Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) in action against the Buffalo Bills NFL football game Jan 07, 2024, in Miami Gardens.
- AFC East rivals meet on TNF as the Buffalo Bills visit the Miami Dolphins on Sep. 12
- The Bills took both games last year by a combined score of 69-27, but Miami is favored on Thursday
- See the Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins predictions, picks, and best odds for the Week 2 edition of Thursday Night Football
First place in the AFC East will be on the line tomorrow when the Buffalo Bills (1-0, 0-0 away, 0-1 ATS) and Miami Dolphins (1-0, 1-0 home, 0-1 ATS) meet on Thursday Night Football at Hard Rock Stadium at 8:15 pm ET. Both picked up come-from-behind victories in the season-openers but neither managed to cover the spread as home favorites.
The Week 2 Bills vs Dolphins odds opened at Miami -1.5 but all books have now moved the line a full point in favor of the home team while the game total has come down two full points at most books, from 50.5 to 48.5.
Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins Predictions
- Bills moneyline (+120) at FanDuel
- Over 48.5 (-112) at DraftKings
- Sascha Paruk’s 2024 NFL betting record: 4-3 (+0.64 units)
Both Buffalo and Miami were less than convincing in Week 1. The Bills needed to come back from an early 17-3 deficit as 6.5-point home favorites against the Arizona Cardinals. Both the offense and the defense buckled down at that point, though. Buffalo went on a 28-3 run to take a 31-20 lead it would not surrender during a 34-28 victory.
In his first game since Stefon Diggs was traded to Houston, Josh Allen looked more than comfortable with his new-look receiving corps. Allen went 18/23 for 232 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. Nine different players caught passes, led by Keon Coleman with four catches for 51 yards.
Miami, similarly, rallied from a 17-7 first-half deficit from against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Phins’ defense pitched a second-half shutout while recently-detained Tyreek Hill scored an electric 80-yard touchdown.
Tyreek Hill. 80 yards for a TD!
📺: #JAXvsMIA on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/fNSbBgqRVI— NFL (@NFL) September 8, 2024
Unfortunately for the Dolphins, they came out of Week 1 more banged up than most teams. Starting running back Raheem Mostert is out with a chest injury while backup De’Von Achane is questionable with a leg injury. The two combined for 119 total yards and a TD in Week 1. Mostert finished last season with 1,012 yards and 18 touchdowns on the ground.
The Dolphins were also outclassed twice by Buffalo last season. The Bills dominated a 48-20 decision in Buffalo in Week 4 before earning a 21-14 victory in Miami in Week 18. The final score of that regular-season finale flattered Miami; Buffalo piled up 473 yards to Miami’s 275 while holding possession for 38:07 minutes to 21:53 the Dolphins.
While there are new/different faces on both sides, I don’t expect a terribly different result this time around. The Bills have Miami’s number and I love the value on Buffalo at +120 on the moneyline, especially on a short week with Miami banged up.
Best Bills vs Dolphins Odds
As mentioned, the opening Week 2 NFL odds listed the spread at just Miami -1.5 but early money has come in on the Phins, pushing it up a full point to Miami -2.5. The number is the same at every book, though there is some slight variation in the price: FanDuel has the best odds on Buffalo to cover at -105 while Caesars, Bet365, and BetMGM all have Miami -2.5 at -110.
The best moneyline on the Bills is also at FanDuel, where Buffalo is +120 to win straight-up. The best odds on a Miami win are -135 at bet365 and DraftKings.
There is more variation in the game total. After opening at 50.5, it’s come down as low as 48.5 at FanDuel and DraftKings, but only to 49.0 at bet365, BetMGM, and Caesars.
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Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
The Thursday Night Football matchup for Week 2 features an AFC East showdown between the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins. Both teams are coming off of losses in Week 1 and will be looking to bounce back with a win in this divisional matchup.
The Bills, led by quarterback Josh Allen, are coming off a tough loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1. Despite Allen throwing for over 270 yards and a touchdown, the Bills struggled to get their offense going against a tough Steelers defense. The Bills will need to establish a better running game and protect Allen better if they want to come out on top in this game.
On the other side, the Dolphins are also looking to rebound from a Week 1 loss to the New England Patriots. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa had a decent game, throwing for over 200 yards and a touchdown, but the Dolphins were unable to get much going on offense. The Dolphins will need to establish a better running game and improve their pass protection if they want to have a chance against the Bills.
In terms of predictions, this game could go either way. Both teams have talented rosters and are capable of putting up points on offense. However, the Bills have the edge in terms of overall talent and experience, which could give them the upper hand in this matchup.
As for picks, the Bills are currently favored by -3.5 points according to most sportsbooks. This seems like a fair line considering the Bills’ talent and experience compared to the Dolphins. However, divisional matchups are always tricky and anything can happen on any given Thursday night.
In terms of best odds, the over/under for this game is currently set at 47.5 points. Given both teams’ struggles on offense in Week 1, it may be wise to take the under in this matchup. Additionally, taking the Bills to cover the spread at -3.5 points could also be a smart bet considering their talent and experience.
Overall, Thursday Night Football should provide an exciting matchup between two AFC East rivals looking to bounce back from Week 1 losses. The Bills have the edge in terms of talent and experience, but anything can happen in a divisional matchup. It will be interesting to see how this game plays out and which team comes out on top.