- #15 Kentucky travels to Knoxville to take on #4 Tennessee in each team’s regular-season finale
- After Wednesday’s win over South Carolina, Tennessee clinched the #1 seed in next week’s SEC Tournament
- See the Kentucky vs Tennessee odds, analysis, and predictions for March 9
The college basketball regular season ends with an exciting matchup between the #4 team and the #1 team in the SEC. This rivalry game tips off at 4 pm EST in Knoxville, TN. Kentucky is looking for revenge after falling to the Volunteers at home 103-92 on February 3. Tennessee locked up the 1-seed in the SEC Tournament after their 66-59 win over South Carolina on Wednesday. Kentucky is still battling for seeding.
Both of these teams enter this game red-hot. Kentucky has won six of their last seven, while Tennessee has won seven in a row. Each team’s offense has been a huge reason why. In their last four games, Kentucky is averaging 103 points per game. The Volunteers have averaged over 82 points per game during their seven-game winning streak, and they have scored at least 86 points in four of those games. Tennessee currently has the fifth-best March Madness odds at +1200.
Kentucky vs Tennessee Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky Wildcats | +7.5 (-108) | +250 | Over 167 (-108) |
| Tennessee Volunteers | -7.5 (-112) | -310 | Under 167 (-112) |
Odds as of Mar. 9 at DraftKings. Lock in a sign up bonus for DraftKings to get a No Sweat First Bet Up to $1,000 for Kentucky vs Tennessee.
Bettors located in Raleigh can pre-register for North Carolina sports betting at the DraftKings app in North Carolina.
The college basketball odds have Tennessee as 7.5-point home favorites over Kentucky. The line opened at 9.5 but has since moved two points. Points are expected to come in bunches Saturday afternoon as the O/U is 167 points. The total opened at 165, and has been on the move. 195 points were scored when these two teams met a month ago in Lexington.
Tennessee is the heavy favorite to complete their regular season sweep over their rival, Kentucky. At -310 odds, Tennessee has an implied win probability of 75.61%. The Volunteers won by 11 points in their last matchup. This rivalry has been pretty even of late. In the 16 games played since 2018, Tennessee has won nine of them. Kentucky swept Tennessee last season, so the Volunteers would love to return the favor this year.
Kentucky vs Tennessee Betting Splits
The line has already moved from Kentucky +9.5 to +7.5, and if the college basketball public betting trends continue, the line could move more as we near tip-off. 86% of the betting handle is on the Wildcats to cover the spread. Kentucky also has 75% of the bets in this rivalry game.
70% of the bets and 69% of the money are also on the over, and with both offenses playing how they have been of late, it is hard to blame the public.
The public has been all over Kentucky and the over since the odds were released.
Kentucky Betting Trends
The Wildcats started SEC play with a 5-4 record but have flipped a switch. Kentucky went 7-1 over their next eight conference games, giving them a 12-5 SEC record. The Wildcats have gone 17-13 (56.7%) against the spread this season.
Many college basketball teams have struggled on the road this season, but Kentucky has not been one of those teams. They are 6-3 away from Lexington and have also gone 6-3 against the spread as the away team. Kentucky has won two of their last three road games outright. The Wildcats had an impressive 70-59 win at Auburn on February 28 and won a close 91-89 bout at Mississippi State a few games later. Their last loss was a one-point defeat on the road at LSU on February 21.
This success can be attributed to Kentucky’s efficiency. They can score from anywhere on the court, as they rank in the top three in three-point percentage and in the top 30 in two-point percentage. The Wildcats also rarely turn the ball over and do not allow their opponents free possessions.
With their high-flying offense, Kentucky’s defense has become an afterthought. These games typically turn into high-scoring battles. The last four Kentucky games, in fact, have gone over and none of them caused bettors to sweat. Unlike their offense, Kentucky struggles to force turnovers as they are outside the top 200 in turnovers forced. Lucky for them, their offense does just fine without adding additional possessions.
