NCAA Tournament: Betting Analysis for Saint Mary’s vs Alabama with Odds, Picks, Props, and Betting Splits

• The #2 Alabama Crimson Tide are 5.5-point favorites vs #7 Saint Mary’s in Round of 32 NCAA Tournament play
• The Gaels enter play Sunday with just a single loss over their last 10 games
• See the Saint Mary’s vs Alabama odds, player props, and predictions for March 23

Two teams that fought off first-round scares at the NCAA Tournament will now battle for spot in the Sweet 16 when the #2 Alabama Crimson Tide (26-8, 19-15-0 ATS) meet the #7 Saint Mary’s Gaels (29-5, 14-19-0 ATS). This East Region matchup tips off on Sunday at 6:10pm ET from Rocket Arena in Cleveland, OH with TNT providing the broadcast coverage.

Check below for the Saint Mary’s vs Alabama odds, player props and my betting prediction.

Saint Mary’s vs Alabama Odds

The second-seeded Crimson Tide enter as healthy 5.5-point favorites in the college basketball odds, and a short -238 on the moneyline. The total comes in at a high 149 points, and settles right in between these schools. The Gaels’ highest total set in the last 10 games has been 142 points, while the lowest total set in Alabama’s last 10 games is 159.5 points.

Odds as of March 23 at DraftKings. Read SBD’s guide to the March Madness betting strategy.

Alabama held off a tough Robert Morris side, eventually outlasting the 15-seeded Colonials in a 90-81 decision. Despite hitting the 90-point plateau, the Crimson Tide shot a rough 6-for-21 from 3-point range, just a 28.6% clip.

They were also unable to contain their defensive boards, giving up 16 offensive rebounds, a big reason Robert Morris had 20 more field goal attempts in the game.

Veteran Mark Sears had 22 points, 10 assists and five rebounds to get ‘Bama off any upset radar.

Saint Mary’s needed to dig down and call upon it’s top-ranked West Coast Conference defense to hold off the Vanderbilt Commodores in Round 1, winning by a close 59-56 margin.

The Gaels dominated the glass 41-28 to offset some poor shooting, as each school shot a rough 22-for-55 from the field, a 40% mark. Jordan Ross had 15 points, three rebounds and three assists to pace Saint Mary’s, one of four starters to hit double digits.

Saint Mary’s vs Alabama Prediction

It’s a contrast of styles between these programs, and I think the Crimson Tide will be able to control the tempo and move to the next round.

The Crimson Tide own KenPom’s top strength of schedule ranking in all of college hoops. They’ve been able to be successful by leaning on an offense that ranks fourth in efficiency at KenPom and first in pace.

Alabama led the nation in scoring at 91.1 points per game, the only school that averaged 90+ points. They led the SEC in shooting from the field at 48.5% and were seventh in 3-point shooting at 34.9%, but attempted a conference-leading 1,004 during the season.

Their scoring has been able to offset a defense that is last in the SEC in points allowed, giving up a whopping 81.4 points per game. To put that into context, only four other schools in the conference score as more points than the Tide surender.

That should be encouraging to the Gaels, as they sit on the other side of the scoring spectrum, ranking seventh in the WCC in scoring at 73.1 points per game.

Saint Mary’s does it’s best to let the air out of the ball. Of the teams left standing in the tournament, they play at by far the slowest tempo, ranked 360th at KenPom.

That slower pace allows for the defense to smother opponents in the half court, and the results are impressive: Saint Mary’s allows just 60.5 points per game, and holds teams to 40.8% shooting from the field, and 30.8% from downtown.

I think the scoring line is quite gettable here, especially as Alabama has been able to score against elite competition. In their last 15 games vs Top 25-ranked teams, the Tide’s lowest output was 64 points. But they still averaged 92.2 points.

Saint Mary’s is going to have to score to keep up, and this one should be touching 150 points.

• Saint Mary’s vs Alabama pick: Over 149 points (-110)

Saint Mary’s vs Alabama Public Betting Splits

The March Madness public betting splits show the public is running with the favorite. A massive 93% of moneyline bets is on the Crimson Tide, with 84% of the moneyline handle going with them as well.

On the spread, 67% of the bets and the money are on Alabama, with Saint Mary’s getting 33% on the other end.

As for the total, 60% of the bets are taking the Under, with 65% of the money going that way. The Over consists of 40% of the best and 35% of the money.

Saint Mary’s vs Alabama Player Props

Saint Mary’s vs Alabama player props from bet365 on Mar 23. Claim the current bet365 bonus code to get a bonus for Sunday’s NCAAM slate.

Mark Sears has the highest scoring total for the Crimson Tide at 17.5 points. The senior had struggled coming into March Madness, scoring 13 or less in three straight games prior to the tourney.

While Sears is the lone Alabama player with a double-digit scoring prop, there are three Gaels: Augustas Marciulionis (15.5), Paulius Murauskas (12.5) and Mitchell Saxen (11.5).

Marciulionis has topped this number just once in his last six outings, and Murauskas just twice over his last six. Saxen has been the most consistent of the bunch, topping his total in four of the last six.

The NCAA Tournament is heating up as we head into the Sweet 16 round, and one of the matchups that has caught the attention of bettors is the showdown between Saint Mary’s and Alabama. Both teams have had impressive runs in the tournament so far, but only one will advance to the Elite Eight. Let’s take a closer look at the betting analysis for this game, including odds, picks, props, and betting splits.

First up, let’s look at the odds for this matchup. As of now, Alabama is favored to win with odds of -6.5, while Saint Mary’s is the underdog with odds of +6.5. The over/under for total points scored in the game is set at 140.5. These odds give us a good indication of how the sportsbooks are viewing this matchup and where the betting action is likely to fall.

In terms of picks, many experts are leaning towards Alabama to cover the spread in this game. The Crimson Tide have been playing well throughout the tournament and have a strong offense that can put up points in a hurry. On the other hand, Saint Mary’s has been a bit more inconsistent and may struggle to keep up with Alabama’s pace. However, upsets are common in March Madness, so anything can happen in this game.

When it comes to props, there are a few interesting options to consider for this matchup. One prop bet that could be worth looking at is the total points scored by both teams combined. Given the high-scoring potential of both teams, taking the over on 140.5 points could be a smart play. Another prop bet to consider is the first-half spread, as Alabama has been known to come out strong in the first half of games.

Finally, let’s take a look at the betting splits for this game. According to recent data, the majority of bets are coming in on Alabama to cover the spread, with around 60% of bettors backing the Crimson Tide. This could be a sign that the public is confident in Alabama’s ability to win and cover in this matchup. However, it’s always important to do your own research and not just follow the crowd when placing bets.

In conclusion, the matchup between Saint Mary’s and Alabama is shaping up to be an exciting one for bettors. With odds favoring Alabama, picks leaning towards the Crimson Tide, and betting splits showing a majority of bets on Alabama, it will be interesting to see how this game plays out. As always, make sure to do your own analysis and consider all factors before placing any bets on this NCAA Tournament matchup.