- The Indiana Hoosiers visit the Oregon Ducks in the penultimate regular-season game for both teams
- Indiana has turned its season around with three straight wins, but the Ducks have won five straight after a five-game skid
- Below, see my Indiana vs Oregon predictions, plus the player props and odds for Tuesday’s game in Eugene
A massive game in the Big Ten takes place on Tuesday night when the Oregon Ducks (21-8, 11-4 home, 10-8 Big Ten, 19-11 ATS) host the Indiana Hoosiers (18-11, 4-5 away, 9-9 Big Ten, 16-13 ATS) at Matthew Knight Arena in Eugene, OR, at 6:00 pm PT/9:00 pm ET. Despite the Hoosiers coming in hot (winners of three in a row), the even-hotter Ducks (winners of five straight) are big 7.5-point home favorites in today’s college basketball odds.
Indiana vs Oregon Odds
The Indiana vs Oregon odds also set the Ducks as short -303 moneyline favorites, which equals a 75.19% implied win probability. The Hoosiers are priced as +240 road underdogs to win straight-up, which is just a 29.41% implied win probability. The over/under is sitting at 147.5 with the under slightly favored at -115.
Odds as of March 4th at BetMGM. Lock in this week’s BetMGM promo code to get a bonus to use on college basketball.
Neither team has shown any strong trends on the total this season. The Ducks are 15-14 O/U while the Hoosiers are 13-16 to the under. That hasn’t stopped the public from hammering the over in this game, though. According to SBD’s college basketball public betting splits, 91% of game-total handle is on the over as of 11:05 am ET.
Last time out, Oregon smashed USC (82-61) for its fifth straight win, third in a row at home. Keeshawn Barthelemy led the way with 20 points while leading-scorer Jackson Shelstad added 19.
Oregon’s best win during its current streak was arguably its most-impressive victory of the entire season: a 77-73 OT win at Wisconsin (#10 at KenPom), powered by 23 points from senior center Nate Bittle.
Indiana also comes in winners of three in a row, which followed on the heels of six losses in seven games from Jan. 22 to Feb. 14. They took down Purdue (73-58 home), Penn State (83-78 home), and Washington (78-62 away) leading up to their clash with the Ducks.
The return of forward Malik Reneau has been huge for Indiana. The 6’9 junior has been IU’s leading scorer in four of nine games since returning from injury in late January. He paced the Hoosiers with 15 in the dominant win over arch-rival Purdue and 22 in the rout of Washington last time out.
Neither team is viewed as a credible threat to go all the way in the NCAA Tournament. The Ducks head into Tuesday as a +12000 bet to win the national championship in the March Madness title odds. Indiana is considerably lower on the list at +35000.
IU vs ORE Player Props
IU vs ORE player props from bet365 on March 4. See SBD’s list of the top online casinos.
Shelstad (13.4 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 2.7 APG) leads the point totals tonight at 15.5 O/U followed by teammate Bittle (13.3 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 1.7 APG) at 14.5. Mackenzie Mgbako (12.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.1 APG) has the highest total on the IU side at 13.5, though Reneau isn’t on the board.
Hoosier center Oumar Ballo (13.4 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 2.3 APG) has the highest rebound total at 7.5.
Indiana vs Oregon Predictions
Indiana currently sits 43rd in overall efficiency at KenPom, ten spots below #33 Oregon. Neither team does anything exceptionally, but it’s notable that Oregon is a solid 58th in the nation in defending the three-point line (31.5%) while Indiana is just 250th in three-point percentage (32.4%).
That said, IU coach Mike Woodson appears to have recognized that perimeter shooting is not his team’s bread-and-butter; Indiana only takes 33.3% of its attempts from beyond the arc, which is 325th out of 364 DI team. Oregon is much more vulnerable in the post, allowing opponents to shoot 51% from inside the arc (183rd in the country).
Of Oregon’s five straight wins, three have been tight contests (with a margin of victory of six points or fewer). The two routs were against teams that rank significantly lower than Indiana: 75-57 vs #69 Rutgers, and 82-61 vs #61 USC.
I expect IU’s solid front court to give the Hoosiers an edge on the glass and in the post, which will be enough to keep this game close.
Indiana vs Oregon Picks:
- Indiana +7.5 (-115)
- Oumar Ballo over 11.5 points (-110)
- Oumar Ballo over 7.5 rebounds (-115)
Sascha Paruk’s 2024-25 NCAAM betting record: 30-20 (+7.20 units). All wagers 1 unit unless expressly stated otherwise.
On March 4th, college basketball fans will be treated to an exciting matchup between the Indiana Hoosiers and the Oregon Ducks. Both teams have had successful seasons so far, with Indiana boasting a record of 18-11 and Oregon sitting at 19-8. This game is sure to be a close one, with both teams fighting for a crucial win as they head into the final stretch of the regular season.
When it comes to the odds for this game, sportsbooks currently have Oregon listed as a slight favorite. The Ducks are favored by 2.5 points, with the over/under set at 141.5 points. This indicates that oddsmakers are expecting a relatively high-scoring game between these two teams.
In terms of player props, there are a few key players to keep an eye on in this matchup. For Indiana, guard Trayce Jackson-Davis has been a standout player all season, averaging 19.3 points and 9.4 rebounds per game. He will be a key player for the Hoosiers in this game, and bettors may want to consider taking the over on his points and rebounds total.
On the Oregon side, guard Will Richardson has been a consistent scorer for the Ducks, averaging 11.9 points per game. He will be a player to watch in this matchup, and bettors may want to consider taking the over on his points total as well.
As for predictions for this game, it is shaping up to be a close one. Both teams have shown that they are capable of competing with some of the best teams in the country, and this game could go either way. Ultimately, I believe that Oregon will come out on top in a close contest, with their depth and experience giving them the edge over Indiana.
In conclusion, the March 4th matchup between Indiana and Oregon is sure to be an exciting game for college basketball fans. With close odds, key player props to consider, and a competitive matchup on the horizon, this game is one that you won’t want to miss. Be sure to tune in and see which team comes out on top in this crucial late-season showdown.
