- No. 3 Illinois and No. 14 Morehead State battle in Thursday Madness action
- The college basketball odds favor the Fighting Illini at home
- Read on for Illinois vs Morehead State prediction, odds, and player props
No. 3 Illinois (26-8) opens the 2024 March Madness tournament with a first-round matchup against No. 14 Morehead State (25-8) on Thursday afternoon. Tip-off is scheduled for 3:10 PM ET in Omaha, Nebraska, with truTV carrying the broadcast.
The college basketball March Madness odds favor the Fighting Illini by 11.5 points at home, while the over/under is set at 147.5. NCAAB player props are also available for Thursday’s match between Illinois and Morehead State.
Let’s get into our Morehead State vs Illinois prediction, as we determine the best bets to make.
Morehead State vs Illinois Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morehead St | +11.5 (-105) | +550 | Over 147.5 (-110) |
| Illinois | -11.5 (-115) | -800 | Under 147.5 (-110) |
In the Morehead State vs Illinois odds for Thursday, the Fighting Illini are heavy -800 spread favorites, giving them 89% implied win probability.
Neither of these teams cracks the top 10 in the 2024 March Madness odds, with Illinois sporting +2500 odds to win the tournament. Morehead State, meanwhile, is a +8000 longshot.
Odds as of March 20th, 2024 at BetMGM Sportsbook. Register today and apply our exclusive BetMGM promo to wager on March Madness. If you have already registered at MGM, check out the top college basketball betting apps.
Eagles Betting Trends
Morehead State enters this contest on a six-game winning streak following a 69-55 victory over Little Rock in the OVC tournament championship game. Riley Minix contributed 26 points and seven boards in the victory, marking the 12th time in the past 13 games he’s gone over 20 points.
Minx’s point total for Thursday is set at 19.5 in the college basketball player props, with plus-money odds on the over. We’re targeting that line in our Eagles vs Illini prediction.
The Eagles boast an experienced roster led by several standout seniors. Senior guard Drew Thelwell has been a part of all 94 wins since he arrived in 2020, recently setting the school single-season assist record. Another guard, Kalil Thomas, is in the top 20 nationally with 103 3-pointers this season.
First practice in Omaha for @msueaglesmbb! #SoarHigher #MarchMadness
📸 Thomie Griffin pic.twitter.com/ifMDjRI8Dl
— Morehead State Athletics (@MSUEagles) March 19, 2024
Morehead State ranks 71st nationally in offense this season, averaging 77 points per game. Defensively, they are allowing 65 points per contest (106th). The Eagles have excelled at three-point shooting.
Turning to the betting trends, Morehead State was 9-7 straight up as the visiting team this season. They were also 9-7 against the spread on the road, while sporting an 18-11-1 ATS record overall.
Fighting Illini Betting Trends
Illinois enters its opening March Madness game on a four-game winning streak, including a 93-87 victory over Wisconsin in the Big Ten Title Game. Terrence Shannon Jr. scored 34 points on 15-for-17 shooting from the free-throw line, while Marcus Domask added 26 points, eight assists, and seven rebounds.
A major storyline surrounding the Fighting Illini is the team’s inability to advance past the first weekend of the NCAA tournament. In three straight years, Illinois has lost its opening game, including last season, when it fell to Arkansas as small underdogs.
The Fighting Illini are led by the dynamic one-two punch of guard Terrence Shannon Jr. and forward Marcus Domask, who average 23.0 and 16.0 points a game, respectively. These two stars have played a big role in the team owning the eighth-best offense nationally (84.4 points/GP).
While Illinois can put up points with ease, their defense is lackluster. The Fighting Illini are allowing 73.8 points per game, which ranks 242nd in the country. Brad Underwood’s team is 15-3 at home but has only covered the spread in eight of those games.
Morehead State vs Illinois Prediction
This spread is in line with college basketball advanced metrics. Ken Pom, one of the most trusted CBB rating systems, is predicting an 82-70 victory for the Fighting Illini in Omaha. The system ranks the Illini 92nd in defensive efficiency, which is quite superior to what the numbers might indicate.
While we like Illinois to secure victory on Thursday, we see value in Morehead State against the spread. Illinois had an easier path in the Big Ten tournament, beating teams like Ohio State, Nebraska, and Wisconsin, which are not top-tier opponents within the conference.
According to historical CBB betting trends, Big Ten champions are only 2-7 against the spread in the last nine years following Selection Sunday. Furthermore, NCAA tournament favorites with a point spread of 10.5 or more have a win rate of only 44.8% against the spread.
Morehead State has the x-factor in this game with Riley Minix, who is capable of putting the team on his back. Not to mention, the Eagles’ bread-and-butter is their three-point shooting, and the Illini’s 3-point defense ranks 214th nationally and 13th in the conference.
MSU vs ILL Picks:
- Morehead State +11.5 (-105)
- Riley Minix Over 19.5 Points (+100)
On March 21st, college basketball fans will be treated to an exciting matchup between Morehead State and Illinois in the NCAA Tournament. As the two teams prepare to face off, many fans and bettors are eager to make their predictions and place their bets on the game.
The odds for this matchup are currently in favor of Illinois, who are the higher-seeded team and have had a strong season so far. However, Morehead State should not be underestimated, as they have shown that they are capable of pulling off upsets in the past.
When it comes to betting props for this game, there are a few key factors to consider. One important factor is the point spread, which is currently set at around 10 points in favor of Illinois. Bettors will need to decide whether they believe Illinois can cover the spread or if Morehead State will keep the game close.
Another popular betting prop for this game is the over/under, which is currently set at around 135 points. Bettors will need to decide whether they believe the total score of the game will be higher or lower than this number.
In addition to these traditional betting props, there are also a number of player-specific props that bettors can wager on. For example, bettors can place bets on which player will score the most points in the game, which player will record the most rebounds, or which player will make the most three-pointers.
Overall, the matchup between Morehead State and Illinois promises to be an exciting and competitive game. With a variety of betting props available, fans and bettors alike will have plenty of opportunities to get in on the action and make their predictions for this highly anticipated game.
