- The 151st Kentucky Derby runs on Saturday, May 3 from Churchill Downs
- There are many intriguing longshots in “The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports” in 2025
- See below for my favorite Kentucky Derby longshot picks for 2025
Who doesn’t love betting on a longshot? The Kentucky Derby is the perfect opportunity for bettors to win big payouts by wagering on horses with longer odds. Last year, Mystik Dan won the Kentucky Derby at 18-1 odds, so a $10 wager would have resulted in a $190 payout. Some other recent longshots to win the Running for the Roses were Country House (30-1) in 2019 and Rich Strike (80-1) in 2022.
Betting on longshots is just one way to get in on the action at the Derby. Whether you are looking to bet on horse racing for the first time or just want a quick refresher, check out our horse racing guide to see how to bet on the Kentucky Derby.
Kentucky Derby Longshots
Journalism enters the 2025 Kentucky Derby as the +300 favorite and is followed closely by Sovereignty at +500 in the latest Kentucky Derby odds. Journalism got a strong post position at 8, so he will likely receive a lot of bets to win. Post No. 8 has the second-most wins at nine, and Mage was the last to win from that post in 2023. Sovereignty, on the other hand, got a worse draw and will be running from Post No. 18. Only two horses have won from that position.
There is a lot of value for bettors looking for horses with longer odds. They are less likely to win, but they offer much larger payouts. Anything can happen in the most exciting two minutes in sports, so let’s take a look at the Kentucky Derby longshots that provide the most value in 2025.
Luxor Cafe has Triple Crown Pedigree
The 3-year-old Japanese colt is the son of American Pharoah, who won the Triple Crown in 2015. With the bloodline of a champion, Luxor Cafe provides great value at 15-1 odds. It is risky to bet on Japanese horses as none have ever won the Kentucky Derby, but that does not mean they have not had success internationally. Forever Young was a talented Japanese horse in the Kentucky Derby last year, and he finished third in what was a photo finish.
This horse is fast and is probably one of the fastest horses in the field. In his last race at the Fukuryu Stakes, he won by five lengths and finished the last furlong in 12 seconds. He has great acceleration and should be able to finish near the front.
In six starts, he has one second place finish and has won four in a row. Luxor Cafe has Triple Crown DNA, knows how to win, and has a favorable post position at 7. He is a great longshot bet to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby
TizTastic Offers Value
At 20-1, I am betting on Tiztastic to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby as a longshot. He is the son of Tiz the Law, who finished second at the 2020 Kentucky Derby.
TizTastic most recently won the Louisiana Derby and is a finisher. He has the closing speed needed at the 1 1/4 mile Kentucky Derby, so we should see him making a late push towards the end of the race.
He has raced at Churchill Downs twice in his career and has a second and a third-place finish. He has eight races under his belt, so Tiztastic enters the Kentucky Derby with a lot of experience. Tiztastic’s running style fits perfectly at Churchill Downs, and he is a great Kentucky Derby longshot to bet on.
Bob Baffert is Back
After serving a suspension, one of the best horse trainers is back at Churchill Downs. Bob Baffert has trained two triple crown winners, and in 2025, he is back at the Running of the Roses with Citizen Bull.
Citizen Bull is 20-1 to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby. He has the speed to do it, but he got an unfavorable post position at 1. He will need to get out of the gates quickly and needs a little luck, but it is hard to count out any horse that is trained by Bob Baffert.
He won his debut race, then finished in third in the second race. After that, Citizen Bull won three in a row. At that moment, it seemed like his Kentucky Derby odds were going to be near the top of the board, but then he had an underwhelming fourth-place finish at the Santa Anita Derby in his last race. I believe he is better than that finish in a race that had a lot of strong contenders, featuring the Kentucky Derby favorite, Journalism. Betting on a Bob Baffert-trained horse at 20-1 is a great longshot wager.
Best 2025 Kentucky Derby Longshot Pick: Luxor Cafe (+1500)
The Kentucky Derby is one of the most prestigious horse races in the world, known for showcasing the best three-year-old thoroughbreds in the sport. While favorites like Journalism are always a popular pick, there are also some potential longshot contenders that could surprise everyone and come out on top in the 2025 race.
One such longshot pick is Luxor Cafe, a promising colt with a strong pedigree and impressive performances in recent races. Trained by a seasoned professional and ridden by a skilled jockey, Luxor Cafe has been steadily improving and could be a dark horse to watch out for on Derby day.
Another longshot contender to keep an eye on is Tiztastic, a filly with a lot of heart and determination. Despite facing tough competition in previous races, Tiztastic has shown flashes of brilliance and has the potential to pull off an upset in the Kentucky Derby. With the right strategy and a bit of luck, this underdog could surprise everyone and steal the show.
Lastly, Citizen Bull is another longshot pick that shouldn’t be overlooked. This colt has been steadily improving with each race and has shown a lot of promise in recent workouts. With a strong support team behind him and a never-say-die attitude, Citizen Bull could be a sleeper pick to watch out for in the 2025 Kentucky Derby.
While Journalism may be the favorite going into the race, it’s always exciting to see an underdog come out of nowhere and steal the spotlight. Luxor Cafe, Tiztastic, and Citizen Bull are just a few potential longshot picks that could shake up the field and make the 2025 Kentucky Derby one to remember. Keep an eye on these dark horses as they could surprise everyone and upset the odds on race day.
