- Check out our North Texas vs Texas State prediction for the First Responder Bowl
- The Bobcats are heavy favorites over the Mean Green on Friday afternoon
- Read on for North Texas vs Texas State odds, pick, and best bets
College football fans are in for a rare Friday afternoon treat on January 3, 2025 as the North Texas Mean Green (6-6) clash with the Texas State Bobcats (7-5) in the First Responder Bowl. Kickoff at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, TX is set for 4:00 PM ET with live coverage on ESPN.
The Bobcats have moved to hefty 14-point favorites in a game that’s got an over/under of 65.5 points.
Let’s dive into our North Texas vs Texas State prediction for the First Responder Bowl.
North Texas vs Texas State Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Texas | +14.0 (-110) | +430 | Over 65.5 (-115) |
| Texas State | -14.0 (-110) | -600 | Under 65.5 (-105) |
Texas State is laying 14 points, with the -600 moneyline giving them about a 69% chance to win outright. North Texas comes in as sizable +430 underdogs.
These odds really tell the story of Texas State’s more consistent season, plus the mess North Texas is dealing with thanks to opt-outs and the transfer portal.
The total has taken a nosedive, dropping more than a touchdown from the opener as both offenses have been gutted by departures.
Odds as of January 3, 2025, at Caesars Sportsbook. Take advantage of the Caesars promo code to bet on the First Responder’s Bowl.
Mean Green Betting Analysis
That high-powered Mean Green offense that put up 488.7 yards and 34 points per game? Yeah, it’s going to look pretty different in this one.
Star QB Chandler Morris (3,774 yards, 31 TDs) bolted for Virginia. Now they’re turning to true freshman Drew Mestemaker, who’s thrown all of five passes in his college career.
North Texas will start Freshman quarterback, Drew Mestemaker who has played a total of 41 snaps this season…
More importantly, Mestemaker in his final two years in H/S at the quarterback (16 games) position finished with more tackles on defense (11) than touchdowns (5)
— Shayne Trail (@ShayneTrail) January 3, 2025
They’ve also lost their top playmaker DT Sheffield (66 catches, 822 yards, 11 TDs), plus several tight ends and O-linemen. At least they’ve still got Shane Porter (95 carries, 643 yards, 5 TDs) to carry the load on the ground.
The Mean Green offense has already been sliding, going from 41.6 points per game in their first 7 FBS matchups to just 20.5 over their last 4. Hard to see them finding their groove again with all these new faces.
The defense hasn’t done them many favors either, giving up 456.6 yards and 34.5 points per game. Despite some nice plays from Jaylen Smith, Chavez Brown, and Roderick Brown, this unit could be in trouble if things turn into a shootout.
Bobcats Betting Analysis
Texas State’s offense has been just as explosive, averaging 474.3 yards and 37.1 points per game. Unlike North Texas though, they’ve managed to keep most of their key pieces.
QB Jordan McCloud has been a dual threat, throwing for 2,920 yards and 29 TDs while running for another 276 yards and 7 scores. His favorite targets Joey Hobert (66 catches, 661 yards, 8 TDs) and Jaden Williams (43 catches, 606 yards, 5 TDs) are still around.
Jordan McCloud has been one of the BEST QB’s in all of CFB over the past two seasons. 🤐
⭐️ 5,770 Pass Yards
⭐️ 57 Pass TD
⭐️ 69.4 CMP%
⭐️ 561 Rush Yards
⭐️ 14 Rush TD pic.twitter.com/1JPF3KVu9d— College Football Edits (@CollegeEdits) November 23, 2024
The one big hit is losing all-Sun Belt RB Ismail Mahdi and his 990 rushing yards to the NFL Draft. But Lincoln Pare (411 yards, 6 TDs) has shown he can handle the workload.
The Bobcats’ defense has been solid all year, allowing just 347.9 yards and 24.3 points per game. They’ve been equally tough against the pass (199.8 ypg) and run (148.2 ypg).
Jordan Polk and Ryan Nolan anchor a strong secondary, while James Neal and Kalil Alexander create havoc up front. They should have a field day against UNT’s makeshift offense.
North Texas vs Texas State Prediction
I’m rolling with Texas State -14 here. They’re simply better equipped to handle all the roster turnover from transfers and opt-outs. North Texas is starting a freshman QB behind a patchwork O-line with no top receiver. Meanwhile, the Bobcats have their QB, most of his weapons, and a defense that’s been getting it done all year.
That defensive edge looms large in what could be a lower-scoring game than expected. The total has plummeted from 72 to 65.5, and I still like the under with both coaches likely to give their young guys plenty of run.
The trends aren’t doing North Texas any favors, either. They’re 0-6 straight up in their last six bowl games and haven’t covered in their last five games overall. Meanwhile, Texas State was favored in every game this season for good reason.
When there are this many missing pieces, give me the team with more continuity and better trends. Texas State -14 and under 65.5 is the play in the First Responder Bowl.
Friday Afternoon Bowl Picks:
- Texas State -14 (-110)
- Under 65.5 (-110)
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The First Responder Bowl is set to kick off with an exciting matchup between North Texas and Texas State. Both teams are coming off solid seasons and will be looking to end their year on a high note with a victory in this bowl game.
North Texas finished the regular season with a 6-6 record, while Texas State ended with a 7-5 record. Despite their similar records, North Texas comes into this game as the favorite with odds of -3.5. The Mean Green have a potent offense led by quarterback Jace Ruder, who has thrown for over 2,000 yards and 14 touchdowns this season. They also have a strong rushing attack led by DeAndre Torrey, who has rushed for over 800 yards and 11 touchdowns.
On the other side, Texas State has a solid defense that has kept them in games all season. The Bobcats are led by linebacker Gavin Graham, who has recorded over 100 tackles this season. Offensively, they are led by quarterback Brady McBride, who has thrown for over 2,500 yards and 17 touchdowns.
In terms of predictions, this game is expected to be a close one with both teams having the potential to come out on top. North Texas has the edge on offense, while Texas State has the advantage on defense. It will likely come down to which team can make the big plays when it matters most.
Overall, this matchup is shaping up to be an exciting one for fans of both teams. With both teams hungry for a bowl victory, expect a competitive game with plenty of action on both sides of the ball. It’s sure to be a thrilling way to kick off the bowl season.