Prediction, Odds, and Player Props for Miami vs Florida Game on August 31st

Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier talks with Florida Gators quarterback Graham Mertz (15) during fall football practice at Heavener Football Complex at the University of Florida in Gainesville, FL on Thursday, August 1, 2024. [Matt Pendleton/Gainesville Sun]

• In-state rivals Miami and Florida meet in Gainesville on Saturday, August 31
• With coveted Washington State transfer Cam Ward under center, Miami is a 2.5-point road favorite
• See the Miami Hurricanes vs Florida Gators predictions, player-prop picks, and best odds for Week 1

Longtime rivals renew hostilities in Week 1 of the 2024 college football season as the Miami Hurricanes (7-6, 2-3 away, 6-7 ATS) travel to Gainesville to face the Florida Gators (5-7, 4-2 home, ATS) for the first time in half a decade.

Miami and Florida will meet at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium at 3:30 pm ET on Saturday, August 31. With highly-coveted Washington State transfer Cam Ward starting at quarterback, the visiting Hurricanes are slight favorites, despite going just 2-3 on the road last year. Miami opened as 2.5-point chalk and remains at that number.

Miami vs Florida Prediction & Picks

• Miami moneyline (-135) at DraftKings
• Over 54.0 (-105) at FanDuel
• Xavier Restrepo over 81.5 receiving yards (-115) at bet365

The Hurricanes managed to go 7-5 in the regular season last year thanks to a strong, takeaway-heavy defense that generated 18 turnovers in 12 games. But, led by underwhelming QB Tyler Van Dyke, who never lived up to his recruiting hype, the offense was very inconsistent. The Hurricanes averaged just 26.8 PPG in regulation time against its nine Power 5 opponents. Giveaways were a big part of the problem, with Van Dyke accounting for nine of the team’s 22 turnovers.

Ward represents a big step up under center. Despite throwing 152 more pass attempts with the Cougars last year, Ward had just seven INTs against his 25 TD passes. Wazzu only finished 5-7 thanks to a horrendous six-game losing streak mid-season, but Ward and company went toe-to-toe with national runner-up Washington in the 2023 Apple Cup, losing 24-21 on a last-second field goal. Ward, himself, threw for 317 and three TDs with two picks.

Ward will have a talented group of skill-position players to work with at Miami. The Hurricanes are returning 79% of their offensive production, including leading receivers Xavier Restrepo (1,092 yards, six TDs) and Jacolby George (864 yards, eight TDs), along with promising (but injury-prone) tight end Elijah Arroyo, who missed all but one game last year with an ACL injury.

Last year’s overcrowded running-back room (four different players had at least 70 carries and 361 rushing yards) has been whittled down to standout sophomores Mark Fletcher Jr (514 yards on 105 carries) and Ajay Allen (361 yards on 70 carries). Sportsbooks are optimistic about how all the pieces will fit together in Coral Gables, listing Miami with a win total of 9.0 in this seasons college football win totals, with the over favored at -125.

While there are likely to be some growing pains for Ward in his new surroundings, the UF defense is a decent draw for Week 1. After a strong-ish 5-2 start to 2023, the Gators trended way down over the final five weeks, going 0-5 and allowing 38.2 PPG in the process. Billy Napier’s team returns just 66% of its production on the defensive side of the ball (compared to 70% on offense).

At the same time, I expect the UF offense to have its share of success against the Canes. Senior QB Graham Mertz provides a significant level of continuity under center, while two of his top-three receivers (Eugene Wilson III and Arlis Boardingham) join work-horse senior running back Montrell Johnson (817 on 152 carries) at the skill positions.

The Gator offense should be a step ahead of the Miami defense, which is returning just 58% of its own production in 2024. Expect something resembling a shootout between these two in-state rivals.

Best Miami Hurricanes vs Florida Gators Odds

The point spread is sitting at Miami -2.5 across the board in the Week 1 college football odds. There are slight variations in the ATS odds, with DraftKings listing Florida at -108 to cover and Miami at -112, but the vast majority of books have both sides at -110.

On the moneyline, BetMGM has the best odds on a Florida straight-up victory at +120 while DraftKings has the best Miami moneyline at -135.

Like the spread, the game total is sitting at 54 at every sportsbook. Those looking to bet over 54 can get it at -105 at FanDuel. The best price for under 54 bettors is -108 at DK.

The college football public betting splits for Week 1 show the Gators getting slightly more of the ATS handle (52%) but Miami getting way more of the moneyline handle (90% as of Friday afternoon).

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