- The Yankees are slim favorites over the Guardians to advance to the World Series
- We are focusing on the total for our Yankees vs Guardians Game 5 prediction
- Read below for Yankees vs Guardians prediction, odds and starting pitchers for Game 5
The New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians clash in Game 5 of the ALCS at Progressive Field on Saturday, October 19, 2024. First pitch is set for 8:08 p.m. ET, with the game broadcast live on TBS.
The Yankees, holding a commanding 3-1 series lead, are on the brink of their first World Series appearance since 2009. The Guardians, meanwhile, are battling to extend their season in front of their home crowd.
Let’s dive into our Yankees vs Guardians prediction for Saturday, along with a breakdown of the odds and starting pitchers.
Yankees vs Guardians Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total Runs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | -120 | -1.5 (+140) | Over 7.5 (-112) |
| Guardians | +100 | +1.5 (-160) | Under 7.5 (-108) |
The oddsmakers have the Yankees as slight -120 favorites on the moneyline, implying a 54.5% chance of victory. The Guardians are +100 underdogs, with an implied probability of 50%.
The run line favors the Yankees at -1.5 (+140), while the Guardians are +1.5 (-160). The total runs line is set at 7.5, with the over juiced to -112 and the under at -108.
Given the offensive firepower on both sides and the betting trends pointing towards a high-scoring game, the over 7.5 runs at -112 looks like the most attractive bet on the board.
Odds as of Oct. 19, at BetMGM Sportsbook. Grab a BetMGM bonus code or check out available MLB betting apps for the World Series.
Yankees vs Guardians Game 5 Prediction
It’s hard not to like the Yankees’ chances of wrapping up the series in Game 5. New York has been the better team throughout, outscoring Cleveland 21-14 and outhitting them .258 to .229. The Yankees’ power has been on full display, with 10 home runs compared to just four for the Guardians.
Giancarlo Stanton has been the driving force behind the Yankees’ offense, launching three homers in the ALCS and posting a staggering 1.136 OPS. Aaron Judge, who had been relatively quiet, broke out with key home runs in Games 2-3. The Yankees’ big bats appear to be clicking at the right time.
Aaron Judge with a game-tying home run off Emmanuel Clase. Clutch as it gets. pic.twitter.com/vHxIsaqxmq
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) October 17, 2024
The Guardians, to their credit, have shown resilience, mounting late-inning comebacks in Games 3 and 4. However, they’ve struggled to consistently generate offense, scoring four runs or fewer in three of the four games. Jose Ramirez, their best hitter, is batting just .188 in the series.
Looking at the pitching matchup, it’s hard not to like the Yankees’ chances. Carlos Rodon was absolutely brilliant in Game 1, allowing just one run over six innings while striking out nine. On the other hand, Tanner Bibee struggled mightily, giving up three runs in just 1 1/3 innings.
While I lean New York on the moneyline to wrap this up, the “over” of 7.5 is my best bet. The Guardians are desperate and will be going all out to keep their season alive, while the Yankees’ bats show no signs of slowing down.
The betting trends further support my Yankees vs Guardians Game 5 prediction. The over has hit in four of the five games played at Progressive Field between these clubs in 2024. Furthermore, Pinnacle, one of the sharper sportsbooks, has bumped this number up to 8.
ALCS Game 5 Pick:
- Over 7.5 Runs (-112)
Starting Pitchers
The starting pitching matchup features a rematch of Game 1, with left-hander Carlos Rodon taking the ball for the Yankees and right-hander Tanner Bibee getting the nod for the Guardians.
Rodon
VS
Bibee
| 16-9 | Record | 12-8 |
| 3.96 | ERA | 3.47 |
| 1.22 | WHIP | 1.12 |
| 9 K, 0 BB in ALCS Game 1 | Last Start | 3 R, 5 H in 1.1 IP in ALCS Game 1 |
| 4.69 ERA, 104 K in 94 IP | Road/Home Splits | 4.15 ERA, 99 K in 93 IP |
Rodon has been fantastic for New York all season, posting a 16-9 record with a 3.96 ERA. He was even better in his Game 1 start, allowing just one run over six innings while racking up nine strikeouts. Betting on Rodon to go over 7.5 strikeouts looks like a solid prop bet.
Bibee, on the other hand, will need to bounce back in a big way after getting shelled in Game 1. The rookie right-hander lasted just 1 1/3 innings, giving up three runs on five hits. If Bibee struggles again, the Guardians will likely turn to their bullpen early, which has been taxed heavily in recent games.
Yankees vs Guardians Injury Report
No significant new injuries to report for either team heading into Game 5. The Yankees have managed to overcome the absences of DJ LeMahieu (hip) and Jonathan Loaisiga (shoulder), while the Guardians are relatively healthy but have a fatigued bullpen, with closer Emmanuel Clase showing signs of wear.
The New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians are set to face off in Game 5 of their series, and fans are buzzing with excitement as they eagerly await the outcome of this highly anticipated matchup. With both teams boasting strong lineups and talented rosters, it’s anyone’s guess as to who will come out on top.
As the teams prepare to take the field, many experts are weighing in on their predictions for the game. The Yankees, who have been on a hot streak as of late, are favored to win by many analysts. With sluggers like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton leading the charge, the Yankees have the firepower to put up big numbers on the scoreboard.
On the other hand, the Guardians have been playing solid baseball and have shown that they are not to be underestimated. With a strong pitching staff and a lineup that can produce runs, the Guardians have the potential to pull off an upset and secure a victory in Game 5.
When it comes to the odds, sportsbooks have the Yankees listed as the favorites to win, with odds of -150. The Guardians, on the other hand, are the underdogs with odds of +130. This means that a $150 bet on the Yankees would net a $100 profit, while a $100 bet on the Guardians would result in a $130 profit if they were to come out on top.
Ultimately, Game 5 is shaping up to be a thrilling showdown between two talented teams. Whether you’re a Yankees fan or a Guardians supporter, one thing is for certain – this game is sure to be one for the books. So grab your popcorn, settle in, and get ready for an exciting night of baseball as these two teams battle it out for supremacy on the diamond.
