Aug 6, 2024; Saint-Denis, FRANCE; Quincy Hall (USA) in the men’s 400m semifinals during the Paris 2024 Olympic Summer Games at Stade de France. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
- The men’s 400 meter final takes place Wednesday at 3:20 pm ET
- Great Britain’s Matthew Hudson-Smith is a slight favorite over Team USA’s Quincy Hall
- See the Paris 2024 men’s 400 meter final odds, picks, and predictions on August 7
The American stranglehold on the men’s 400 meters is a thing of the past. Since winning the event in seven straight Olympics from 1988 to 2008, the US has failed to capture gold or silver in any of the last three. LeShawn Merritt’s bronze in Rio in 2016 is Team USA’s only medal in that span.
But the 2024 edition in Paris could bring an abrupt end to that drought. Quincy Hall, the bronze medalist at the 2023 World Championships, has his sights set on the top of the podium, and oddsmakers have positioned him as the second-favorite behind Great Britain’s Matthew Hudson-Smith, who took silver at Worlds.
Reigning world champion Antonio Watson of Jamaica failed to qualify due to injury.
Men’s 400 Meter Final Odds
| Runner (Country) | Odds to Win |
|---|---|
| Matthew Hudson-Smith (Great Britain) | -145 |
| Quincy Hall (USA) | +110 |
| Kirani James (Grenada) | +1200 |
| Michael Norman (USA) | +1500 |
| Muzala Samukonga (Zambia) | +2500 |
| Jareem Richards (Trinidad & Tobago) | +6000 |
| Christopher Bailey (USA) | +6000 |
| Samuel Ogazi (Nigeria) | +20000 |
Hudson-Smith enters Wednesday’s final as the odds-on -145 betting favorite in the men’s 400 meter final odds. Hall is just behind him at +110. Kirami James of Grenada, the 31-year-old gold medalist from 2012, is the third-favorite, but no other runner is shorter than +1200.
Odds as of Aug. 7 at DraftKings. Claim a DraftKings Sportsbook promo to bet on the Paris 2024 Olympics.
Kirani James Has Medaled in Three Straight Olympics
James stunned the world at London 2012 when he was just 19 years old, ending the USA’s run of seven straight 400-meter gold medals. But he didn’t go onto dominate the sport the way many predicted he would. (Then-world-record holder Michael Johnson believed James had a chance to eventually break his mark.)
James has stayed near the top of the sport for more than a decade, though, and added a silver medal at Rio 2016 and a bronze at Tokyo 2020. He also ran the second-fastest 400m time this year in his semifinal heat in Paris (43.87) yesterday, which was only four-tenths off Hudson-Smith’s world-leading time of 43.74.
Hudson-Smith Routinely Comes Up Short on World Stage
Hudson-Smith is gaining a reputation as a bridesmaid in the 400 meters. The 29-year-old has captured silver and bronze at the last two World Championships, and finished a disappointing eighth in the 400m final in Tokyo (his first and only Olympic experience to date).
He is a two-time European Champion in the 400m (2018 and 2022) but his price of -145 – which carries a 59.18% implied win probability – is awfully short for a veteran who’s yet to win a title on the world stage.
Hudson-Smith had a massive lead coming around the final bend at the 2023 Worlds before Antonio Watson tracked him down. (See clip, above.)
Quincy Hall Coming off Recent PB
Quincy Hall doesn’t have any world-level gold medals in his trophy case but the 26-year-old is peaking around the right time. Just last month, Hall ran a personal-best time of 43.80 seconds at the Monaco Diamond League event.
But it should be noted that none of the Olympic finalists participated in the 400m in Monaco. Hall has little experience besting an elite field, even though his PB is neck-and-neck with the best times in the world this year.
Men’s 400 Meter Final Picks & Predictions
Hudson-Smith should win this event, based purely on pedigree. But again, I have very little interest betting him at such a short price. I’m even less interested in Hall, who’s never won a 400 meter final against a field of this caliber.
I much prefer taking a shot on tried-and-tested Olympian Kirani James, who came extremely close to matching his PB of 43.74 in the semifinals.
For reasons that I can’t quite comprehend, James is listed as the the third-favorite to win at +1200, but has the fourth-longest odds to win a medal at +175 (36.36% implied probability), behind Hudson-Smith (-2000), Hall (-1400), and Michael Norman (+150).
That’s the bet I’m targeting in the men’s 400 meter final.
PICK: Kirani James to win a medal (+175)
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
The Men’s 400 Meter Final at the Paris Olympics 2024 is shaping up to be one of the most anticipated events of the Games. With a field of talented athletes from around the world competing for gold, fans can expect a thrilling race filled with speed, strategy, and drama.
One of the top contenders for the gold medal is American sprinter Noah Lyles. Lyles has been dominant in the 400 meters in recent years, with a personal best time of 43.61 seconds. Known for his explosive speed and smooth running style, Lyles is a strong favorite to take home the gold in Paris.
Another athlete to watch in the Men’s 400 Meter Final is South African sprinter Wayde van Niekerk. Van Niekerk is the current world record holder in the event, with a time of 43.03 seconds. While he has faced some injury setbacks in recent years, van Niekerk is a fierce competitor and will be looking to reclaim his title as the fastest man in the world.
Other contenders in the field include Jamaican sprinter Christopher Taylor, who has been making waves in the 400 meters with his impressive times and strong finishes. Taylor will be looking to make a statement on the Olympic stage and challenge the favorites for the gold medal.
In terms of predictions, it’s difficult to say who will come out on top in the Men’s 400 Meter Final at the Paris Olympics 2024. With so many talented athletes in the field, anything can happen on race day. However, fans can expect a fast-paced and exciting race that will keep them on the edge of their seats until the very end.
Ultimately, the Men’s 400 Meter Final at the Paris Olympics 2024 is sure to be a highlight of the Games, with some of the world’s best sprinters going head-to-head for Olympic glory. Fans can expect a thrilling race filled with record-breaking performances and unforgettable moments that will go down in history.
