Jun 23, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies second base Bryson Stott (5) against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
- The Philadelphia Phillies (55-29) visit Wrigley Field on Tuesday night to take on the Chicago Cubs (39-46) in the first game of a 3-game series.
- Michael Mercado (0-0, 0.00 ERA) will make his first MLB start for the Phillies. Hayden Wesneski (2-4, 3.60 ERA) will get the ball for the Cubs.
- Keep reading for our top picks from Tuesday night’s National League showdown.
The Phillies have the best record in baseball. The Cubs are in last place in the NL Central. Yet for Tuesday night’s showdown between Philadelphia and Chicago at Wrigley Field, the Cubbies are actually favored to win. Why is that? The pitching matchup has a lot to do with it. We’ll break down the starting pitchers and make some predictions for the game below. First pitch is set for 8:05 p.m. ET and the game can be seen on TBS.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Picks
- Phillies moneyline (+105)
- Over 9.5 runs (+100)
- Bryson Stott over 1.5 total bases (+110)
The Phillies are a ghost squad right now, having been ravaged by injuries. Both of their top sluggers, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, are on the 10-day injured list. Yet the Phillies just keep rolling, racking up wins at the best rate in baseball.
On a warm, breezy summer night at Wrigley Field, I expect Philadelphia to continue to shine. If the Cubs had one of their better pitchers going, I might be more tempted to pick them. But I’ll take the +105 odds on Philadelphia, which you can find at bet365.
Since this isn’t the best pitching matchup, as Michael Mercado is making his first-ever major league start and Hayden Wesneski has bounced between the rotation and bullpen this year, I also expect both teams to score some runs. The total runs scored for this matchup should comfortably reach double digits.
And despite the injuries to the big sluggers, Philadelphia still has plenty of pop in its lineup. I’ll take left-handed Bryson Stott to lead the way tonight, posting 2 or more total bases. He has put up 2+ bases in 3 of his last 6 games and finds ways to impact the game even when he’s not collecting base hits. He’s in the leadoff role for the time being, which means he should get plenty of at-bats tonight.
His odds to record 2+ total bases are +110 at bet365. The odds for 10+ runs to be scored are +100. All good values if you think the Phillies can continue to roll on the road.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | +1.5 (-185) | +105 | O 9.5 (+100) |
| Chicago Cubs | -1.5 (+155) | -125 | U 9.5 (-120) |
Odds via bet365 as of Tuesday, July 2. Use bet365 promo code SBDXLM when you register your new account today to receive a choice of welcome bonuses — a first-bet safety net of up to $1,000 or $150 in bonus bets when you place an initial $5+ wager.
As mentioned above, I like the Phillies on the moneyline at +105. If you want to back the Cubs, you’ll find -125 odds waiting. If you think Chicago can win by 2+ runs, you’ll get +155 odds at bet365. The over on runs at 9.5 is even +100 odds, which I also like as one of my picks tonight. The under features -120 odds.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Starting Pitchers
| Michael Mercado | VS | Hayden Wesneski |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 2-4 |
| 0.00 | ERA | 3.60 |
| 33.3% | SO% | 23.5% |
Mercado has only worked 1 inning for the Phillies this season, and it came in relief. So don’t be fooled by that strikeout percentage, as he struck out 1 of the 3 batters he faced. Now he’ll be making his first start in Philadelphia, and it’s coming since Spencer Turnbull recently went on the injured list.
Wesneski has been used mostly in relief recently, but he does have plenty of starting experience under his belt. Don’t expect his strikeout rate to remain at 23.5% the more he works as a starter, though. When he’s expected to throw more innings, he won’t be able to throw at max effort like he does out of the bullpen.
Current Philadelphia batters are only 4-for-19 against Wesneski in their careers, so he has had some success. But I’m expecting a beautiful night at Wrigley, which should lead to the ball carrying. That should pose some problems for both starters.
Adam is an avid college sports fan, covering both football and basketball. During the summer months, he’s all-in on MLB action, favoring pitcher strikeout parlays.
The Philadelphia Phillies will face off against the Chicago Cubs on July 2nd in what is sure to be an exciting matchup between two competitive teams. Both teams have had their ups and downs this season, but they are both looking to come out on top in this game.
One key pick for this game is the starting pitchers. The Phillies are expected to start Aaron Nola, who has been one of the team’s most consistent pitchers this season. Nola has a 3.97 ERA and a 6-5 record so far this season, and he will be looking to shut down the Cubs’ offense in this game.
On the other side, the Cubs are expected to start Kyle Hendricks, who has also been solid for the team this season. Hendricks has a 4.46 ERA and a 9-4 record, and he will be looking to outduel Nola in this game.
In terms of predictions, this game could go either way. Both teams have strong lineups and solid pitching staffs, so it could come down to which team executes better on the day. The Phillies have been playing well recently, winning seven of their last ten games, while the Cubs have been struggling, losing six of their last ten games.
One prop bet to consider for this game is the over/under on total runs scored. Both teams have the ability to put up runs, so this could be a high-scoring game. The over/under for this game is currently set at 9 runs, so it could be worth taking the over in this matchup.
Overall, this game between the Phillies and Cubs is sure to be a close and competitive one. With strong pitching on both sides and potent lineups, it could come down to which team executes better on the day. Keep an eye on the starting pitchers and consider taking the over on total runs scored for this game.