Tennessee Betting Trends
Tennessee has gone through an SEC gauntlet on their way to their regular season crown. They faced Texas A&M, Auburn, Alabama, and South Carolina and defeated all of them by at least seven points. Under Rick Barnes, Tennessee has always had a strong defense, but something is different with this year’s Tennessee team. Dalton Knecht.
Knecht only trails Zach Edey in the Wooden Award odds. The 6’6 senior guard is averaging over 20 points per game for the Vols and is shooting 47.3% from the field. He has been the difference maker this season for Tennessee and has shown an ability to take over games. Knecht has scored at least 24 points in three of his last four, including a huge 39-point performance his last time in Knoxville against Auburn.
Dalton Knecht’s dunk was 😉😉😉 pic.twitter.com/m9s8H6Pieo
— gmannVOLS (@gmannVOLS) October 29, 2023
The Volunteers have put together a 16-13-1 (55.2%) against the spread record this season. They have been much more impressive on their home court, as Tennessee is 10-4-1 against the spread in Knoxville this year. That is good for 71.4%. Not only has Tennessee won seven in a row, but they have covered the spread in six of those games. Tennessee is by far one of the hottest teams in the country.
While their offense has taken that next step, Tennessee’s defense has still been a strong unit. The Volunteers are third in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Because of this, the under has hit in five of Tennessee’s last six games despite the offense putting up at least 80 points in the majority of those games.
Kentucky vs Tennessee Prediction
Tennessee might be one of the hottest teams in college basketball, but they just went through a gauntlet on their way to clinching the #1 seed in the SEC Tournament. Besides it being a rivalry game, the Volunteers do not have much to play for in this one.
Kentucky, on the other hand, is still playing for seeding and would like to avenge their 11-point loss to Tennessee from earlier in the season. The Wildcats have played well, and more importantly, have played well on the road.
Kentucky’s offense is eighth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and can score inside and out. They will find ways to score against Tennessee’s talented defense, and the Vols could likely come out a little flat to start this game. In a rivalry game such as this one, give me the underdog.
Pick: Kentucky +7.5 (-108)
The highly anticipated matchup between the Tennessee Volunteers and the Kentucky Wildcats is set to take place on Saturday, March 9th. Both teams have had successful seasons thus far, with Tennessee currently ranked #5 in the nation and Kentucky ranked #6. This game is crucial for both teams as they jockey for position in the SEC standings and look to improve their seeding for the upcoming NCAA tournament.
Tennessee comes into this game with a record of 27-3 overall and 15-2 in conference play. Led by head coach Rick Barnes, the Volunteers have been one of the top teams in the country all season long. Their balanced scoring attack, led by Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield, has been tough for opponents to handle. Tennessee also boasts one of the top defenses in the nation, holding opponents to just 67.2 points per game.
On the other side, Kentucky has had a solid season as well, with a record of 25-5 overall and 14-3 in conference play. Head coach John Calipari has once again assembled a talented roster led by freshman sensation PJ Washington. The Wildcats have shown their ability to compete with the best teams in the country, with wins over the likes of North Carolina and Kansas.
As for predictions and odds for this game, it is expected to be a close and hard-fought battle between two top teams. Tennessee will have the advantage playing at home in front of their raucous crowd, but Kentucky has shown they can win on the road as well. The odds may slightly favor Tennessee, but anything can happen in college basketball.
In terms of key matchups to watch, the battle in the paint between Grant Williams and PJ Washington will be crucial. Both players are versatile forwards who can score inside and out, and whoever wins that matchup could swing the game in their team’s favor. Additionally, the guard play will be important as well, with Tennessee’s Jordan Bone and Kentucky’s Tyler Herro looking to make an impact.
Overall, this game has all the makings of a classic showdown between two powerhouse programs. Fans can expect a high-energy, intense game that could come down to the wire. Regardless of the outcome, both teams will be looking to make a statement as they gear up for postseason play.
