November 13, 2024

Sport and Betting News

Predictions, Odds, and Longshots for the 2024 NASCAR Championship at Phoenix

13 mins
  • The 2024 NASCAR Championship ends the season this Sunday at Phoenix Raceway
  • Joey Logano, Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney, and William Byron have a chance to win it all. Who will triumph at Phoenix?
  • Below, see our 2024 NASCAR Championship predictions, odds and longshot NASCAR picks

The NASCAR Cup Series playoffs determine its champion this Sunday, November 10th with the NASCAR Cup Series Championship at Phoenix Raceway. The green flag drops at 3 PM ET with live coverage on NBC Network.

The 1-mile track has been kind of a controversial end to the playoffs. Last November, Ross Chastain spoiled the party by winning the race as Ryan Blaney held on to win the championship. The last seven races in Phoenix have resulted in no overtime. However, there were 18 lead changes among eight drivers which was a surprise.

The oddsmakers are expecting at least three of the four championship four to contend on Sunday afternoon:

2024 NASCAR Championship Odds

Driver Odds
Ryan Blaney +175
William Byron +400
Joey Logano +450
Christopher Bell +750
Tyler Reddick +900
Kyle Larson +900
Martin Truex Jr. +1400
Denny Hamlin +1500
Chase Elliott +2500
Ross Chastain +2500

At +175 odds (7/4), the implied probability for favorite Ryan Blaney is 36.36%. William Byron comes in at 20%, with Joey Logano lurking at 18.18%.

Odds as of Nov. 9 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Register with the DraftKings promo code to wager on the NASCAR Cup Series Championship. 

2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Predictions

The spotlight aims on the last two champions here. Last week was a mild surprise as Ryan Blaney cemented his way into the championship with a clutch win at Martinsville. Blaney is experienced with holding off the Hendrick Motorsports Chevy cars. He fended off Kyle Larson and William Byron last year. The good news this year is he only has to worry about Byron. However, guess who else is waiting in the weeds? That would be 2022 champion, Joey Logano.

Part of why Joey Logano is a good third choice is obvious. The No. 22 driver got a free pass into the Round Of 8 and then won on fuel conservation to get into the Championship Four. No matter what one believes about the how, the bottom line is Logano is here now and is a threat to win Phoenix and win another championship.

This race, gets deadpanned, for being dull. Despite the 18 lead changes, Ross Chastain led 157 of the 312 laps en route to the win last year. The real race was watching Blaney hold off Kyle Larson. Could that happen again? It seems less likely as the Cup champion tends to win the race (see Chase Elliott, Larson, and Logano previously).

Watch out for practice and qualifying differences, that could influence betting shifts a little. It is hard to stray too far away from Blaney. He is quick on this track and could have won the race outright last year honestly.

A Ford weekend sweep remains possible at press time. Expect Blaney and Logano to battle Larson and Byron for the win and championship. Blaney is the safe but best bet here.

  • Best Bet to Win: Ryan Blaney (+200 at Caesars)
  • Top 3 Finish: Kyle Larson (+260 at DraftKings)

NASCAR Cup Series Championship Longshots

If you are one who likes to take a risk on some longer shots this weekend, there is the sentimental choice of Martin Truex Jr. The No. 19 Toyota races in at +1500 on several sites. Chase Elliott and Ross Chastain have also won here before and they are at +2500 on several sites, including DraftKings and Caesars.

With several quality choices outside the Championship Four, options seem to be increasing. One potential major surprise might be Ty Gibbs. Gibbs has not won a race at the top level but did finish second in Phoenix this March. If he can get close, anything is possible.

Does Toyota fade late? That has been the issue in some Fall races and it was seen last week at Martinsville. Conditions early seem to help drivers like Truex Jr. and Gibbs. The No. 54 driver did win the Xfinity series not too long ago on this very track.

Still, this is one “out there” longshot at +5500.

If the No. 54 Toyota can stay on the track, this could be fun. He’s my NASCAR Cup Series Championship sleeper at 55/1 odds.

NASCAR Longshot Picks:

  • Martin Truex Jr. (+1500)
  • Kyle Busch (+5500)

The 2024 NASCAR Championship at Phoenix is shaping up to be one of the most exciting races in recent memory. With a talented field of drivers and teams vying for the title, fans can expect plenty of drama and excitement on the track.

As we look ahead to the championship race, it’s important to consider the predictions, odds, and longshots for the event. Let’s take a closer look at some of the top contenders and dark horses for the 2024 NASCAR Championship at Phoenix.

Predictions:

One of the top contenders for the championship is likely to be reigning champion Kyle Larson. Larson has been dominant on the track in recent years and has shown no signs of slowing down. With his skill behind the wheel and a strong team supporting him, Larson is a strong favorite to repeat as champion in 2024.

Another driver to watch is Chase Elliott. Elliott has been a consistent performer in recent seasons and has shown that he has what it takes to compete at the highest level. With his talent and experience, Elliott could be a serious threat for the championship at Phoenix.

Odds:

According to oddsmakers, Kyle Larson is currently the favorite to win the 2024 NASCAR Championship at Phoenix. Larson’s odds are likely to be quite low, reflecting his status as one of the top drivers in the sport.

Other drivers with favorable odds include Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, and Martin Truex Jr. These drivers have all shown that they have what it takes to compete for a championship and could be worth a bet for fans looking to make some money on the race.

Longshots:

While the favorites are always worth keeping an eye on, it’s also important to consider some of the longshots who could surprise at Phoenix. One driver to watch is Bubba Wallace. Wallace has shown flashes of brilliance in recent seasons and could be a dark horse for the championship in 2024.

Another longshot to consider is Tyler Reddick. Reddick has shown that he has the talent to compete with the best drivers in NASCAR and could be a surprise contender at Phoenix.

In conclusion, the 2024 NASCAR Championship at Phoenix is shaping up to be an exciting event with plenty of talented drivers vying for the title. While favorites like Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott are likely to be strong contenders, fans should also keep an eye on longshots like Bubba Wallace and Tyler Reddick who could surprise on race day. With so much talent on the track, anything can happen at Phoenix in 2024.

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