Jan 28, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) passes the ball against the Baltimore Ravens during the second half in the AFC Championship football game at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
- Two-time defending Super Bowl-champion Kansas City opens the 2024 season at home against Baltimore on Thursday Night Football
- The Chiefs bet the Ravens 17-10 in last year’s AFC Championship Game, their only meeting in the last two seasons
- Below, see the Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs predictions and picks. plus the best odds for the spread, moneyline, and total
The 2024 NFL regular season starts with a heavyweight clash as the two-time defending Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs (16-6, 6-4 home, 13-7-1 ATS last season including playoffs), host the Baltimore Ravens (14-5, 7-4 home, 12-7 ATS) at Arrowhead Stadium on Thursday Night Football in Week 1 (8:25 pm ET).
Despite a mediocre regular season last year, when they were just 5-4 straight-up at home, the Chiefs are listed as three-point home favorites in the Week 1 NFL odds, while the game total is either 46 or 46.5 depending on the sportsbook.
Below, find my two favorite Ravens vs Chiefs picks for TNF, followed by the best odds for the first TNF matchup of the 2024 season.
Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs Predictions
- Ravens +3 (-115) at BetMGM
- Under 46.5 (-110) at FanDuel
The Chiefs did their best to keep the key pieces of their dynasty intact in the offseason, re-signing both Travis Kelce and Chris Jones. The departure of Le’Jarius Snead in the secondary will be felt, but for the most part, the ’24 Chiefs look very similar to the ’23 iteration that won a second straight Lombardi Trophy. The main addition was wide receiver Marquise Brown. “Hollywood” is currently out with a shoulder injury, though. So, in Week 1, the biggest addition to the uninspired WR group that Patrick Mahomes somehow led to a championship last season will be rookie Xavier Worthy, the #28-overall pick out of Texas.
On the other side, the Ravens feature one massive change: longtime Tennessee Titan and former 2,000-yard rusher Derrick Henry replaces Gus Edwards as the RB1. Henry is coming off arguably his worst season in half a decade. The standard for Henry is, of course, lofty, and he still rushed for just over 1,100 yards and 12 touchdowns at a respectable 4.2 YPC.
On paper, the biggest issue for Baltimore heading into the season is the offensive line, which ranks 25th in the NFL according to PFF. The team lost a trio of starters (John Simpson, Kevin Zeitler, and Morgan Moses) and their only additions to the O-line were through the draft. But Henry ran behind progressively-worse offensive lines in Tennessee and still managed to remain the best RB in the league, while the footspeed of Lamar Jackson under center will help mitigate the opposing pass rush, as long as he’s learned from his mistakes in last year’s AFC Championship Game.
Lamar Jackson vs. Kansas City’s big blitzes (6+ pass rushers) in the AFC championship game:
1-for-6, 13 yards, 1 sack, -0.76 EPA/drop-back
Defenses want to heat up Jackson. The Ravens’ Super Bowl hopes could rest on how they punish it.
📽️ Film study: https://t.co/aMVEw2JTkW pic.twitter.com/K67XW8CzUX
— Jonas Shaffer (@jonas_shaffer) September 2, 2024
All in all, the Ravens are still the regular-season power they were last season, when they won a league-best 13 games, while also posting a league-best +203 point differential. They start the season as the third-favorite in the Super Bowl odds. Yes, the Chiefs managed to eke out a 17-10 road win at Baltimore in last year’s AFC title game, but if the Ravens don’t commit the only three turnovers (and/or take eight penalties for 85 yards compared to just three for 30 for KC), it’s Baltimore that’s playing for the Lombardi Trophy.
I’m also expecting a much higher-scoring game than the 17-10 postseason slugfest last time these teams met. The Ravens averaged 24.5 PPG in their seven true-road games last year, and that number isn’t likely to go down with Henry bolstering an already-excellent ground attack.
Best Ravens vs Chiefs Odds
The spread is Chiefs -3 across the board with only slight variations in price. The best odds on the Ravens to cover as field-goal underdogs is currently -115 at BetMGM. The best price on Kansas City to cover the spread is even-money at Caesars and bet365.
The best Chiefs moneyline is -150 at both bet365 and BetMGM while the longest odds for a straight-up Ravens victory is +130 at DraftKings.
There is more variety in the game total. Both DraftKings and FanDuel have the O/U at 46.5 with FanDuel offering a slightly better price (-110 vs -112). BetMGM, bet365, and Caesars list it at 46.0 at -110 odds.
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The highly anticipated matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday Night Football is sure to be a thrilling game for football fans. Both teams are coming off successful seasons and have high expectations for the upcoming year. With star quarterbacks Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes leading their respective teams, this game is shaping up to be a battle of two of the best signal-callers in the league.
The Ravens are coming off a strong 2019 season where they finished with a 14-2 record and secured the top seed in the AFC. Led by MVP Lamar Jackson, the Ravens have one of the most dynamic offenses in the league. Jackson’s ability to both run and pass makes him a nightmare for opposing defenses, and he will be looking to continue his success against the Chiefs.
On the other side, the Chiefs are coming off a Super Bowl victory and are looking to defend their title. Led by superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs have one of the most explosive offenses in the league. Mahomes’ ability to make plays both inside and outside of the pocket makes him one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the league, and he will be looking to lead his team to victory against the Ravens.
In terms of predictions for this game, it is shaping up to be a high-scoring affair. Both teams have potent offenses and suspect defenses, so expect plenty of points to be scored. The key for both teams will be which defense can make a crucial stop when it matters most.
As for picks, it is tough to bet against either team in this matchup. Both the Ravens and Chiefs have elite talent on both sides of the ball, so this game could go either way. However, if forced to make a pick, the slight edge may go to the Chiefs due to their experience and success in big games.
In terms of odds, the Chiefs are currently favored by a slim margin, with most sportsbooks listing them as 3-point favorites. The over/under for this game is set at around 54 points, which seems like a reasonable line given the offensive firepower of both teams.
Overall, this Thursday Night Football matchup between the Ravens and Chiefs is sure to be a must-watch game for football fans. With two of the best quarterbacks in the league going head-to-head, expect plenty of fireworks and excitement as these two powerhouse teams battle it out on the gridiron.