Predicting the Odds and Pick for the San Diego State vs Cal College Football Game on Saturday Night

California Golden Bears quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) during warm ups before Auburn Tigers take on California Golden Bears at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, Ala., on Saturday, Sept. 7, 2024.

• San Diego State vs Cal is featured on Saturday Night Football
• The Week 3 CFB odds favor the Golden Bears by a wide margin
• Read below for SDSU vs Cal odds, pick and prediction for September 14

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Two undefeated teams from the Golden State clash under the lights in Berkeley on Saturday night. The San Diego State Aztecs invade California Memorial Stadium to battle the California Golden Bears. Kickoff is slated for 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

The Bears have looked like a different animal under Justin Wilcox, starting 2-0 SU and ATS with impressive wins over UC Davis and Auburn. Can they keep that momentum rolling as hefty 17.5-point home favorites over the Aztecs? Or will San Diego State pull off the upset?

Let’s dive into the odds, betting splits, and matchups as we make our SDSU vs Cal prediction.

San Diego State vs California Odds

The Golden Bears have been one of the most impressive teams in college football through two weeks, and oddsmakers have taken notice. Cal opened as 17.5-point home favorites, with the line holding steady throughout the week. At -1200 on the moneyline, the Bears have an implied probability of 92.3% to win the game outright.

Odds as of Sep. 14, 2024 at ESPN Bet. Register with the ESPN Bet promo code to bet on Saturday night football.

Meanwhile, the Aztecs are massive +750 moneyline underdogs, translating to just an 11.8% chance of pulling off the upset. San Diego State has covered the spread in seven of its last eight road games, but they’ll have their work cut out for them against a Cal team that is 4-2 ATS in its last six contests.

The total opened at 50.5 but has since been bet down to 47.5, suggesting sharp bettors are expecting a lower-scoring defensive battle. The under has hit in each of Cal’s last five games and 14 of San Diego State’s previous 20 Saturday road tilts.

SDSU vs CAL Public Betting

Joe Public is all over the Aztecs in this spot, with 87% of both tickets and money backing San Diego State to cover the hefty 17.5-point spread. However, the line has yet to move, indicating oddsmakers are comfortable with their opening number and not worried about the lopsided action.

Unsurprisingly, bettors want no part of the Aztecs on the moneyline, with 99% of tickets and 100% of dollars on the heavily favored Golden Bears.

As for the total, 57% of bets are on the under, but a whopping 80% of the money is expecting a low-scoring affair, further evidence that respected wagers are pounding the under.

Aztecs Betting Analysis

San Diego State’s offense runs through senior running back Marquez Cooper. The Ball State transfer has already racked up 276 rushing yards and two TDs in his first two games with the Aztecs. The 5’10”, 205-pound bruiser averaged 5.1 yards per carry against a tough Oregon State defense last week.

However, the Aztecs will only go as far as true freshman quarterback Danny O’Neil can take them. The Mishawaka, IN product struggled mightily in the 21-0 loss to the Beavers, completing just 11-of-24 passes for 107 yards.

To make matters worse, O’Neil is dealing with a lingering left knee injury suffered in the opener. If he can’t go or is limited, look for FSU transfer AJ Duffy or redshirt freshman Javance Tupou’ata-Johnson to get the nod.

On the outside, Colorado State transfer Louis Brown IV has been O’Neil’s favorite target. The junior leads the team with 136 receiving yards and a TD on five catches, averaging an impressive 27.2 yards per reception.

The Aztecs’ defense has been stout, allowing just 17.5 points per game. Sophomore linebacker Tano Letuli has been a standout, racking up 15 total tackles so far.

For SDSU to pull off the upset, they’ll need a monster game from Cooper and much-improved play from their inexperienced signal-caller, whether it’s O’Neil or one of the backups. The defense will also have to find a way to slow down Cal’s high-powered passing attack.

Bears Betting Analysis

The Golden Bears have been a surprise team of the early college football season, jumping out to a 2-0 start with a pair of impressive victories. Sophomore QB Fernando Mendoza has been the catalyst, completing 69% of his passes for 391 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions.

Mendoza’s go-to guy has been freshman phenom Nyziah Hunter, who has hauled in all three of the QB’s touchdown passes among his eight receptions for 91 yards. The Emeryville product had two scores in the Bears’ stunning 21-14 upset of Auburn as 11.5-point road underdogs.

However, Cal could be without star running back Jaydn Ott, who is questionable with an ankle injury after being held to just 11 yards on 10 carries against the Tigers.

That Jaydn Ott guy is kinda good 😏

Cal extends its lead on the second TD from its star running back. pic.twitter.com/nT1dcg67S4

— Cal Rivals (@CalRivals) August 31, 2024

If the San Bernardino native can’t suit up, expect sophomore speedster Jaivian “Jet” Thomas to handle the bulk of the backfield work after rushing for 72 yards and a TD on 5.1 yards per carry through two games.

The Bears’ defense has been absolutely suffocating, allowing just 295 yards per game and ranking tied for first in the nation with seven interceptions. Junior ball hawk Nohl Williams leads the way with three picks, while senior linebacker Teddye Buchanan has a team-high 20 tackles and two sacks.

As long as Mendoza keeps slinging it and the defense continues to force turnovers, Cal should have no trouble taking care of business at home, even if Ott is sidelined.

San Diego State vs Cal Prediction

I know the public is heavy on San Diego State and the points, but I just don’t see how the Aztecs keep this within three scores. The Bears’ defense is playing at an elite level right now and should feast on whichever green quarterback San Diego State trots out there.

On the other side of the ball, Mendoza is in a groove, and the Cal offense shouldn’t miss a beat, even without Ott. Give me the Golden Bears to win comfortably and cover the 17.5-point spread.

I also love the value on the under 47.5, which has seen the line drop three points thanks to some sharp action. Totals that drop at least three points from open end up cashing the under well over 50% of the time. Trust Cal’s defense to dominate this game and keep the total under.

Saturday Night Football Picks:

• California -17.5 (-110)
• Under 47.5 (-105)

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