- The Mavericks visit the West-leading Thunder on Sunday night in a rematch of last year’s conference semifinals
- Luka Doncic (illness) is out for the Mavs, while OKC is without Chet Holmgren, Alex Caruso, and Jaylin Williams
- See the Dallas Mavericks vs OKC Thunder predictions, player props, and best available odds on Nov. 17
The depth of the OKC Thunder (11-2, 7-1 home, 9-4 ATS) has been on full display early in the season as the injury-riddled team has raced out to an 11-2 start. On Sunday night, the West-leading Thunder will look to extend their lead at the top of the conference when they host the reigning conference-champion Dallas Mavericks (6-7, 1-4 away, 5-7-1 ATS) at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City at 7:10 pm ET. The Thunder, who lost to the Mavericks in six games in the West semifinals last season, are seven-point home favorites in Sunday’s NBA odds as they face a Dallas team missing MVP contender Luka Doncic.
Dallas Mavericks vs OKC Thunder Predictions
- Thunder -4.5 (-156) at FanDuel Sascha Paruk’s 2024-25 NBA betting record: 19-16 (+4.18 units). All wagers one unit unless stated otherwise
This line was OKC -4.5 on Sunday morning prior to the announcement that Doncic would be in street clothes. It immediately moved four points to OKC -8.5 when the news broke before coming back down to OKC -7.0. The total decreased from 231 to 229.
I’m not going to lay the full seven, but I am going to bet on OKC to win comfortably. Even with Doncic in the lineup, Dallas has been thoroughly mediocre this year as they adjust to new faces like Klay Thompson and Naji Marshall. This will be their first game of the season without Doncic, who leads the team with 28.2 PPG, 7.8 RPG, and 7.8 APG. He was limited to just 16 points in 25 minutes last time out in a 110-93 home win over San Antonio, which snapped an ugly four-game losing streak for the Mavs.
OKC, meanwhile, leads the NBA in Net Rating (+12.7), sitting just 13th on offense (113.5) but first – by a wide margin – on defense (100.8, which is 2.7 better than second-ranked Orlando).
Last time out, they held Phoenix to just 83 points in a 99-83 home victory. While the Suns were missing both Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal, 83 is still an impressive number, especially against a 9-4 team with Devin Booker running the point.
Dallas went just 4-8 without Doncic last season, with all eight setbacks coming by at least seven points. That includes a 126-119 loss at OKC on March 14, 2024, when Kyrie Irving had a game-high 36 points in a losing effort. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had 31 to pace the Thunder.
DAL vs OKC Player Props
| Player | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Three-Pointers Made |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) | 31.5 (Ov -113 | Un -113) | 5.5 (Ov -122 | Un -104) | 6.5 (Ov +108 | Un -138) | 1.5 (Ov -146 | Un +114) |
| Kyrie Irving (DAL) | 25.5 (Ov -111 | Un -115) | 4.5 (Ov +114 | Un -146) | 6.5 (Ov -106 | Un -120) | 2.5 (Ov -125 | Un -102) |
| Jalen Williams (OKC) | 21.5 (Ov -108 | Un -118) | 6.5 (Ov +110 | Un -140) | 5.5 (Ov +120 | Un -154) | 1.5 (Ov -130 | Un +102) |
| Klay Thompson (DAL) | 18.5 (Ov -106 | Un -120) | 3.5 (Ov +106 | Un -136) | OFF | 3.5 (Ov -136 | Un +106) |
| Luguentz Dort (OKC) | 12.5 (Ov -115 | Un -111) | 4.5 (Ov -100 | Un -128) | OFF | 2.5 (Ov +122 | Un -156) |
| Isaiah Joe (OKC) | 10.5 (Ov -125 | Un -102) | OFF | OFF | 2.5 (Ov -118 | Un -108) |
| Aaron Wiggins (OKC) | 10.5 (Ov -100 | Un -128) | 4.5 (Ov +114 | Un -146) | OFF | 1.5 (Ov +136 | Un -174) |
| Derrick Lively Jr (DAL) | 8.5 (Ov -102 | Un -125) | 8.5 (Ov -120 | Un -106) | OFF | OFF |
| Cason Wallace (OKC) | 6.5 (Ov -118 | Un -108) | 3.5 (Ov +142 | Un -186) | OFF | OFF |
NBA player props from FanDuel on Nov. 17.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has the highest point total of the night at 31.5 O/U. Kyrie Irving leads the Mavs at 35.5. Irving’s point total was sitting at 21.5 before Doncic was ruled out for the game, at which point it jumped four full points to its current number. Same goes for Thompson, who was listed at 14.5 and then increased to 18.5.
Derrick Lively Jr has the highest rebound total of the night at 8.5, while Irving and SGA have the highest assist totals, both at 6.5 O/U.
Best Mavericks vs Thunder Odds
Despite the late-breaking Doncic news, the Mavericks vs Thunder odds have already aligned at most sportsbooks. The spread is OKC -7 except at BetMGM and ESPN Bet, where it’s currently 7.5. BetMGM has the better odds on Dallas +7.5 at -110. FanDuel is the only sportsbook currently offering OKC -7 at -110 odds.
FanDuel also has the best price on the OKC moneyline at -260 while BetMGM and Caesars both have Dallas at +240, which is the longest price available.
There is a one-point range in the game total. BetMGM is on the high end at 229.5 while FanDuel is on the low end at 228.5. ‘
The NBA public betting splits were all over the Mavericks to cover as 4.5 to 5.0-point underdogs back when Doncic was slated to play, getting 80% of ATS handle as road underdogs. It remains to be seen how the public will play this game now that Doncic, the fourth-favorite in the NBA MVP odds, is out.
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The Dallas Mavericks are set to face off against the OKC Thunder on November 17th in what is sure to be an exciting matchup. Both teams have had solid starts to the season, with the Mavericks currently sitting at 7-4 and the Thunder at 5-6. As we look ahead to this game, let’s take a closer look at some predictions, player props, and the best odds for this showdown.
Predictions:
The Mavericks come into this game as the favorites, thanks in large part to their dynamic duo of Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. Doncic has been playing at an MVP level this season, averaging 26.8 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 8.4 assists per game. Porzingis has also been a force on both ends of the court, averaging 20.5 points and 8.2 rebounds per game. With these two leading the way, the Mavericks should have the edge in this game.
On the other hand, the Thunder have been playing well despite their young roster. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been a standout player for OKC, averaging 19.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per game. With his scoring ability and playmaking skills, he will be a key player to watch in this matchup.
Player Props:
For the Mavericks, look for Luka Doncic to have a big game against the Thunder. He has been on a tear recently and should continue his strong play in this matchup. Look for him to score over 30 points and dish out double-digit assists.
For the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will need to have a big game if they want to pull off the upset. Look for him to score over 25 points and grab at least 6 rebounds in this game.
Best Odds:
As of now, the Mavericks are favored to win this game by around 5 points. The over/under for total points scored is set at 218.5. If you’re looking to place a bet on this game, consider taking the Mavericks to cover the spread and the over on total points scored.
In conclusion, the Mavericks vs Thunder game on November 17th is shaping up to be a competitive matchup between two talented teams. With Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis leading the way for Dallas, they should have the edge in this game. However, don’t count out Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder, as they have shown they can compete with anyone. It should be a thrilling game that fans won’t want to miss.