Predictions, Picks, and Odds for Arkansas State vs Bowling Green in the 68 Ventures Bowl

• Bowling Green is a 10-point favorite vs Arkansas State in the 68 Ventures Bowl
• The Falcons will be with0ut a handful of key players who have transferred
• Check the latest Arkansas State vs Bowling Green odds, spread and prediction below

It’s a Boxing Day clash in the south, as the Bowling Green Falcons (7-5, 6-2 MAC) take on the Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5,  Sun Belt) in the 68 Ventures Bowl. Oddsmakers like the Falcons, but a deeper look at the roster leaves some room for an upset in the latest College Football odds.

Arkansas State vs Bowling Green Odds

The Red Wolves are 10-point road underdogs, with a total set at 53.5 points.

The College Football public betting trends skew heavily to Bowling Green, with 73% of the betting public taking them to cover with 84% of the money.

Kickoff is scheduled for 9pm ET at Hancock Whitney Stadium, in Mobile, Alabama, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Odds as of December 26 at 2pm ET. Be sure to check out the best Caesars Sportsbook promos before placing a bet on any College Football Bowl Games.

Bowling Green Roster Altered

The transfer portal has done a number of the Falcons ahead of their 68 Ventures Bowl.

Leading rusher Terion Stewart, who had 890 yards on a healthy 5.6 yard average and six touchdowns, has transferred out to Virginia Tech.

Jaison Patterson (4.4 average) and Jamal Johnson (7.6 average) looked poised to take over the running duties, but they’ll be hampered as all-conference tackle Alex Wollschlaeger transferred to Kentucky.

On top of that, the best player in this game, star tight end Harold Fannin Jr, might only be suiting up to reach a few milestones as he prepares for the NFL next year.

Harold Fannin Jr is simply him pic.twitter.com/HEMDY228wm

— Football Analysis (@FBallAnalysisYT) December 15, 2024

A sure lock to go pro, Fannin is short 11 yards to become the all-time single-season leader for yards by a tight end. One catch might be his day, as the risk to the draft stock seems absurdly high for this one record.

Those losses severely hamper an offensive unit that was fourth in the MAC in scoring at 26.8 points per game, and helped the Falcons rip off five wins in their final six to go bowling.

It doesn’t stop there: a defense that ranked Top 4 in the conference allowing 20.3 points per game will lose linebacker Joseph Sipp, who’s transferring to Kansas.

Red Wolves Can Stay Close

Arkansas State finished the year winning four of its final six, scoring 27 or more points in five of those games, looking far better offensively than the unit that was ranked 11th in the Sun Belt, averaging 24.8 points per game.

The Red Wolves finished 68th in the nation with 227.1 passing years per game, led by pivot Jaylen Raynor, who threw for more than 2,500 yards and 14 interceptions.

He enters this contest coming off a 317-yard, one TD, one interception day in a 34-31 win over Central Arkansas.

Jaylen Raynor with the 35 yd TD pass to Courtney Jackson 🎯 pic.twitter.com/MJJqMO0u7O

— Arkansas State Football (@AStateFB) November 30, 2024

Also look for their running attack to roam a little more freely without Sipp at LB.  Zak Wallace for 622 yards and a team-best 10 touchdowns, while Ja’Quez Cross ran for 600 yards on a nice 5.6 yard average.

Defensively, we’ll see if the Red Wolves can take advantage of those BG losses. They are currently 129th in the nation allowing 461.6 yards per game, while ranking 132nd in rush yards allowed at 227.2 per contest.

Arkansas State vs Bowling Green Prediction

Bowling Green isn’t the same team if Fannin Jr isn’t gravitationally pulling defenses toward him, and letting the others eat. Wollschlaeger isn’t protecting his pivot and setting up run lanes for Stewart.

Quarterback Conor Bazelak had a good year, throwing for 2,654 yards and 15 TD’s, but the next four top pass catchers after Fannin Jr had 108 grabs, just eight more than the star tight end, with Malcolm Johnson’s 47 catches, 500 yards and two scores all second to Fannin Jr.

Arkansas State’s defense is poor, but it’s not as exploitable without the Falcons’ top guns available.

While it doesn’t drop down to slugfest levels, offense will be harder to come by, and so it should be closer than expected.

Arkansas State vs Bowling Green Pick:

• Arkansas State +10 (-110)

The 68 Ventures Bowl is set to be an exciting matchup between Arkansas State and Bowling Green. Both teams have had successful seasons and are looking to end on a high note with a win in this bowl game. Let’s take a closer look at the predictions, picks, and odds for this game.

Arkansas State comes into this game with a record of 7-5, while Bowling Green finished the season at 8-4. Both teams have shown flashes of brilliance throughout the season, but also have had their fair share of struggles. Arkansas State has a potent offense led by quarterback Layne Hatcher, who has thrown for over 3,000 yards and 27 touchdowns this season. On the other hand, Bowling Green has a strong defense that has been able to shut down some of the best offenses in the country.

In terms of predictions, this game is expected to be a close one. Both teams have shown that they are capable of putting up points on the board and playing solid defense. It will likely come down to which team can make the fewest mistakes and capitalize on their opportunities. Arkansas State will look to exploit Bowling Green’s defense with their passing attack, while Bowling Green will try to control the clock and keep Arkansas State’s offense off the field.

As for picks, it’s a tough call. Arkansas State has the edge on offense, while Bowling Green has the advantage on defense. It could go either way, but I would give a slight edge to Arkansas State in this matchup. They have more experience in bowl games and have shown that they can compete with some of the best teams in the country.

In terms of odds, Arkansas State is currently favored by 3 points in this game. The over/under is set at 55 points, indicating that oddsmakers expect a relatively high-scoring affair. It will be interesting to see how this game plays out and which team comes out on top.

Overall, the 68 Ventures Bowl between Arkansas State and Bowling Green is shaping up to be a competitive and entertaining matchup. Both teams have something to prove and will be looking to end their season on a high note. It should be a close game that could go either way, but ultimately I believe Arkansas State will come out on top in this one.