- We’ve locked in our USC vs Michigan prediction for CFB Week 4
- The USC vs Michigan odds now favor the Trojans to win by 5.5 points
- Read below for USC vs Michigan prediction, betting odds, and injury report updates
USC makes their anticipated Big 10 debut on the road at the Big House in college football Week 4 on Saturday. Kickoff is Saturday, September 21st at 3:30 pm ET at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor.
The Trojans enter the matchup undefeated at 2-0, while Michigan is 2-1. The Trojans are favored by 5.5 points with an over/under of 44.5 points.
Here is our USC vs Michigan prediction, along with a breakdown of the betting odds and injury report.
USC vs Michigan Prediction
We’re about to find out if this USC team is for real after starting the season 2-0 with wins over LSU and Utah State. They face their first true test against the defending national champions, who are struggling out of the gate.
The Wolverines have gotten off to a shaky 2-1 start, with lackluster wins over Fresno State and Arkansas State. In their marquee matchup with Texas, Michigan suffered a 19-point home loss. It’s not hard to see why this betting line has completely flipped in the CFB odds.
The big storyline for USC vs Michigan is the Wolverines’ quarterback situation. Michigan is turning to dual-threat Alex Orji after going with Davis Warren for the first three games. I expect a more run-heavy approach, executing play-action passes to keep USC’s defense off balance.
Alex Orji is Michigan QB1️⃣.#B1GFootball pic.twitter.com/sRhuLZpQ5A
— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) September 16, 2024
The game may hinge on Michigan’s ability to establish the run and control the clock to keep USC’s potent offense on the sidelines. However, USC has notably improved its tackling under Deon Lynn, limiting opponents to just 14 points per game and 3.6 yards per carry.
Michigan is severely lacking in offensive firepower, especially if Colston Loveland is unable to go. I don’t think they will be able to keep pace with this high-powered USC offense. Michigan has blitzed approximately 50% of snaps, which could leave them vulnerable to big downfield plays by Miller Moss.
The Trojans are averaging 37.5 points per game in 2024, and I predict they win by one score or more on Saturday. There are too many elite offensive playmakers on this team, and Michigan’s usually elite defense is ranking 114th in pass efficiency this year.
USC vs Michigan Pick:
- Trojans to Cover -5.5 (-110)
USC vs Michigan Betting Line
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| (11) USC | -5.0 (-110) | -210 | Over 43.5 (-115) |
| (18) Michigan | +5.0 (-110) | +175 | Under 43.5 (-105) |
The USC vs Michigan odds show the Trojans as the -210 moneyline favorites, which is 67.7% implied probability. If you’re getting the Trojans ATS, they would need to win by six or more points for the bet to payout. As +175 underdogs, Michigan has 36.4% implied probability.
The betting market’s view of this game has shifted dramatically since the offseason. Michigan was initially favored by as many as 13 points in early lookahead lines over the summer. However, after USC’s strong start and Michigan’s struggles, the line flipped to USC -3 when sportsbooks posted the first Week 4 line.
We have some serious movement on @DKSportsbook for College Football Week 4 spreads since the opening lines came out over the summer:
🏈 Clemson -10 ➡️ -20.5 vs. NC State
🏈 Oklahoma -5 ➡️ +7 vs. Tennessee
🏈 Michigan -11 ➡️ +5.5 vs. USC
— Julian Edlow (@julianedlow) September 17, 2024
The spread has since moved further in USC’s direction, with the Trojans now favored by 5.5 points at most sportsbooks. This significant line movement indicates that sharp bettors and the betting market have gained respect for USC and lost confidence in Michigan based on the first three weeks.
As of Thursday, 75% of early spread bets and 82% of the money is on USC -5.5, signaling heavy public support for the Trojans as well. Check out the CFB public betting trends for all the latest bet and money percentages.
Odds as of Sep. 19, 2024 at ESPN Sportsbook.
USC vs Michigan Injury Report
The Trojans and Wolverines have released their official injury reports ahead of Saturday’s highly anticipated Big Ten clash at Michigan Stadium. Both teams have key players listed as questionable, which could impact the odds.
USC Trojans
The Trojans have two players listed as questionable for Saturday:
- TE Warren Matthews (undisclosed)
- LB Mason Cobb (undisclosed)
Matthews and Cobb are both battling undisclosed injuries. Their status will be worth monitoring, as both are key contributors. Matthews provides a big target for QB Miller Moss in the passing game, while Cobb is a leader on USC’s much-improved defense under new coordinator D’Anton Lynn.
Michigan Wolverines
The Wolverines have several notable players on their injury report:
- TE Colston Loveland (undisclosed) – Questionable
- LB Micah Pollard (undisclosed) – Questionable
- RB Jordan Marshall (undisclosed) – Questionable
- DB Jaden Mangham (undisclosed) – Questionable
- WR Tyler Morris (undisclosed) – Questionable
- QB Jack Tuttle (elbow) – Questionable
- DB Rod Moore (knee) – Out
Loveland’s status looms large, as the star tight end leads Michigan in targets (24) and receptions (19). His absence would be a big blow to a Wolverines passing attack that has struggled mightily so far, ranking outside the top 100 nationally in most categories.
The potential absences of Pollard, Marshall, Mangham, and Morris would further deplete Michigan’s depth on both sides of the ball. Tuttle was expected to be in the mix at quarterback, but his ongoing recovery from a torn UCL puts his availability in doubt.
Moore, a starting safety, will miss a significant portion of the season after tearing his ACL in early September. With the Wolverines’ pass defense ranking 99th in completion percentage allowed (64%), Moore’s absence will be felt against USC’s high-powered aerial attack.
The highly anticipated matchup between the USC Trojans and the Michigan Wolverines on September 21 is sure to be a thrilling game for college football fans. Both teams have had strong starts to the season, making this game a must-watch for any sports enthusiast.
In terms of predictions, this game is shaping up to be a close one. Both USC and Michigan have talented rosters and experienced coaching staffs, so it could really go either way. However, many experts are leaning towards Michigan as the favorite in this matchup. The Wolverines have a strong defense and a potent offense led by quarterback Shea Patterson, which could give them the edge in this game.
As for picks, bettors may want to consider taking Michigan to cover the spread in this game. The Wolverines have been playing well so far this season and have shown that they can compete with some of the top teams in the country. USC, on the other hand, has had some struggles early on and may have a tough time keeping up with Michigan’s high-powered offense.
In terms of the betting line, Michigan is currently favored by around 7 points in this game. This could change as we get closer to kickoff, so bettors should keep an eye on the line and make their wagers accordingly.
In terms of the injury report, both teams are relatively healthy heading into this game. USC has had a few players dealing with minor injuries, but they are expected to be ready to go for this matchup. Michigan has also been fortunate on the injury front, with no major concerns heading into this game.
Overall, the USC vs Michigan game on September 21 is shaping up to be a competitive and exciting matchup. Both teams have a lot to play for and will be looking to make a statement with a big win. College football fans should definitely tune in to see how this game plays out.