Late-Night Football: Predictions, Odds & Picks for Nevada vs Hawaii Game on October 26th

• Hawaii is a 2-point favorite over Nevada in Week 9 College Football action on Saturday, October 26
• The line has flipped 4.5 points since odds were first released earlier in the week
• Keep reading for the Nevada vs Hawaii predictions, odds and picks

If you think the college football sweat is over after Saturday’s primetime games, think again. Nevada (3-5, 0-2 MWC) and Hawaii (2-5, 0-2 MWC) wrap up tonight’s slate in a game that won’t kick off until 11:59 pm ET at the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, in Honolulu.

This game has seen major line movement in the College Football odds throughout the week. The Wolfpack opened as 2.5-point favorites, but it didn’t take long for that to change.

Nevada vs Hawaii Odds

That’s because Nevada is dealing with an injury at quarterback. Online sportsbooks quickly reacted, and have been moving the line in the Rainbow Warriors direction ever since.

Hawaii is currently favored by 2-points, in a contest with a total of 44.5. Even after all that line movement, the Rainbow Warriors are still drawing 65% of the spread money per the College Football public betting trends.

Total-wise, the over/under is down three points since its opener. The line at the moment sits at 44.5, with the under garnering 94% of the total wagers.

Odds as of October 26 at 1 pm ET. Be sure to check out the best Caesars Sportsbook promos before placing a bet on any Week 9 College Football matchup.

Nevada’s QB Conundrum

The injury to Nevada starting QB Brendon Lewis is a major concern. Lewis is on pace for the best season of his college career, throwing for 1,290 yards and a career-high 10 touchdowns through eight games. He’s completing a personal best 67.2% of his throws, and leads the team in rushing attempts, while ranking second in yards and touchdowns.

We 🫶 QB touchdowns

Lewis rushes in for his first TD of the night!

Pack leads 21-17

📺 CBS Sports#BattleBorn | #Launch pic.twitter.com/xt3j4iVMyD

— Nevada Football (@NevadaFootball) October 19, 2024

Lewis was forced out of last week’s loss versus Fresno State with an undisclosed injury. He’s officially listed as questionable as of Saturday afternoon, but the major line movement for tonight’s game suggests he won’t play.

His dual-threat abilities are the cornerstone of the Wolfpack offense, and they don’t have a reliable backup to replace him. Head coach Jeff Choate hasn’t announced if it will be Chubba Purdy or Hawaii native AJ Bianco in Lewis’ likely absence, but neither is a great option.

Chubba Purdy and AJ Bianco Career Passing Stats

Purdy has a career completion rate of 53% in five collegiate seasons, with more interceptions (7) than touchdowns (6). Bianco, meanwhile, completed less than 55% of his throws as a freshman in 2023, throwing five picks and absorbing 14 sacks in only 96 drop backs.

Wolfpack Will Lean Run Heavy

Nevada leans run heavy even with Lewis under center, but that will be amplified should he sit. The Wolfpack boast a top-40 rushing offense, with Savion Red averaging 6.6 yards per carry.

The problem is, Hawaii’s defense is more susceptible to the pass. They rank outside the top-100 in opponent passing yards and completion percentage, but middle of the pack versus the run. The Rainbow Warriors won’t be intimidated by either one of the Nevada backup QB’s, which should allow them to focus more heavily on stopping the run.

A Get Right Spot for Hawaii’s Passing Attack

On the other side of the ball, there’s no secret to what Hawaii wants to do. Their run-and-shoot offense throws at the nation’s third highest rate, and Nevada’s pass defense is underwhelming to say the least.

The Wolfpack are yielding 7.8 yards per pass and a completion rate of 62%. They have one of the lowest sack percentages in the country (2.93%), and they commit penalties at one of the highest rates.

This version of the Rainbow Warriors offense looks nothing like the glory days when head coach Timmy Chang was under center, but this is an opportunity for them to turn the corner.

13+2=6️⃣#BRADDAHHOOD x #GoBows

📺 The CW pic.twitter.com/FM10WCTk1h

— Hawaii Football (@HawaiiFootball) October 19, 2024

Brayden Schager has already thrown for 1,788 yards and 13 TD, and there’s a good chance his number one weapon is back on the field. Pofele Ashlock, who leads the team in receptions, receiving yards and TD, is expected to return after missing last week’s loss to Washington State.

Nevada vs Hawaii Prediction

It takes a lot to move a point spread 4.5 points. Online sportsbooks hung a bad number and are likely going to pay for it. It’s telling that even at -2, Hawaii is still the preferred side. They have the personnel to shut down the Nevada run game, and should find success with their passing attack.

Going to the island is tough for any visiting team, especially one relying on its backup QB. The Rainbow Warriors have dominated this matchup in recent years, and we should expect them to claim victory again. They’re 4-1 in their last five meetings with Nevada, outscoring them by 65 points.

• Hawaii Moneyline (-125)

The Nevada Wolf Pack will face off against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors in a late-night football showdown on October 26th. Both teams are coming off of wins in their previous games and will be looking to continue their momentum in this matchup.

Nevada currently sits at 4-3 on the season and is coming off of a dominant 41-38 victory over San Jose State. The Wolf Pack have been led by quarterback Carson Strong, who has thrown for over 2,000 yards and 16 touchdowns so far this season. Strong will look to continue his impressive play against a Hawaii defense that has struggled at times this season.

On the other side of the ball, Hawaii is also coming off of a win, having defeated New Mexico 45-31 in their last game. The Rainbow Warriors are led by quarterback Chevan Cordeiro, who has thrown for over 1,500 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. Cordeiro will look to exploit a Nevada defense that has given up an average of 31 points per game this season.

In terms of odds, Nevada is currently listed as a slight favorite in this matchup, with most sportsbooks giving them a -3.5 point spread. The over/under for the game is set at 60 points, indicating that oddsmakers are expecting a high-scoring affair.

As for picks, this game could go either way, but I believe that Nevada will come out on top in a close contest. Strong’s ability to move the ball through the air should give the Wolf Pack the edge in what could be a shootout. However, Hawaii’s explosive offense could keep them in the game until the final whistle.

Overall, this late-night matchup between Nevada and Hawaii promises to be an exciting one for football fans. With both teams looking to continue their winning ways, it should be a closely contested game that could come down to the wire. Be sure to tune in on October 26th to see who comes out on top in this thrilling showdown.