Men’s Olympic Tennis Final: Djokovic vs Alcaraz – Predictions, Odds, and Head-to-Head Analysis

Aug 2, 2024; Paris, France; Novak Djokovic (SRB) reacts after wining a semi-final match against Lorenzo Musetti (not pictured) during the Paris 2024 Olympic Summer Games at Stade Roland Garros. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports

• Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz clash in a blockbuster Olympic gold medal match
• Alcaraz is a -225 favorite to win his third major title of 2024
• Read on for our Djokovic vs Alcaraz betting preview, including odds, predictions and best bets

The 2024 Paris Olympics men’s tennis tournament has delivered the dream final, as all-time great Novak Djokovic takes on young phenom Carlos Alcaraz for the gold medal on Sunday. It’s a rematch of their epic Wimbledon final from just a few weeks ago, which Alcaraz won in dominant fashion.

For Djokovic, this is likely his last chance to capture the only major prize missing from his illustrious trophy case. Meanwhile, 21-year-old Alcaraz is looking to complete a historic triple by adding Olympic gold to his French Open and Wimbledon titles this summer.

So who will be standing atop the podium when the dust settles on Court Philippe-Chatrier? Let’s break it down in our betting preview.

Djokovic vs Alcaraz Odds

Alcaraz is a substantial -235 favorite to win gold, which implies a 69.23% probability. Djokovic is a +190 underdog, or a 33.3% chance to pull the upset. The game spread favors Alcaraz by 3.5 games, highlighting oddsmakers’ belief that he will win comfortably.

Odds as of August 3nd, 2024 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

The total of 22.5 games is on the lower side for a best-of-three match, another indication that a convincing Alcaraz victory is expected. The over on 22.5 games is priced at -106, while the under is at -128. For the over to hit, the match would need to be reasonably competitive – something like a 7-6, 6-4 Alcaraz win.

The gold medal match will take place on Sunday, August 4th, on Court Philippe-Chatrier at Roland Garros Stadium in Paris. The exact start time is to be determined, but it will be broadcast live on NBC/Peacock in the USA.

Djokovic vs Alcaraz Head-to-Head

Djokovic and Alcaraz have split their six previous meetings, but it’s Alcaraz who has won two of their three major finals. Most recently, the Spaniard routed Djokovic 6-2, 6-2, 7-6(4) to defend his Wimbledon crown.

Djokovic vs Alcaraz H2H Results

Their head-to-head record shows Alcaraz has had the edge in their most important matches. He’s won both of their Roland Garros meetings in straight sets, suggesting his game matches up well with Djokovic’s on clay.

Djokovic did beat Alcaraz on a hard court in Cincinnati last year, indicating he can still get the better of the young Spaniard in faster conditions. But Alcaraz was just coming off his first Wimbledon title then and may have been emotionally drained.

Since that loss, Alcaraz has reeled off four consecutive wins over the Serbian legend.

Alcaraz Betting Analysis

There’s no doubt Alcaraz has been the sport’s most dominant player in recent months. He’s won the last two majors, the French Open and Wimbledon, without dropping a set. His explosive game, built around a huge forehand and incredible court coverage, has simply been too much for the rest of the tour to handle.

In Paris, Alcaraz has continued his stellar play, not losing a set en route to the final.

Alcaraz 2024 Paris Olympics Results

Alcaraz has been utterly ruthless, dropping just one set (in a tiebreak) through five matches. He demolished 8th seed Felix Auger-Aliassime in the semis, conceding a mere two games in a 6-1, 6-1 masterclass.

A look at Alcaraz’s tournament stats shows just how dominant he’s been:

• 90% first serve points won
• 82% service games won
• 54% return games won
• 62% break points converted

Those are off-the-charts numbers indicative of a player at the absolute peak of his powers. Alcaraz’s return game, in particular, has been a huge weapon – he leads the tour in return games and break points won in 2024.

If Alcaraz can maintain this level of play, it’s hard to see how even a player of Djokovic’s caliber can withstand the onslaught. The Spaniard’s ability to take the ball early, change direction, and finish points with his forehand is unmatched when he’s at his best.

Djokovic Competing for Legacy

An Olympic singles gold is the only major achievement missing from Djokovic’s exceptional career. Despite reaching the semifinals in 2008 and 2012, and the bronze medal match in 2016, he has yet to claim the top spot. At 37, Djokovic recognizes this may be his last opportunity to fill this gap in his resume.

There’s no questioning Djokovic’s determination, but there are some doubts about his form and fitness. He underwent knee surgery after withdrawing from the French Open, and has struggled at times with the injury during this event.

Djokovic 2024 Paris Olympics Results

Djokovic hasn’t been as dominant as Alcaraz, but he’s still found a way to battle through some tough matches and reach the final without dropping a set. His mental toughness was on full display in his quarterfinal against Stefanos Tsitsipas, where he overcame a 0-4 second set deficit and a medical timeout for his knee to prevail in a tiebreak.

And while the stats from his semifinal win over Lorenzo Musetti weren’t pretty – he hit just 12 winners against 23 unforced errors – Djokovic’s ability to raise his level on the biggest points was evident. He saved all seven break points he faced, including three when serving for the first set, and was clinical in the key moments.

Djokovic vs Alcaraz Prediction

As much as Djokovic craves this gold medal, and as great a champion as he is, it’s extremely hard to bet against Alcaraz right now. The 21-year-old has taken his game to new heights in 2024 and will be supremely motivated to make history with a calendar Golden Slam in singles.

I expect Djokovic’s pride and competitive fire will help him avoid another shellacking like the one he suffered at Wimbledon. He’s too good a player to let that happen again. But over a best-of-three set format on clay, Alcaraz’s youth, speed, power and consistency should ultimately prove too much.

Look for Alcaraz to start fast, Djokovic to fight back in the second set, but the young Spaniard to rise to the occasion in the decider. A tight three-set victory would solidify Alcaraz’s status as the new king of tennis and mark a symbolic passing of the torch from one all-time great to the next.

Olympic Tennis Final Picks:

• Carlos Alcaraz def. Novak Djokovic 6-4, 4-6, 6-3
• Djokovic +3.5 games (-118)
• Over 22.5 (-106)

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