- Alex Cobb and the Guardians visit Carlos Rodón and the Yankees in Game 1 of the ALCS on Monday night
- NYY went 4-2 against CLE in the regular season and is a big home favorite in Game 1
- Below, see the Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees Game 1 predictions, best odds, and props to target
The two best teams in the American League during the regular season will meet in the 2024 ALCS as the New York Yankees (94-68, 44-37 home) get set to host the Cleveland Guardians (92-69, 42-39 away) in Game 1 of the best-of-seven series on Monday night (7:38 pm ET) at Yankee Stadium.
Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees Game 1 Predictions
- Guardians +1.5 (-155) at ESPN Bet
- Under 7.5 (-115) at BetMGM
Sascha Paruk’s 2024 MLB playoff betting record: 19-17 (+3.18 units)
With Alex Cobb on the mound for Cleveland, Guardians fans have ample reason for concern. Cobb missed almost the entirety of the regular season due to injury and was tagged for two runs on three hits and a walk in just 3.0 innings against the Tigers in his lone postseason start. But his peripherals suggest he’s going to get better results on Monday against the Pinstripes. He had a FIP of 2.83 in that start against the Tigers and his velo was just fine.
Cobb’s only other playoff experience game over a decade ago with the Rays (2013) when he allowed just two earned runs over 11.2 innings (1.57 ERA) with ten Ks.
But the main reason I’m backing the Guardians runline along with the under is the Cleveland bullpen. The Guardians led the majors in bullpen ERA (2.57) and FIP (3.30), and though their relievers have looked moderately fallible so far in the postseason, I expect that immensely talented group to keep the Yankee bats in check in Game 1.
I was tempted to bet the Cleveland moneyline at plus-money (as long as +140) but Rodón has a solid history against the few Guardian batters who have faced him: five hitters have combined for a .210 average and .612 OPS against Rodón, which is mostly comprised of Jose Ramirez’s 10-for-43 performance (.233 avg) with zero home runs.
And the Yankee bullpen is solid in its own right. Not only did the group finish sixth in the majors with a 3.62 ERA and 11th with a 3.96 FIP, it is also riding an impressive shutout streak entering the ALCS. The New York relievers didn’t allow a single earned run in 16.0 IP against the Royals in the ALDS.
CLE vs NYY Game 1 Starting Pitchers: Cobb vs Rodón
| Alex Cobb | vs | Carlos Rodón |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | Record | 16-9 |
| 2.76 | ERA | 3.96 |
| 4.87 | xERA | 4.14 |
| 1.04 | WHIP | 1.22 |
| 16.1% | K% | 26.5% |
Best Guardians vs Yankees Game 1 Odds
| Teams | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians | +140 at ESPN Bet |
+1.5 (-155) at bet365 | O 7.5 (-100) at ESPN Bet |
| New York Yankees | -160 at BetMGM | -1.5 (+135) at Caesars | U 8.0 (-110) at DraftKings |
The Guardians vs Yankees Game 1 odds show a little variety from book to book. The best Guardians moneyline ranges from +135 to +140, with ESPN Bet, Caesars, and bet365 having the longest odds currently. The best Yankees moneyline is at BetMGM, where they are -160 to win Game 1 straight-up.
The longest odds on the NYY runline of -1.5 is +135 at both Caesars and BetMGM, while ESPN Bet and bet365 have the best odds on the CLE runline of +1.5 at -155.
The run total is sitting at 7.5 across the board in Monday’s MLB odds. Most books, including bet365, DraftKings, and ESPN Bet, list over 7.5 at even money. The best price on under 7.5 is -115 at BetMGM.
The Yankees are currently the second-favorite to the Dodgers in the World Series odds at +185. Cleveland is a +550 longshot to win its first championship since 1948.
The American League Division Series kicks off on October 14th with Game 1 between the Cleveland Guardians and the New York Yankees. Both teams are coming off strong regular seasons and are looking to make a statement in the postseason.
The Guardians finished the regular season with a record of 86-76, securing a wild card spot in the playoffs. Led by a strong pitching staff and a balanced lineup, the Guardians have the tools to compete with the best teams in the league. Their offense is led by Jose Ramirez, who had a stellar season with 36 home runs and 103 RBIs. On the mound, Shane Bieber will likely get the start for Game 1, coming off a solid season with a 3.17 ERA and 243 strikeouts.
On the other side, the Yankees finished the regular season with a record of 92-70, earning a spot as the top wild card team in the American League. The Yankees are known for their powerful lineup, led by sluggers Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. The pitching staff is anchored by Gerrit Cole, who had a strong season with a 3.23 ERA and 243 strikeouts.
In terms of predictions, this matchup is expected to be a close one. Both teams have strong pitching staffs and potent offenses, making it difficult to predict a clear winner. However, the Yankees may have a slight edge with their home-field advantage and their experience in postseason play.
As for the odds, the Yankees are currently favored to win Game 1 with odds of -150, while the Guardians are underdogs with odds of +130. This indicates that the betting public believes the Yankees have a better chance of coming out on top in this matchup.
In terms of picks, it’s always tough to predict playoff baseball, but I would lean towards the Yankees in Game 1. With their potent lineup and home-field advantage, they have a good chance of taking an early lead in the series. However, the Guardians are a resilient team and could easily pull off an upset.
Overall, Game 1 between the Guardians and Yankees is shaping up to be an exciting matchup between two talented teams. Fans can expect a competitive game with plenty of fireworks on both sides. Stay tuned for what promises to be an intense and thrilling series between these two playoff contenders.
