Jun 14, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; New York Yankees shortstop Anthony Volpe (11) steals third base against Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers (11) during the fifth inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
- The New York Yankees finish their series with the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on Sunday Night Baseball
- After splitting the first two games, the Yankees are favored in the series finale
- Get the Yankees vs Red Sox predictions, odds, and starting pitcher stats for June 16
The MLB-leading New York Yankees (50-23, 28-13 away) look to build on their lead atop the AL East on Sunday Night Baseball when they visit the Boston Red Sox (36-35, 17-20 home) at Fenway Park in the finale of a three-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 pm ET on ESPN. The pitching matchup sees Marcus Stroman on the mound for the Yankees opposite Kutter Crawford for the Red Sox.
After splitting the first two games of the series (8-1 Yankees win on Friday followed by an 8-4 Red Sox win on Saturday), New York is listed as a slight -135 favorite to take the rubber match of the three-game set.
Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction (Sunday, June 16)
- Yankees moneyline (-135)
- First 5 innings under 3.5 runs (+165)
Crawford had a phenomenal start to the season for the Red Sox, posting a 2.17 ERA through his first ten starts of the year. But the 28-year-old righty has been on a marked decline since. He’s allowed 17 earned runs over his last four starts with a 1.29 WHIP and five home runs allowed in that span. His ERA has increased to 3.09, while his xERA has gone even higher (3.82).
The third-year big-leaguer still has excellent numbers against the Yankees, though. In 46 total at-bats, the New York hitters are slashing just .130/.216/.217 with one home run (Aaron Judge) and one double (Gleyber Torres). In two starts against the Pinstripes last year, he allowed just two runs over 10.1 innings of work.
But Stroman also has tremendous stats against the lineup he’ll be facing today. In 45 ABs, the Boston hitters have a .133 average and miniscule .382 OPS against the 33-year-old righty with no home runs and two doubles (Bobby Dalbec, Tyler O’Neill). Stroman made just one start against the Red Sox last season, pitching a six-inning gem, allowing one run on three hits and a walk. His most-recent start this season was a 5.2-inning shutout against the Royals, though he did allow four hits and three walks.
Stroman’s ERA for the season is an excellent 2.82, but there is a massive discrepancy in his actual ERA and his xERA (4.47). Never known as a strikeout pitcher, his K% has dropped to 17.4%, his lowest mark since 2018 and the second-lowest of his career.
But given the way Stroman has performed against this particular set of hitters over his career, I expect another effective performance from the Yankee starter on Sunday. The same goes for Crawford, which is why I’m backing a low first-half under at significant plus-money.
If this turns into a battle of bullpens, the Pinstripes will have a significant edge. New York’s relievers are third in the MLB in ERA (3.56) while Boston’s are down in 21st with an inflated 4.39 ERA. The Red Sox’s xFIP is slightly better (16th at 4.39) but that still pales in comparison to the Yankees’ (fourth at 4.02).
Marcus Stroman vs Kutter Crawford
| 6-2 | Record | 2-6 |
| 2.82 | ERA | 3.09 |
| 4.47 | xERA | 3.82 |
| 1.24 | WHIP | 1.18 |
| 17.4% | K% | 23.4% |
Yankees vs Red Sox Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees (Stroman) | -135 | -1.5 (+114) | O 9 (-108) |
| Red Sox (Crawford) | +114 | +1.5 (-135) | U 9 (-112) |
There is some variation in the Yankees vs Red Sox odds across sportsbooks. The best price on a New York win is -135 at DraftKings (which is where the odds in the table are from) while the best price on a Boston victory is +116 at FanDuel. Bettors looking to wager on the under can get it at -110 at FanDuel while anyone backing the over should take the -105 number available at BetMGM.
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.
The highly anticipated Sunday Night Baseball game between the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox on June 16th is sure to be a thrilling matchup between two fierce rivals. With both teams vying for the top spot in the American League East, this game is crucial for both sides as they look to gain an edge in the division race.
The starting pitchers for this game are expected to be Masahiro Tanaka for the Yankees and Chris Sale for the Red Sox. Tanaka has been solid for the Yankees this season, boasting a 3.21 ERA and a 3-5 record. Sale, on the other hand, has struggled at times this season with a 4.24 ERA and a 2-7 record. However, Sale is a proven ace and has the ability to dominate any lineup on any given night.
In terms of predictions, the odds are likely to favor the Yankees in this matchup. They currently sit atop the AL East standings and have been playing some of their best baseball of the season. The Red Sox, on the other hand, have been inconsistent and have struggled to find their groove.
That being said, anything can happen in a rivalry game like this one. The Red Sox have a potent lineup that can explode at any moment, and Sale has the ability to shut down even the best offenses in the league. The Yankees will need to be on their A-game if they want to come out on top in this matchup.
Overall, this Sunday Night Baseball game between the Yankees and Red Sox is shaping up to be a must-watch event for baseball fans. With two talented teams and two elite starting pitchers on the mound, this game has all the makings of a classic showdown between two bitter rivals. Be sure to tune in on June 16th to see who comes out on top in this epic battle for AL East supremacy.
