Predictions, Odds & Injury News for England vs Slovakia Round of 16 Match on June 30th

Nov 25, 2022; Al Khor, Qatar; England goalkeeper Jordan Pickford (1) reacts after a play against the United States of America during the first half of a group stage match during the 2022 World Cup at Al Bayt Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Yukihito Taguchi-USA TODAY Sports

• An England side struggling to score faces Slovakia in the round of 16 at Euro 2024
• England is 5-1-0 all-time against Slovakia but the teams haven’t met in nearly seven years
• See the England vs Slovakia predictions, odds, injury news, and projected lineups for Sunday, June 30

Despite an uninspiring group-stage performance in which they drew twice while scoring only two goals, England topped Group C and wound-up with a fairly favorable round of 16 matchup against Slovakia, who finished third in a tight Group E where all four teams ended up on four points.

England and Slovakia are scheduled to meet at Arena AufSchalke in Gelsenkirchen, Germany, at 3:00 pm ET on Sunday, June 30, and the Three Lions are massive favorites to advance in the England vs Slovakia odds.

England vs Slovakia Odds

The three-way moneyline lists England as -250 favorites to win in regular time (71.43% implied win probability) with the draw at +330 (23.26%) and a Slovakia victory at a long +900 (10%).

Odds as of June 28 at DraftKings. See the full list of DraftKings states where bettors can wager on Euro 2024. 

Thanks to a favorable path to the final – which avoids France, Spain, Germany, Belgium, and Portugal – England enters the round of 16 as +350 favorites to win the title in the Euro 2024 odds. If England manages to get past Slovakia, they’ll face the winner of Switzerland vs Belgium. If they progress to the semifinals, they would meet either Austria, Netherlands, Romania, or Turkey.

Slovakia has the third-longest odds of the 16 remaining teams at +17000, only ahead of Georgia (+21000) and Slovenia (+28000).

England: Last 10 Matches

England’s mediocre group-stage performance was in line with its recent results prior to the tournament. They went just 1-2-2 in five matches before the Euros, the lone win coming against Bosnia & Herzegovina on home soil. Only twice in the last eight games has England managed to score more than one goal, a somewhat surprising turn for a team that scored 22 goals in eight Euro qualifiers.

England’s only goals of the group stage were scored by Jude Bellingham, who had the winner in a 1-0 victory over Serbia, and Harry Kane, who opened the scoring against Denmark before a Morten Hjulmand equalizer.

England controlled at least 53% of possession in all three group-stage games, and had an absurd 72% in the 0-0 draw with Slovenia, but their chance-creation was borderline pitiful, largely due to anemic performances from Declan Rice, Conor Callagher, and Trent Alexander-Arnold in midfield.

England finished the group stage with just 2.19 xGF in 270 minutes (plus stoppage time), per Flashscore. The good news is that their suffocating defense allowed just 1.18 in three low-event matches.

Slovakia: Last 10 Matches

Aside from Georgia’s 2-0 win over Portugal as +800 underdogs,  Slovakia produced the biggest upset of the group stage when they blanked Belgium 1-0 as +550 ‘dogs. They couldn’t parlay that success into any more victories, though, letting a 1-0 lead slip away in a 2-1 loss to Ukraine before again giving up an early lead in a 1-1 draw with Romania. Slovakia had to settle for third in the four-way tie that was Group E thanks to goal differential.

Slovakia’s quality play was portended by a strong run-up to the Euros, when they finished runner-up to Portugal in Group J during qualifying (7-1-2, +9 goal difference).

Francesco Calzona’s team finished the group stage with an uninspiring Expected Goals percentage: they generated 3.2 Expected Goals, while conceding 4.42 xG. However, they were slightly in the positive against both Romania and the Ukraine, and massively in the negative against Belgium (1.97 to 0.58) while protecting a lead from the seventh minute on.

England/Slovakia Injury News

Good news for England on the injury front as left back Luke Shaw should be fit enough to – if not start – at least come off the bench to spell Kieran Trippier, who’s been starting out of position in his place in the first three games of the tournament.

Unfortunately for the Three Lions, forward Phil Foden has flown home for the birth of his child and it’s unlikely he’ll return in time to start against Slovakia. His place will be taken by either Cole Palmer or Anthony Gordon.

On the Slovakia side, start left back David Hancko had to leave the Ukraine game with a groin injury in the second half. He was back in the lineup against Romania and played the full 90, though did look a little slower than usual. There is no suggestion the Feyenoord defender will miss the round of 16, nor did Slovakia incur any suspensions in their 1-1 draw with Romania.

England vs Slovakia Prediction

The three-way moneyline skews too heavily to England. No one is denying that Jude Bellingham, Harry Kane, and Bukayo Saka comprise a truly elite front line, but I expect England’s midfield to struggle once again. The heart of Slovakia’s team is the trio of Stanislav Lobotka, Ondrej Duda, and Juraj Kucka in the middle of the pitch, and they are going to give fits to whatever combination of Rice/Gallagher/Alexander-Arnold/Mainoo that Gareth Southgate rolls with.

ENG vs SVK picks:

• Slovakia +0.5 (+210) at FanDuel
• Under 2.5 (-138) at bet365

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