Prediction, Pick & Betting Line for Liberty vs Oregon Game on Friday, March 21st

• Or Liberty vs Oregon prediction focuses on the game total
• Liberty ranks 3rd nationally in 3PT defense, holding opponents to 28% shooting
• See my Liberty vs Oregon prediction, pick, and line for their March Madness matchup

The 12th-seeded Liberty Flames (28-6) face the 5th-seeded Oregon Ducks (24-9) in a 5-12 matchup to close out Friday’s first-round action. The East Region clash tips off at 10:10 p.m. ET from Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, WA, with truTV providing the broadcast.

Spread betting is the most popular March Madness wager, but I love an over/under play in my Liberty vs Oregon prediction for Friday night.

Liberty vs Oregon Prediction (East Region 1st Round)

My prediction is that this will be a low-scoring grind that stays comfortably under the 137.5-point total. Several key factors point to a slow-paced defensive battle:

First, sharp money has come in heavily on the under, driving the line down a full two points from the 139.5 opener to the current number of 137.5. Whenever the wiseguys move a March Madness line that significantly, it’s worth paying attention.

The betting market’s expectation for a low-scoring affair aligns with what we’ve seen from Oregon recently. The under is 7-1 in the Ducks’ last eight contests. Coach Dana Altman’s squad ranks an impressive 29th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency.

On the other side, Liberty plays at a snail’s pace, ranking 285th in adjusted tempo. The Flames also boast the nation’s third-best perimeter defense, limiting opponents to a paltry 28% from beyond the arc. Liberty’s pack-line scheme is designed to limit penetration and challenge outside shots.

Liberty vs Oregon Efficiency Rankings

Oregon’s size and length will also be a major factor. The Ducks rank 110th in rebounding rate and start 7-footer Nate Bittle. They should control the glass against the undersized Flames, who rank outside the top-290 in average height. Limiting Liberty’s second-chance opportunities will be key.

Another issue for Liberty is their dreadful 65.4% free throw shooting, which ranks 348th in the country. Even if they do manage to generate some offense, the Flames may leave key points at the line in a close game.

Finally, the cross-country trek to Seattle for a late tip-off is a tough travel spot for the East Coast-based Flames. Oregon should be much more comfortable with the Pacific time zone. Sluggish starts are common for teams with this type of itinerary.

Liberty vs Oregon Pick

• UNDER 137.5 Total Points (-105) at BetMGM

I’m backing the Under 137.5 at BetMGM, where we can get it at -105 odds, a nice price considering many other books are dealing 137 flat. This total feels a tad high given the pace, defensive metrics, and situational spot.

Liberty’s low-possession style shortens the game and reduces the number of shot attempts for both teams. Unless Oregon completely abandons their usual approach and pushes tempo, points should be at a premium in this 5-12 showdown.

Liberty vs Oregon Line

The best odds on Liberty +7.5 are widely available at -110, while their moneyline ranges from +230 to +245 depending on the sportsbook. Oregon is favored by 7.5 points, and the juice on their -7.5 spread is -110 to -112 across the board.

Odds current as of March 21, 2025 at BetMGM.

The college basketball public betting trends show an even 50/50 split on the spread, but 79% of tickets are on the Over as of Friday afternoon. However, while the Under has only received 21% of bets, it’s gotten 46% of the money — another sign this is the sharp play.

The Liberty Flames will face off against the Oregon Ducks in a highly anticipated matchup on Friday, March 21st. Both teams have had successful seasons thus far, but only one will come out victorious in this game. Let’s take a look at the prediction, pick, and betting line for this exciting showdown.

Prediction:

The Liberty Flames have been on a hot streak lately, winning seven of their last eight games. They have a strong defense that has been able to shut down some of the best offenses in the country. On the other hand, the Oregon Ducks have been inconsistent this season, with some impressive wins but also some disappointing losses.

In this matchup, I predict that the Liberty Flames will come out on top. Their defense will be able to contain the Oregon offense, while their own offense will be able to put up enough points to secure the win. Look for Liberty to control the pace of the game and come away with a hard-fought victory.

Pick:

Based on my prediction, my pick for this game is the Liberty Flames. They have been playing at a high level recently and I believe they have what it takes to defeat the Oregon Ducks. Look for Liberty to come out strong and maintain their lead throughout the game.

Betting Line:

The betting line for this game is currently set at Liberty -3.5. This means that Liberty is favored to win by 3.5 points. If you choose to bet on Liberty, they will need to win by at least 4 points in order for you to win your bet. If you choose to bet on Oregon, they can either win the game or lose by less than 4 points for you to win your bet.

Overall, this game is sure to be an exciting matchup between two talented teams. Keep an eye on the Liberty Flames to come out on top and cover the spread in this game. Good luck to all bettors and enjoy the game!