Dec 1, 2022; Doha, Qatar; Spain midfielder Pedri (26) reaches for the ball against Japan during the second half of a group stage match during the 2022 World Cup at Khalifa International Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Yukihito Taguchi-USA TODAY Sports
- Spain are slight favorites over France in the 2024 Euro semifinals on Tuesday
- Spain will be without star midfielder Pedri plus half of its starting backline
- See Spain vs France predictions, expert picks, and the best odds available less than 24 hours before kickoff
A matchup worthy of the Euro 2024 final will instead take place in the first semi on Tuesday when Spain (4-1-0) meet France (2-3-0) at Allianz Arena in Munich at 3:00 pm ET.
After winning their first four games of the tournament in regular time, Spain were forced to extra time by host Germany in the quarterfinals, where Mikel Merino played the hero with the winner in the 119th minute (2-1 AET).
France failed to score over 120 minutes of regular time and extra time against Portugal, but blasted five nearly unstoppable penalty kicks past Diogo Costa en route to a 0-0 (5-3) shootout victory.
Spain has undoubtedly looked like the better of the two teams so far in the tournament, but with at least a trio of starters out of the lineup, they are only slight favorites to advance to the Euro 2024 final.
Spain vs France Predictions & Expert Picks
- France to advance to the final (+100 at bet365)
- First half under 0.5 goals (+136 at FanDuel)
Sascha Paruk’s 2024 Euro/Copa America betting record: 35-17-1 (+20.93 units).
All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.
I expect the script for Spain vs France to look similar to France’s 0-0 stalemate with Portugal. Kylian Mbappe is obviously much less than 100% and the French attack has been uncharacteristically anemic as a result. As every news outlet has reported, no French player has scored a goal from open play in the tournament. France got a penalty from Mbappe in their 1-1 draw with Poland and their other two goals (during 1-0 wins over Austria and Belgium) were both own goals off opposition defenders.
France’s defense, however, has been phenomenal. They held their opposition to just 2.18 xGA in the group stage, and (0.79 of that came from a borderline penalty call against Poland). In the round of 16, they conceded just 0.26 xGA to Belgium. Portugal were able to generate some quality scoring chances in the second half of their quarterfinal clash with France, but still finished with 0.99 xGF over the first 90 minutes.
Spain have a brilliant attack, but with midfield maestro Pedri injured, and center back Robin Le Normand and right back Dani Carvajal suspended, I expect them to play a more conservative style against France. The players they’re bringing into the lineup aren’t much of a step down (Nacho Fernandez should take over Le Normand’s role in central defense, while Dani Olmo replaces Pedri, and either Jesus Navas or Alejandro Grimaldo subs in for Carvajal) but it’s still a less cohesive lineup being thrust into a crucible. “Caution” will be the watchword for coach Luis Enrique.
Best Spain vs France Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Total | To Advance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | +175 | Over 2.5 (+175) | -120 |
| France | +214 | Under 2.5 (-200) | +100 |
| Draw | +194 | — | — |
The opening Spain vs France odds listed Spain at +180 to win in regular time with both a France victory and a full-time draw at +187. Most books have since shifted the odds slightly in Spain’s favor. The longest odds on a Spain regular-time win are +175 at DraftKings and bet365. The best price on a France win in regular time (+214) and a full-time draw (+194) are also at bet365.
The game-total prices have generally moved in favor of the under. The opening odds had over 2.5 goals at +162 with under 2.5 at -200. The best under price is still -200 while the over odds are as long as +170 at DraftKings.
Some books have established 1.5 O/U as the default total.
The longest odds on Spain qualifying for the final can be found at FanDuel where La Roja are -120. The best odds on France advancing are +100 at both DraftKings and bet365.
The winner of Spain vs France will face the winner of Wednesday’s England vs Netherlands match at Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund. The current Euro 2024 title odds show Spain (+191) as the outright favorite, followed by England (+246), France (+274), and the Netherlands (+450).
Recent Spain vs France H2H History
| Date | Location | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2021 | Neutral (Italy) | Nations League | Spain 1-2 France |
| Mar 28, 2017 | France | Friendly | France 0-2 Spain |
| Sep 4, 2014 | France | Friendly | France 1-0 Spain |
| Mar 26, 2013 | France | WC Qual | France 0-1 Spain |
| Oct 16, 2012 | Spain | WC Qual | Spain 1-1 France |
| Jun 23, 2012 | Neutral (Ukraine) | Euro 2012 | Spain 2-0 France |
| Mar 3, 2010 | France | Friendly | France 0-2 Spain |
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.
The highly anticipated Euro 2020 semifinal between Spain and France is set to take place on July 9th, and fans are eagerly awaiting what promises to be a thrilling match between two football powerhouses. Both teams have shown impressive performances throughout the tournament, making it difficult to predict the outcome of this clash.
Spain, led by coach Luis Enrique, has been playing some of the most attractive football in the tournament. Their possession-based style of play has seen them dominate games and create numerous scoring opportunities. With players like Ferran Torres, Alvaro Morata, and Pedri in top form, Spain will be looking to continue their attacking prowess against France.
On the other hand, France, the reigning World Cup champions, have a star-studded lineup that includes the likes of Kylian Mbappe, Antoine Griezmann, and N’Golo Kante. Coached by Didier Deschamps, France has shown their quality in both attack and defense, making them a formidable opponent for any team.
When it comes to predictions for this match, it is truly a tough call. Both teams have the talent and experience to come out on top, and it could ultimately come down to which team performs better on the day. However, if we were to make a prediction, France might have a slight edge due to their individual brilliance and defensive solidity.
In terms of picks for this match, it would be wise to keep an eye on players like Mbappe and Griezmann for France, as they have the ability to change the game with their skill and creativity. For Spain, players like Morata and Torres will be crucial in front of goal, while Pedri’s midfield control could be key to unlocking France’s defense.
As for the best odds for this match, bookmakers are likely to have France as slight favorites due to their recent success and star-studded lineup. However, given Spain’s impressive performances in the tournament so far, they should not be underestimated. It will be a close match, and fans can expect an exciting encounter between two of Europe’s top teams.
Overall, the Euro 2020 semifinal between Spain and France is shaping up to be a must-watch match for football fans around the world. With both teams possessing quality players and tactical nous, it is sure to be a thrilling contest that could go either way. Make sure to tune in on July 9th to see who will come out on top and secure a spot in the final.
