- The LA Dodgers bring a 2-1 lead into Game 4 of the NLCS against the New York Mets on Thursday
- Los Angeles starts Yoshinobu Yamamoto on Thursday against New York’s Jose Quintana
- See the Dodgers vs Mets Game 4 odds, predictions, and public betting splits on Oct. 17
Coming off their second shutout victory of the NLCS, the Los Angeles Dodgers (98-64, 46-35 away) look to take a 3-1 stranglehold against the New York Mets (89-73, 46-35 home) in Game 4 on Thursday night at Citi Field (8:08 pm ET). With the red-hot Jose Quintana on the mound, New York is still a slight underdog in Thursday’s Dodgers vs Mets odds.
Dodgers vs Mets Odds (Game 4)
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | -135 | -1.5 (+125) | O 7.0 (-120) |
| New York Mets | +115 | +1.5 (-150) | U 7.0 (-100) |
The Mets are listed as +115 home underdogs the Thursday’s MLB odds with the Dodgers priced as -135 road favorites. LA is also +125 on the runline to win by two or more, while the Mets are -150 to keep the score within a run. All five of the Dodgers’ postseason wins to date have been by at least two runs.
Odds as of Oct. 17 at BetMGM. Claim the latest BetMGM promo code to bet on the MLB playoffs.
The Dodgers are neck-and-neck with the Yankees at the top of the updated World Series odds, both hovering between +110 and +125. The Yankees hold a 2-0 lead on the Guardians in the ALCS heading into their Game 3 on Thursday night. (See my Yankees vs Guardians picks here.)
LAD vs NYM Game 4 Starting Pitchers: Yamamoto vs Quintana
| Yamamoto | vs | Quintana |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | Record | 10-10 |
| 3.00 | ERA | 3.75 |
| 3.44 | xERA | 4.49 |
| 1.11 | WHIP | 1.25 |
| 28.5% | K% | 18.8% |
Jose Quintana has been nothing short of magnificent for the Mets in the playoffs. He’s given up just one unearned run across 11.0 innings in two starts against the Brewers and Phillies, allowing six hits and three walks while striking out 11. His postseason K-rate has jumped to 25.0% from just 18.8% in the regular season.
The bad news for Mets fans is that the Dodger hitters have absolutely crushed him in his career, and the sample size is big. In 154 ABs, the LAD lineup has a .299 average against Quintana. He has managed to mostly keep the ball in the park, though, givin up just four home runs in those 154 at-bats (one each from Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Kike Hernandez, and Will Smith).
Yamamoto made on start against the Mets in his rookie season, and it was very mediocre. He managed to go six full innings, giving up three runs on seven hits and a walk with nine Ks.
He had a brutal first start in the postseason, getting rocked for five runs on five hits and two walks over just 3.0 innings in a 7-5 Game 1 win over the Padres. But he was much better in the decisive Game 5, allowing just two hits, no walks, and no runs over 5.0 innings, though he only managed a pair of strikeouts.
LAD vs NYM Public Betting Splits
| Team | Moneyline | ML Handle% | ML Bet% | Runline | RL Handle% | RL Bet% | Run Total | O/U Handle% | O/U Bet% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | -135 | 89% | 81% | -1.5 (+125) | 79% | 85% | O 7.0 | 59% | 78% |
| NYM | +115 | 11% | 19% | +1.5 (-150) | 21% | 15% | U 7.0 | 41% | 22% |
Thursday’s MLB public betting splits and money percentages show the vast majority of handle and tickets on the Dodgers to win. As of 1:25 pm ET, 89% of moneyline handle was on LAD to win, leaving just 11% on the Mets. The public also loves the Dodgers -1.5 at plus-money, putting 79% of runline handle on Las Angeles, as well.
The public was more divided on the run total, slightly favoring over 7.0 (59% of handle).
Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Game 4 Predictions
Jose Quintana is a savvy veteran, but it’s hard to foresee his shutout streak continuing against a Dodger lineup that’s long had his number. He hasn’t posted a K-rate over 20.2% in any of the last three seasons, and his 2024 postseason numbers are bound to regress.
I don’t expect Yamamoto to be perfect, either, but the Mets lineup is certainly less familiar with him, and he generated plenty of swings-and-misses in his first career start against New York. Factor in that the LAD bullpen is vastly outperforming the NYM pen in the postseason (2.75 ERA vs 4.76 ERA) and I am jumping on the Dodger moneyline at -135.
LAD vs NYM picks:
The Los Angeles Dodgers will face off against the New York Mets in Game 4 of their National League Division Series on October 17th. The Dodgers currently lead the series 2-1 after a thrilling Game 3 victory, but the Mets will be looking to even the score and force a decisive Game 5.
As of now, the odds for Game 4 are in favor of the Dodgers, with many sportsbooks giving them a slight edge over the Mets. However, anything can happen in the playoffs, and the Mets have proven themselves to be a resilient team throughout the season.
When it comes to picks and predictions for Game 4, it’s important to consider the pitching matchups. The Dodgers are expected to start Walker Buehler, who has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. On the other hand, the Mets will likely turn to Marcus Stroman, who has also had a solid year on the mound.
In terms of betting splits, it’s likely that most bettors will be putting their money on the Dodgers to win Game 4. However, there may be some value in betting on the Mets as underdogs, especially if Stroman can deliver a strong performance.
Overall, Game 4 is shaping up to be a competitive and exciting matchup between two talented teams. Whether you’re a fan of the Dodgers or the Mets, this game is sure to provide plenty of drama and excitement for baseball fans everywhere.
