Predictions for the Public’s Selections in Each First Round March Madness Game

• The public has now had roughly 72 hours to get money down on the March Madness first-round games
• SBD is tracking the March Madness public-betting splits for all games in the 2025 NCAA Tournament
• Below, see the public’s favorite picks for all March Madness first-round games on March 20-21

The odds for the first round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament have been out since Sunday. The betting public has had ample opportunity to bet the games and move the lines, and billions of dollars have already poured in across North America.

The table below sets out the public’s favorite pick (i.e. the side of the spread, moneyline, or game total that is getting the highest percentage of handle) for every game in the first round of March Madness.

Public’s Picks for All First-Round March Madness Games

Handle percentages from SBD’s March Madness public betting splits page at 10:00 am ET, March 19. Download the top March Madness betting apps ahead of the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

The Public Is Hammering Overs in NCAA Tournament

What stands out the most to me, personally, about the numbers above is just how many overs have the largest split in their respective matchups. The over is currently the public’s favorite bet in nine of the 30 first-round matchups on the board. (Two round of 64 matchups are still TBD; tonight’s First Four games will cement the 64-team field.)

One factor that could be motivating this is the discrepancies between the KenPom score projections (and Haslam and Torvik projections) and the listed totals. That is to say, the listed totals tend to be lower, just as the are for NBA playoffs compared to the regular season.

Of the nine games where the under is the public’s favorite bet, eight have a total that is lower than the KenPom score projection. They are listed below, from largest to smallest difference. The KenPom projections is in parentheses:

• Drake vs Missouri: Over 132.5 (vs 136 at KenPom)
• UNCW vs Texas Tech: Over 143.5 (vs 147)
• Creighton vs Louisville: 144.5 (vs 147.5)
• McNeese vs Clemson: Over 133.5 (vs 136)
• Vanderbilt vs Saint Mary’s: Over 135.5 (138)
• Yale vs Texas A&M: Over 139.5 (vs 142)
• Baylor vs Miss. State: Over 144.5 (vs 147)
• VCU vs BYU: Over 146.5 (vs 147)
• Alabama St vs Auburn: Over 150.5 (vs 150)

The Public Sees Value on Some Big Underdogs

Another fairly surprising trend to me, given how much the public tends to hammer favorites, is how many massive longshots are getting the vast majority of ATS handle. Six underdogs of +750 or longer are the public’s favorite bet in their respective games.

Recent editions of the NCAA Tournament have certainly made that approach pay off for certain bettors. Last year, #14 Oakland paid out as a +575 underdog after beating #3 Kentucky (80-76). The year prior, #15 Princeton beat #2 Arizona as a +700 underdog. And in 2022, #15 St Peter’s made a run all the way to Elite Eight after beating #2 Kentucky as a +1400 bet.

Arkansas (+4.5) Is the Public’s Top Pick in First Round

The largest split on the entire board, currently, is #10 Arkansas to cover as 4.5-point underdogs against #7 Kansas. The Razorbacks are getting 94% of ATS handle to cover against a Jayhawk team that’s lost five of its last nine games straight-up.

Kansas was certainly a disappointment to many this season. In the analytics, they started the year rated seventh at KenPom, but they enter the NCAA Tournament rated 21st. That’s still 19 spots ahead of #40 Arkansas, and the KenPom projection is a four-point KU victory (73-69).

Be sure to check out SBD’s other March Madness content::

March Madness is one of the most exciting times of the year for college basketball fans. With the tournament just around the corner, everyone is eagerly anticipating the release of the bracket and making their predictions for each first round game.

One of the most anticipated matchups in the first round is between the 1 seed and the 16 seed. Historically, the 16 seed has never beaten a 1 seed in the men’s tournament, but there have been some close calls in recent years. However, it is still highly unlikely that we will see a 16 seed upset a 1 seed this year.

Another popular matchup to watch in the first round is between the 8 seed and the 9 seed. These games are often very evenly matched, making them difficult to predict. Fans will have to pay close attention to the teams’ records, strength of schedule, and key players to make an informed decision on who will come out on top.

Upsets are also a common occurrence in the first round of March Madness. Every year, there are a few lower-seeded teams that manage to pull off a surprise victory over a higher-seeded team. These upsets can completely change the trajectory of the tournament and make for some exciting games to watch.

Overall, predicting the outcomes of each first round game in March Madness is no easy task. Fans will have to carefully analyze each matchup and consider factors such as team statistics, player performance, and coaching strategies. While some games may seem like sure bets, March Madness is known for its unpredictability, so anything can happen once the teams hit the court.