Predictions for College Football Against the Spread in Round 1 of the CFP Games

• Check out our College Football Playoff picks against the spread for Round 1 campus games
• Cold weather is expected to be a major factor in multiple matchups
• Below, see expert CFP spread picks for all four Round 1 playoff matchups

The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff kicks off with four exciting Round 1 matchups at campus sites. With freezing temperatures expected at multiple venues, we’re seeing some interesting line movement that creates betting value.

My college football playoff picks against the spread focus on three underdogs getting too many points in cold weather conditions, plus one favorite in a great situational spot. Here are my CFP Round 1 against spread picks.

CFP Round 1 ATS Picks

All odds current as of December 19th at ESPN Bet. Visit our recommended college football betting sites for more playoff odds and predictions.

Here is my analysis and reasoning for each CFP Round 1 spread pick.

Indiana vs Notre Dame Odds

Pick #1: Indiana +7.5 (at Notre Dame)

Let’s be real – the brutal weather forecast in South Bend changes everything here. With temps dropping into the low 20s and potential lake-effect snow, these conditions typically favor underdogs and could neutralize Notre Dame’s home field edge.

The Hoosiers bring a nasty rushing defense to South Bend, allowing just 76.2 YPG and 2.6 yards per carry. That’s going to be a problem for Notre Dame’s ground game. Meanwhile, IU edge rusher Mikhail Kamara has been terrorizing quarterbacks all year with 10 sacks.

Terrific play after terrific play. @Mikail_kamara6 is the Walter Camp National Defensive Player of the Week & the Bednarik Award National Defensive Player of the Week! pic.twitter.com/arYoUtsKZN

— Indiana Football (@IndianaFootball) November 5, 2024

Canadian QB Kurtis Rourke gives Indiana another edge in the cold weather. He’s been lights out this season, completing 70.4% of his passes for 2,827 yards with 27 TDs and only 4 picks. The kid showed at Ohio State that he won’t shrink from the big moment.

The sharps seem to agree – this spread has dropped from -9.5 to -7.5. SP+ gives Notre Dame just a 62% chance to win and projects a close 28-24 game. I love the points here.

• Pick: Indiana +7.5 (-110)

SMU vs Penn State Odds

Pick #2: Penn State -8.5 (vs SMU)

This is my only favorite I’m backing in my Round 1 CFP picks, but there’s good reason. Both the weather and matchup heavily favor Penn State here. Furthermore, Drew Allar has been money at Beaver Stadium, completing 69.1% of his passes with 8 TDs against just 2 INTs.

The Nittany Lions’ dynamic duo of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen should feast against an SMU defense ranking 73rd in rushing success rate. Not to mention, the Mustangs haven’t seen anything close to this atmosphere all year in Dallas.

Penn State running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen practicing for a stout SMU defensive line.

The duo recorded 10.5 and 8.9 yards per carry against Oregon pic.twitter.com/cvj9qajWT3

— Joel Haas (@Joel_Haas1) December 18, 2024

SMU’s defense also has some glaring holes Penn State can exploit. They’ve been torched by tight ends all year (627 yards allowed, 129th in FBS), and PSU has Mackey Award winner Tyler Warren ready to go. The Mustangs also rank 118th defending routes between the hashes – right where Allar loves to throw.

The brutal weather forecast plus SMU’s southern roots make this line feel a couple points light. Lay the points with Penn State.

• Pick: Penn State -8.5 (-110)

Clemson vs Texas Odds

Pick #3: Clemson +14.5 (at Texas)

Everyone’s sleeping on Cade Klubnik. The kid has thrown for 3,303 yards with 33 TDs and just 5 INTs this year. His 50-yard TD run against Pitt and four-score explosion in the ACC Championship show he’s built for big moments.

Dabo knows how to win in December – his Tigers have taken 18 of their last 19 December games. He’s also 16-9 against SEC schools. Plus, this is a homecoming for Klubnik, who balled out at Westlake High in Austin.

The last time Quinn Ewers and Cade Klubnik faced off… it was in the Texas HS State Championship 👀

Cade Klubnik’s team came out on top.

Stats:

Quinn Ewers:

• 23/39
• 351 Yards
• 3 TDs
• 2 INTs, 1 fumble

Cade Klubnik:

• 18/20
• 220 Pass Yds
• 97 Rush Yds
• 1 TD pic.twitter.com/bQToQJfqPi

— College Football Report (@CFBRep) December 8, 2024

Texas has some cracks showing lately. Specifically, Quinn Ewers looked shaky against Georgia, managing just one TD with two picks. As a result, the Longhorns might be a bit overvalued as two-touchdown favorites.

Here’s the kicker – Klubnik leads the nation with 21 TD passes against zone coverage, while Texas runs zone on 78% of snaps. Clemson also leads FBS with a +115 first-quarter scoring margin. They’ll start fast and keep this tight.

• Pick: Clemson +14.5 (-110)

Tennessee vs Ohio State Odds

Pick #4: Tennessee +7.5 (at Ohio State)

Dylan Sampson has been a beast for the Vols, racking up 1,485 yards and a school-record 22 rushing TDs. After watching Michigan gash Ohio State on the ground, Sampson should find plenty of running room.

Tennessee’s defense is no joke, either. Indeed, they’re 8th nationally against the run (99.6 YPG) with a fierce front that should give Ohio State’s reshuffled O-line fits after their struggles against Michigan.

Let’s talk about the elephant in the room – Ohio State’s headspace after their fourth straight loss to Michigan and that ugly post-game brawl. The mounting pressure on Ryan Day could impact their preparation and in-game decisions.

The Vols are 7-5 ATS this year and have won four of their last five against Big Ten teams. With the Buckeyes potentially reeling and Tennessee’s ground game rolling, taking the points is the play.

• Pick: Tennessee +7.5 (-110)

Brady’s 2024 CFB ATS Picks Record: 28-19 (Last Week: 1-1)

As college football fans eagerly anticipate the start of the College Football Playoff (CFP) games, many are already making predictions on which teams will come out on top against the spread in round 1. With four powerhouse teams set to face off in the semifinals, there is sure to be plenty of excitement and drama on the field.

In the first matchup, the Alabama Crimson Tide will take on the Cincinnati Bearcats. Alabama, led by star quarterback Bryce Young, has been dominant all season and is favored to win by a significant margin. However, Cincinnati has proven themselves as a formidable opponent, with a strong defense and a talented offense led by quarterback Desmond Ridder. This game is expected to be a close one, with many experts predicting that Cincinnati will cover the spread.

In the second semifinal game, the Georgia Bulldogs will face off against the Michigan Wolverines. Georgia has been one of the top teams in the country all season, boasting a dominant defense and a potent offense led by quarterback Stetson Bennett. Michigan, on the other hand, has been a surprise contender this year, with a strong running game and a solid defense. While Georgia is favored to win, many believe that Michigan has what it takes to cover the spread and potentially pull off an upset.

Overall, the CFP games are shaping up to be highly competitive and unpredictable, with each team bringing their own strengths and weaknesses to the table. As fans gear up for these highly anticipated matchups, it will be interesting to see which teams come out on top against the spread in round 1 of the CFP games. Stay tuned for all the action and excitement as these powerhouse teams battle it out for a chance to compete in the national championship game.