Predictions and Player Props for the Ole Miss vs Iowa State Game

• The Iowa State Cyclones are 3.5-point favorites over the Ole Miss Rebels in the South Region 3-vs-6 matchup
• Iowa State has shot 39% from three and has been a top-three defense since early February
• See my Ole Miss vs Iowa State predictions and player props for March Madness, below

One of the most popular teams to bet against in the first round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament was No. 6 Ole Miss (23-11) in the South Region. The Rebels foiled us in the opening round, but if at first you don’t succeed, dust yourself and try again. I’m going right back to the well on Sunday, backing Iowa State (25-9) as favorites in the college basketball odds over Ole Miss. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:45pm ET at the Fiserv Forum, in Milwaukee, WI, with TruTV providing the broadcast coverage.

Ole Miss vs Iowa State Odds

The Cyclones are laying 5.5 points and -230 on the moneyline. The Rebels come back as +190 underdogs, while the total sits at 145.5. Per the college basketball public betting trends, Ole Miss hasn’t won and covered in back-to-back games since mid-January.

Odds as of March 23 at DraftKings. See the full list of DraftKings legal states.

Ole Miss vs Iowa State Predictions

• Iowa State (-5.5) at DraftKings

My prediction is that Iowa State punches its ticket to the Sweet 16 in the March Madness bracket. The Cyclones have played tenacious defense all season, and that’s been amplified since early February. Over the last six weeks, they rank third in defensive efficiency. They completely neutralized Lipscomb in the opening round, holding them to a season-low 55 points. They have size in the middle, and the return of Tamin Lipsey significantly improves their defense at the guard position. Lipsey averages a team-high 2 steals per game, while Iowa State led the Big 12 in that category.

On offense, the loss of Keshon Gilbert hurts, but the emergence of Milan Momcilovic cannot be overstated. Momcilovic had his first 20-point game since November in the 1st Round, after dealing with a hand injury in January. He’s the team’s best outside threat, and is fresh off splashing four treys. Since he returned from injury, the Cyclones have been lights out from three. They’re knocking down 41% of their looks from beyond the arc over that stretch, and shot 58% in their opening game.

Ole Miss meanwhile, nearly blew a 22-point lead in their 1st Round win over 11-seed North Carolina. The Rebels struggled down the stretch in a loaded SEC, dropping five of eight. Chris Beard’s team is balanced, but doesn’t do anything spectacular. They’re middle of the road in most offensive categories, and I’m betting that won’t translate into a ton of success against this strong Cyclones defense.

At the Rebels end of the floor, Iowa State has the advantage. Ole Miss ranks outside the top-150 in opponent effective field goal percentage. Enemy shooters are making 52% of their looks inside the arc, and are getting to the free throw line 22 times per game. The Cyclones are an excellent free throw shooting team, and get to the line at the Big 12’s second highest rate. The Rebels are also mediocre defending the perimeter, which sets up well for Momcilovic.

If not for injuries, I think this Iowa State team would be a legit contender in the Final Four odds. A win today sets up a likely Sweet Sixteen matchup with Michigan State, and a potential Elite Eight contest with Auburn. Without Gilbert, I don’t they can outlast both those top programs, but Ole Miss is the not in same class as those teams.

Ole Miss vs Iowa State Props

College basketball props from DraftKings and FanDuel on March 23.

• Milan Momcilovic Over 13.5 Points (-125) at DraftKings

Moving to the player props market, where I’m betting over 13.5 points for Momcilovic. He’s cleared this number in consecutive games, and in four of his last six overall. We discussed why this isn’t an imposing matchup for the Cyclones shooters, and without Gilbert, we can expect Momcilovic’s usage rate to spike. He’s put up double-digit shot attempts in seven of his last eight outings. His three-point attempts are also on the rise, with at least six in three straight.

Momcilovic’s efficiency as of late has also been sky high. He’s shot 50% or better in three straight starts, and splashed 67% of his looks in the opening round.

The highly anticipated matchup between the Ole Miss Rebels and the Iowa State Cyclones is set to take place this weekend, and fans are buzzing with excitement. Both teams have had strong starts to the season, making this game a must-watch for college football enthusiasts.

When it comes to predictions for this game, it’s shaping up to be a close one. Both teams have shown their offensive prowess in the early part of the season, with Ole Miss averaging over 40 points per game and Iowa State not far behind at around 35 points per game. This suggests that we can expect a high-scoring affair on Saturday.

One player to keep an eye on for Ole Miss is quarterback Matt Corral. The junior signal-caller has been lighting up the stat sheet this season, throwing for over 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns in just three games. Corral has shown great poise in the pocket and has the ability to make plays with both his arm and his legs. Look for him to continue his impressive play against a tough Iowa State defense.

On the other side of the ball, Iowa State will be relying on quarterback Brock Purdy to lead their offense. Purdy has been a steady presence for the Cyclones, throwing for over 800 yards and six touchdowns so far this season. He will need to be at his best against a talented Ole Miss defense that has shown the ability to create turnovers and get after the quarterback.

In terms of player props, there are a few options that stand out for this game. One prop to consider is the over/under on total points scored, which is currently set at around 65 points. Given the high-powered offenses of both teams, taking the over could be a smart bet.

Another prop to keep an eye on is the total passing yards for Matt Corral. With Ole Miss likely to rely heavily on their passing attack, Corral should have plenty of opportunities to rack up yards through the air. Look for him to surpass the 300-yard mark in this game.

Overall, this matchup between Ole Miss and Iowa State has all the makings of a classic college football showdown. With two high-scoring offenses and talented quarterbacks leading the way, fans can expect an exciting and competitive game. Be sure to tune in this weekend to see which team comes out on top in what promises to be a thrilling contest.