%) has struggled of late, allowing 10 goals on his last 62 shots faced.

The Lightning’s advantage grows when you look at the season-long numbers. Tampa ranks 5th in goals against (2.61) and 2nd in scoring (3.56), whereas Buffalo is 29th in goals against (3.45) while scoring the 12th-most (3.15). The Sabres are also just 9-16-3 on the road compared to the Bolts’ dominant 22-7-2 home record.

Nikita Kucherov (90 points in 58 games) is making a case for the Hart Trophy and has torched Buffalo for 11 points in their last eight meetings. Look for him to keep rolling alongside linemates Brayden Point (64 points) and 2024 deadline acquisition Jake Guentzel (60 points). Brandon Hagel (68 points) provides a dangerous secondary threat.

The Sabres will likely be overmatched without any significant injuries reported for the Lightning. Even if Luukkonen stands on his head, I don’t think Buffalo will generate enough offense to keep up with Tampa’s firepower. The Lightning have won 28 of their 36 games this year by 2+ goals.

At an enticing +105 price, back the Lightning to make a statement at home and crush a reeling Sabres squad. Tampa is the far better team on paper and I expect that to translate onto the ice at Amalie Arena. Give me the Bolts to win big in a high-scoring affair.

Sabres vs Lightning Odds

The Lightning are listed as heavy home favorites at -250 on the moneyline, while the Sabres are +200 road underdogs. Tampa is +105 to cover the -1.5 puck line and win by 2+ goals, whereas Buffalo is -125 to stay within the +1.5 puck line in a loss or win outright.

The total is set at 6.5 goals, with the Over priced at -105 and the Under at -115. That indicates some lean toward a relatively high-scoring game, which makes sense given the Lightning’s offensive prowess and the Sabres’ defensive woes.

If you like the Lightning to win a one-goal game, you can get them at +320 to prevail by exactly one tally. The same wager for the Sabres comes back at a hefty +600 price.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM as of March 6, 2025. Claim the BetMGM promo code and wager on Sabres-Lightning.

Sabres vs Lightning Starting Goalies

Buffalo Sabres: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (20-18-4, 3.06 GAA, .892 SV%)
Luukkonen has scuffled in his last 3 outings, yielding 10 goals on his last 62 shots faced for an abysmal .839 SV%. The young Finn is a decent 8-6-2 on the road this season, however.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Andrei Vasilevskiy (29-16-3, 2.18 GAA, .923 SV%)
Vasilevskiy has been in Vezina form, going 11-3-1 with an NHL-best .943 SV% since January 16. He’s allowed 2 goals or less in 10 of his last 13 starts overall. Vasilevskiy is a remarkable 21-5-2 with a 1.86 GAA on home ice in 2024-25.

The Buffalo Sabres will face off against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday, March 6th in what is sure to be an exciting matchup between two talented teams. Both teams are currently fighting for playoff positioning, with the Sabres sitting just outside of a wild card spot and the Lightning comfortably in a playoff position.

The Sabres have been playing well as of late, winning four of their last five games. They have been getting strong performances from their top players, including Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart. Eichel leads the team in points with 78, while Reinhart has 21 goals on the season. The Sabres will need these players to continue their strong play if they hope to come out on top against the Lightning.

On the other side, the Lightning have been one of the top teams in the league all season. They are led by their dynamic duo of Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos, who have combined for 157 points this season. The Lightning also have a strong goaltending tandem in Andrei Vasilevskiy and Curtis McElhinney, who have both been solid between the pipes.

In terms of odds, the Lightning are favored to win this game. According to oddsmakers, the Lightning have a 60% chance of coming out on top, while the Sabres have a 40% chance of pulling off the upset. However, anything can happen in hockey, so it will be interesting to see how this game plays out.

As for the starting goalies, it is likely that Carter Hutton will get the nod for the Sabres, while Andrei Vasilevskiy will likely start for the Lightning. Hutton has a 12-11-4 record this season with a .898 save percentage, while Vasilevskiy has a 35-13-3 record with a .917 save percentage.

Overall, this game has the potential to be a high-scoring affair with two talented teams facing off. It will be interesting to see which team comes out on top and solidifies their playoff positioning. Be sure to tune in on Thursday, March 6th to catch all of the action.