Predictions and Best Odds for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons in Thursday Night Football (Week 5)

• The lead in the NFC South is on the line when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the Atlanta Falcons on TNF in Week 5
• The Bucs lead the division at 3-1 with the Falcons (and Saints) a game behind
• Below, see the Buccaneers vs Falcons predictions, picks, and best odds for Thursday Night Football on Oct. 3

Week 5 already brings a huge game in the NFC South as the division-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1, 1-0 away, ATS) visit the Atlanta Falcons (2-2, 1-2 home, ATS), who would take over first place with a victory. This is Atlanta’s fourth home game in five weeks, leaving just five more the rest of the season so the Falcons can ill-afford to fall two games back of the Bucs if they harbor legitimate hopes of an NFC South crown.

The Buccaneers vs Falcons odds list Atlanta as 1.5-point home favorites across the board in the Week 5 NFL odds, with the game total ranging from 43.5 to 44.0.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons Predictions & Picks

• Falcons moneyline (-125) at ESPN Bet – 2.0 units

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The Buccaneers have looked like Super Bowl contenders some weeks, and were crushed by the Denver Broncos (26-7) the other. Despite their 3-1 record, they only sit 14th in DVOA, one spot ahead of the 2-2 Falcons (15th).

Preseason handicapping projected the Falcons as a considerably stronger team. The 2024 NFL win totals listed Atlanta with at 10.5 O/U, two full games higher than the Bucs at 8.5.

It’s taking Kirk Cousins time to develop chemistry with his new group of receivers, and the continued lack of production from TE Kyle Pitts (eight receptions, 105 yards in four games) is mindblowing for a player with his physical talents, but I expect the veteran Cousins to start getting a little more out of his talented corps of skill-position players as the weeks go by.

This is the Kyle Pitts I see when I close my eyes and dream pic.twitter.com/NBz1CC33vI

— Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek) September 23, 2024

The Falcons have also been a good bet to win at home in recent history. In the 2022 and 2023 seasons, Atlanta went 11-6 straight-up at home, while posting a horrendous 3-14 record in road games. While they’re just 1-2 at home so far this season, a back-and-forth 22-17 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs can certainly be excused. My main takeaway from watching that game was that the Falcons aren’t going to be overmatched by anyone on their home turf, not even the two-time defending Super Bowl champs.

The Buccaneers have an undeniably high ceiling, as evidenced by a 20-16 road win at Detroit and last weeks’ 33-16 rout of the Eagles, which they led 24-0 midway through the second quarter. But the current spread is recency bias. Atlanta would have been laying 3.5 or 4.0 in the lookahead lines before Week 1. Getting the Falcons to win at basically a pick’em price is solid value.

The NFL public betting percentages currently show 69% of moneyline handle on Atlanta (as of 2:30 pm ET on Wednesday). So if this line is going to move, it’s only going to get shorter for the Falcons.

Best Available Buccaneers vs Falcons Odds

The Bucs vs Falcons odds show very little discrepancy across sportsbooks. Every single North American book lists the spread at Atlanta -1.5. The only difference at the moment is that FanDuel has Tampa to cover at -105 odds (and Atlanta at -115). All other sportsbooks have the ATS lines at -110 both ways.

Not coincidentally, FanDuel also has the best odds on Tampa Bay to win straight-up, listing the Buccaneers moneyline at +114. Tampa is +105 at most other sportsbooks. The best odds on an Atlanta victory are -125, which can be found at Bet365, DraftKings, Caesars, BetMGM, and ESPN Bet right now.

As mentioned above, there is a half-point range in the total. FanDuel and ESPN Bet still have the line at 43.5, which is where the total stood in the opening NFL Week 5 odds. All other books have moved the total up half a point to 44.0 (-110).

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face off against the Atlanta Falcons in a highly anticipated Thursday Night Football matchup in Week 5 of the NFL season. Both teams are coming off of wins in Week 4 and will be looking to continue their momentum in this divisional showdown.

The Buccaneers, led by future Hall of Famer Tom Brady, have been one of the most explosive offenses in the league this season. Brady has been connecting with his talented receiving corps, including Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Rob Gronkowski, with ease. The Buccaneers also boast a strong running game with Ronald Jones II and Leonard Fournette leading the way.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Buccaneers have been solid, led by linebacker Devin White and defensive lineman Ndamukong Suh. They will look to put pressure on Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan and force turnovers to give their offense good field position.

The Falcons, on the other hand, have had a rough start to the season but are coming off of a much-needed win against the Washington Football Team in Week 4. Ryan has been playing well despite the team’s struggles, and he will look to continue that success against a tough Buccaneers defense.

The Falcons have a talented receiving corps of their own, with Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley posing a threat to any defense. Running back Todd Gurley has also been solid for the Falcons, providing a balanced attack on offense.

In terms of predictions and best odds for this matchup, the Buccaneers are currently favored to win by a touchdown according to most sportsbooks. The over/under for total points scored is set at 52.5, indicating that this could be a high-scoring affair.

Given the Buccaneers’ strong offense and solid defense, they are likely to come out on top in this game. However, divisional matchups are always unpredictable, so anything can happen on Thursday night.

Overall, this game promises to be an exciting one for football fans, with two talented teams battling it out for supremacy in the NFC South. Make sure to tune in to see who comes out on top in this Thursday Night Football showdown.